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Expanding Commercial Refueling Services Concern Transcom Chief
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble April 24, 2024
CLEVELAND—The head of U.S. Transportation Command (Transcom) said April 24 that she has concerns about expanding the use of commercial air refueling services as a nascent industry competition attempts to draw significantly more business from the U.S. Air Force.
In remarks to the Aerial Refueling Systems Advisory Group, Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost endorsed the U.S. Navy’s current use of commercial air refueling companies, such as Omega and Metrea, for completing carrier qualifications of fighter squadrons ahead of deployments, and for training inexperienced, “baby” Air Force fighter pilots before they need to be refueled over water.
But the prospect of scaling up the use of contracted refueling services could hinder Air Mobility Command’s ability to complete proficiency and combat training among the command’s boom operators and air refueling pilots amidst limited flight hours, Van Ovost said. Congress mandates that the Air Force keeps a minimum fleet of 466 air refueling aircraft.
“The concern I have is the 466 ‘tails’ that we have and the crew ratio that we have and all of them need to get trained,” Van Ovost said. “And they need to get training out in relevant areas. That means [they need to be] forward against weapon systems that they’re going to be refueling in flight so we can practice.”
Air Mobility Command has fewer flight hours than Van Ovost prefers to maintain proficiency levels.
“So as I push the Air Force to get us more flight hours for training, my concern is that they’re making that trade-off [with more use of contractors]. And that’s what I don’t want to happen,” Van Ovost said.
The nature of future conflict could also limit how the Air Force relies on commercial air refueling operators in wartime, she added.
Contractors would not be deployed into conflict zones, she said. But the homeland itself could be targeted for a modern enemy.
“If we think about that, the homeland is no longer a sanctuary,” Van Ovost said. “Then what does that mean for your ability to even refuel off the West Coast or the East Coast? Think about the cyberattacks, [or] the FAA going down. Remember, we just had a radar outage in the Northwest, everybody was down. Right? That’s just us. That’s not even an adversary that’s trying to get after you.”
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Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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U.S. Navy Grounds T-45s After Two Engine Malfunctions In Less Than Month
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 19, 2024
A T-45C Goshawk engine malfunction on April 12 has caused the U.S. Navy to pause flight operations of the type—the second mishap for the trainer in less than a month.
The incident, which required a precautionary landing at Hesler-Noble Field in Laurel, Mississippi, raises the fiscal 2024 tally of Navy Class A aviation mishaps to nine. This is one more than the total for all of fiscal 2023.
Naval Air Forces said in a statement that the Chief of Naval Air Training (CNATRA) is investigating the incident, while Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) is spearheading an engineering investigation. Meanwhile, flights have been paused “out of an abundance of caution” while the commands assess the fleet’s ability to resume flying.
The April 12 incident, first reported by USNI News, follows a March 18 incident in which a T-45C experienced an engine malfunction on takeoff at NAS Meridian, Mississippi, requiring a high-speed abort. Naval Air Forces and NAVAIR have not directly connected the causes of the mishaps, though both are malfunctions of the T-45’s Rolls-Royce Adour engine.
The T-45 fleet in recent years has seen repeated problems with the Adour. In October 2022, a compressor blade shot through an engine at NAS Kingsville, Texas, prompting the service to ground the fleet for 4 1/2 months.
The engine problems and grounding sparked a backlog in training, as CNATRA reported a backlog of about 1,000 pilots in 2023.
The increase in mishaps this year comes after the service had seen a drop in recent years. For example, fiscal 2023’s total was half of the 16 reported aviation mishaps in 2022.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Canada Plans To Spend $5 Billion On AEW Aircraft
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne April 22, 2024
Canada plans to spend more than CDN$5 billion ($3.65 billion) on the acquisition of airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, defense officials have confirmed.
In a statement to Aerospace DAILY, officials for the Canadian Department for National Defense said the funding was of an “appropriate level,” to deliver AEW capabilities and assets.
Acquisition of an organic fleet of AEW aircraft was one of the headline purchases outlined in Canada’s new defense vision, Our North Strong and Free, published April 8.
The document said such a platform would detect aircraft and missiles at long ranges in real time and from much farther away than ground-based radars, then manage the battlespace in response to a threat.
However, the document said that just CDN$307 million was being made available for the program between 2025 and 2044, a fraction of the money needed for one AEW aircraft, let alone a fleet of them to protect Canada’s enormous airspace.
With CDN$5 billion, the prospect of acquiring an AEW fleet is more realistic.
Officials said that the defense policy “presents the accrual costs of a capital asset spread over its useful life, rather than recorded at the time the bills are paid.”
The UK is paying £1.89 billion ($2.33 billion) for three Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft, although had it purchased five as it had originally planned it would have paid £2.15 billion.'
But Canadian officials note that they have “strategies and flexibilities to realign funding needed, when we need it.”
No details were disclosed on when Canada’s acquisition might take place, with defense officials saying that timing for acquisition and delivery “will be confirmed once the procurement strategy is identified.”
Canada is no stranger to AEW capability. It currently provides aircrews and personnel to NATO’s Germany-based Boeing E-3 Sentry force, and the Canadian Armed Forces routinely work with U.S. Air Force E-3s in North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) operations. Depending on when the acquisition takes place, Canada could well look at the E-7 to align with NATO and its Five Eyes partners as the platform is already in service with Australia and being purchased by the UK and U.S. But there is also the parStially homegrown GlobalEye option using locally manufactured Bombardier Global business jets modified with Saab’s Erieye ER airborne radar.
The Our North Strong and Free vision also outlined plans to purchase new tactical helicopters, new satellite communications systems, and long-range strike capabilities for the army.
But critics said the plans only commit to exploring new capabilities rather than funding them, while the burden of increased spending has been placed on future administrations over the next 20 years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, however, insisted that the new policy was merely a starting point and there was more to come in terms of spending plans.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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USAF AI Vs. Human ‘Dogfights’ Show Progression Of Autonomy Tests
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 22, 2024
The U.S. Air Force’s progression to fielding large numbers of uncrewed autonomous aircraft to fight alongside crewed fighters faces a series of major hurdles including basic technological readiness, industry’s ability to build the systems at scale and figuring out how they can be integrated into military operations.
But before all of that, the service has to figure out one key problem: How can autonomy software be effectively tested?
“There’s no current pathway for machine learning control of aircraft, whether in military or civil air,” says Col. James Valpiani, commandant of the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School. “And I think that’s very important when we consider the challenge that we’re facing. We really have a lot of basic science and engineering questions to answer.”
To answer some of these questions, the service has been relying on the X-62 Variable In-flight Simulator Test Aircraft (VISTA)—the dramatically orange, blue and white F-16D that has been modified to on board different autonomy software packages to be evaluated in live flight. For the past two years, the F-16 has been regularly flying at Edwards AFB, California, to test the software in increasingly complex scenarios. This includes live “dogfights” between it and another F-16 starting in September 2023.
The flights are conducted by the Test Pilot School and DARPA’s Air Combat Evolution (ACE) program, the latter of which also conducted the 2020 “AlphaDogFight” event that pitted a human pilot against autonomy in a simulated fight. During that event, the artificial intelligence (AI) programs were given full situational awareness while the human relied on visually identifying the enemy aircraft, and AI swept the fights.
For the VISTA evaluations, both the X-62A and the competing F-16 were outfitted with Secure Live Virtual Constructive Advanced Training Environment (Slate) pods for tracking. The two aircraft were connected with a data link to provide full situational awareness of where each other were in the airspace.
Lt. Col. Ryan Hefron, DARPA’s ACE program manager, said the full situational awareness was “really part of doing this in a safe and responsible way, take it one step at a time, to truly understand how each aspect works before moving on to the next problem.”
During the flights, the aircraft maneuvered close to each other—to within 2,000 ft. and up to 1,200 mph, including with vertical maneuvers and passes nose to nose.
“The incremental buildup is really the hallmark of tests,” Valpiani says. “We want to isolate variables, understand how the aircraft performs, with an understanding of all of the other contexts, and then slowly open up the envelope of things that we’re testing. And so to have an aircraft that receives perfect Slate data, still there are many things that we learned.”
As the one-versus-one flights continue, DARPA and the Test Pilot School are looking to build more confidence in the autonomy to get to multiship flights in which crewed and uncrewed aircraft collaborate.
So far, VISTA has evaluated software from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s AI Accelerator, the Air Force Research Lab and companies involved in ACE—EpiSci, Shield AI, Physics AI and the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. To show confidence in the program, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall says he will fly in the VISTA in the coming weeks.
But VISTA will remain without targeting systems, so its contribution to future Collaborative Combat Aircraft will be limited. Air Force officials have said the first increment of the CCA program will focus on having uncrewed aircraft provide weapons for suppression of enemy air defenses. To pursue this, the Air Force is standing up a unit at Eglin AFB, Florida, called the Viper Experimentation and Next-gen Operations Model-Autonomy Flying Testbed program (Venom-AFT). This will feature three F-16s similarly modified to fly with autonomy software and will have sensors to start training for weapons engagements.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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U.S. Air Force Still Not Flying V-22s, But U.S. Navy, USMC Are
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 17, 2024
While the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy are actively flying and deploying their Bell Boeing V-22 tiltrotors following the three-month grounding that was lifted in March, the U.S. Air Force has not yet returned the aircraft to flight.
The Air Force, which in recent years has been more cautious with its V-22 operations—including grounding its CV-22s before the other services followed suit—attributes the delay to a different approach to the return to flight process focusing on clearing individual aircraft.
Naval Air Systems Command announced March 8 that it had issued a flight clearance for the fleet after all operators grounded their V-22s following a November 2023 crash. That incident, involving an Air Force CV-22 off the coast of Japan in which eight airmen died, has been linked to a material failure though no root cause has been identified.
Following the clearance, officials from each service said they would follow a deliberate return-to-flight process including refresher training and increased maintenance. At the time, officials said the process could take months.
Since the announcement, the Marine Corps has returned its V-22s to extensive operations, including presidential support. The service announced April 16 that its Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 268 was deploying to Australia. On April 13, the Marines posted photos of Ospreys conducting night operations aboard the USS New York as it was underway in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Navy in early April also returned its CMV-22Bs to its ships, with photographs showing operations aboard the USS Wasp in the Atlantic Ocean.
However, no Air Force CV-22s have returned to flight yet.
“The AFSOC CV-22 fleet is executing the deliberate return to flight process,” Air Force Special Operations Command said in a statement. “This process includes simulator training for our CV-22 aircrew, maintenance inspections of our CV-22 aircraft, and a review of each aircraft’s maintenance records as prescribed by the Joint Program Office. As each aircraft is cleared, our aircrew will immediately commence flight operations.”
The situation came up in an April 17 House Armed Services Committee hearing, where top Air Force officials told lawmakers that the command has a slower process to return its aircraft to flight compared to the Marines and Navy.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall says there has been a “very thoughtful, thorough process in place.” AFSOC is looking at each aircraft individually before clearing them to fly, while “the other services are moving forward more quickly.”
Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin added that the CV-22 fleet of aircraft are dedicated to special operations, which means they operate in a different way and in harsher conditions than the other services. This means more complex challenges for both the aircraft and the aircrew.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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USAF: Limited International Interest In Acquiring Retiring A-10s
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 17, 2024
As the U.S. Air Force continues the planned retirement of its A-10 attack jet fleet, the service secretary says one country has reached out with some interest to obtain the aircraft, though he warns there won’t be much support for it when the American fleet is gone.
The Air Force plans to retire 56 of its 265-strong fleet as part of its fiscal 2025 budget plan, with all of the aircraft set to be retired by fiscal 2028. During a House Armed Services Committee hearing on April 17, Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) asked Kendall if the Air Force is talking with other nations, including NATO partners or other treaty allies, to see if there is interest in receiving the aircraft.
Kendall said he currently is not aware of active discussions, though “one country at least has expressed some interest.”
However, once it is out of the U.S. inventory, there “won’t be any base of support for it, so any country that picked it up and tried to sustain it would have a very hard time. It’s also a very old aircraft.”
Kendall did not disclose the nation, though he identified one that has not expressed much interest: Ukraine. While Kyiv will soon receive American-made F-16s, the nation “rightfully would be concerned about their survivability,” Kendall says.
Scott urged the Air Force to meet with like-minded allies to take on some aircraft as it continues divestments.
“We’d be happy to have those conversations. We do transfer excess defense articles,” Kendall says, pointing to recent transfers of C-130s to the Philippines.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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High Or Low? Pilots Disagree On Right Approach, Part 3
Aviation Week - Roger Cox April 18, 2024
The Sierra West Dassault Falcon 20, registered as N283SA, was manufactured in 1967 and last inspected 12 days before the October 2021 crash in Thomson, Georgia. Both engines had recently been removed for maintenance and had only operated for 12 hours before the accident. At its estimated landing weight of 20,280 lb., the appropriate reference speed for landing at Thomson-McDuffie County Airport (HQU) was 113 kts. The minimum field length required was 3,975 ft.
According to the Fan Jet Falcon 20 Aircraft Operating Manual, the speed brakes had two positions—retracted (IN) and extended (EXT). An Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) limitation specified that speed brakes cannot be extended when flaps are deployed on approach, except when anti-ice is in use. In that event, they must be retracted no later than 500 ft. above the ground. The temperature at Thompson at 0530 was 20 deg. C, so icing was not a factor on the approach.
The NTSB performance engineer used ADS-B data from the FAA to plot the jet’s trajectory. Her report showed graphically how the Falcon 20 swung wide left of the localizer, then turned back to intercept it. The airspeed gradually decreased from 168 kts at CEDAR to 137 kts at 400 ft AGL. She calculated the stall speed in the final configuration to be 89 kts at flaps 40, and even with partial flaps and deployed speed brakes, that would not cause the stall warning to sound. Most likely, the warning sounded because the pilots pulled back abruptly on the controls just before collision with the trees.
A performance graphic integrated the captain’s comments with the jet’s final trajectory. In the last two minutes of flight, the captain made eight comments but did not attempt to take control to correct the errant flight path.
The 73-year-old captain lived in Arizona, 447 highway miles from El Paso. His wife said in an interview that he was accustomed to driving that route, and he had done so on Saturday, Sept. 26. He stayed at a company-provided hotel near the El Paso airport. He told her he did not expect to fly on the night of Oct. 4, due to maintenance issues with the jet. He texted her later during the flight, saying the crew was flying through thunderstorms and icing. She said he had a very good relationship with the first officer (FO) and was glad he was assigned to fly with him.
The captain had 11,955 hr. and an ATP certificate with type ratings for the Boeing 737, British Aerospace Jetstream 3100, DC-3, DC-8, and Embraer EMB-110 as well as the DA-20. He also had a glider rating. His last first class medical exam was on Jan. 5, 2021. He had worked for Ameristar Jetcharter before working for Sierra West. He had several training deficiencies in recent years, including check ride failures in 2017, 2019 and 2021. He had trouble with steep turns, circling approaches, and landings.
The FO was 63, had 4,748 hr. and held a commercial certificate with type ratings on the DA-20, Learjet 60, LR-JET series, and Swearingen SA-227. His most recent second-class medical certificate was issued on March 10, 2021. He had trouble with unusual attitudes on a 2019 check ride and was graded “SIC only” on a 2020 check ride. Company officials said he lacked the necessary performance, airmanship, and aeronautical decision making to be promoted to captain.
In an interview, a long-time friend of the first officer said she had talked and texted with him the night of the accident. She said he was accustomed to asking her, “please pray for me,” and he texted this to her while he was in storms during the accident flight.
While the night flight was inherently more fatiguing than a comparable daytime flight, neither pilot said anything about being tired. The flight times and duty day were well within the limitations set by 14 CFR 135.267. That rule requires that each pilot must have had at least 10 consecutive hours of sleep opportunity and less than 14 hr. of on-call duty or 10 hr. of flight time.
Conclusions and Comments
Among the many errors the Falcon 20 crew made during the last 40 minutes of flight, the most egregious was deploying the speed brakes when the gear and flaps were already extended and the power was at idle. This was prohibited by the AFM and created an unrecoverable high drag condition.
The NTSB said as much. The primary probable cause was “the flight crew’s continuation of an unstable dark night visual approach and the captain’s instruction to use air brakes during the approach contrary to jet’s operating limitations, which resulted in a descent below the glide path and a collision with terrain.”
The captain was subject to further criticism. “Contributing to the accident was the captain’s poor crew resource management (CRM) and failure to take over pilot flying responsibilities after the first officer repeatedly demonstrated deficiencies in flying the airplane.” The captain’s refusal to take control and either stabilize the approach or divert to a more manageable airport is inexplicable.
Finally, the NTSB put in a word for safety management systems (SMS). “(Contributing) was the operator’s lack of a safety management system and flight data monitoring program to proactively identify procedural non-compliance and unstable approaches.” The Sierra West director of operations said that an SMS program was under development.
The behavior of this crew brought to mind the guidance in AC120-51E, “Crew Resource Management.” It says “SOPs (standard operating procedures) define the shared mental model upon which good crew performance depends. Too often, well-established SOPs have been unconsciously ignored by pilots and others; in other cases, they have been consciously ignored.” The Sierra West pilots ignored checklists, briefings, callouts, instrument procedures and stabilized approach criteria. To them, SOPs didn’t exist.
The advisory circular also says: “CRM training should instruct crew members how to behave in ways that foster crew effectiveness.” Sierra West Flight 887 might well become one of the best examples of what happens when CRM training doesn’t work.
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Roger Cox
A former military, corporate and airline pilot, Roger Cox was also a senior investigator at the NTSB. He writes about aviation safety issues.
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Iran’s Attack On Israel Is Foiled, But Missile Defense Challenge Grows
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble April 19, 2024
A multinational and multilayered air and missile defense complex stretching hundreds of miles deep and over 60 mi. high foiled an Iranian mass missile strike on Israeli military bases on April 13-14.
• The assault followed two years of missile barrages
• Ukraine’s new front-line defense system reveals an alternative path
The near-perfect performance by air-, land- and sea-based interceptors against more than 300 Iranian projectiles came with caveats. Tehran made little effort to achieve surprise, lacked or withheld forces to suppress or destroy interception attempts downrange and employed a diverse mix of long-range weapons that fell short of state-of-the-art technology. All of these points appeared to be conceded by Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA).
“This one was a little different, maybe, over the weekend, as far as foreshadowing and difficulty,” Collins said in an April 16 keynote speech at the Missile Defense Conference hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association.
But the Iranian barrage—involving more than 170 attack drones, over 100 ballistic missiles and at least 30 cruise missiles—was not an isolated event. And the scale and duration of modern campaigns are driving U.S. officials to search for new ideas, with a focus on a less expensive and more integrated architecture.
Since 2022, an improvised Ukrainian air and missile defense complex has struggled with ammunition shortages and interoperability issues between inherited Soviet and donated Western systems. But even that piecemeal defensive complex—including a new low-cost, front-line layer—has frustrated Russia’s military goals in its a two-year blitz on Ukraine that included more than 8,000 missiles and 4,600 attack drones through February.
In the Middle East, meanwhile, a coalition of Israeli, American and European systems have fought off more than 60 anti-ship ballistic missile and drone attacks by the Houthis since October. The attacks have succeeded in disrupting commercial shipping through the Red Sea, but damage to maritime targets has been limited, with the sinking of a single cargo vessel, the Belize-registered Rubymar container ship, on March 2, according to U.S. Central Command.
More worrisome is that missile attacks continue to evolve in quantity and diversity with each salvo, combining air and missile threats in ways designed to overload a defender’s capacity for ammunition, sensing and decision-making.
“It is getting worse,” Collins said. “When they really want to make it tough on us, they can make it tough on us. And we have got to be prepared for a level of capability and capacity that we haven’t even seen yet today.”
Israel defeated Iran’s April 14 mass assault with volume of its own. An international coalition of fighters shot down all of the attack drones before they reached Israeli territory. By eliminating these slow-moving threats, Israel’s command-and-control system could focus on an Iranian volley of medium-range ballistic missiles, with a handful of interceptions contributed by a U.S. Army Patriot battery in Iraq and U.S. Navy ships in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
An unspoken concern is the volume and sophistication of China’s missile arsenal. The U.S. military estimates the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force alone has fielded more than 3,000 ground-launched missiles as well as additional inventories of air- and sea-launched threats. Such concerns have driven urgent plans to install a multilayer defensive complex on Guam, the island U.S. territory within 1,500 nm of Taiwan. In addition to mass and missile diversity, the challenges for Guam include fending off threats from all directions.
The scale of such a challenge raises new concerns, especially as U.S. officials review the record of recent air and missile defense efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East—as well as fundamental assumptions about the feasibility of a prolonged defensive campaign.
For example, U.S. Navy ships have fired more than $1 billion worth of defensive interceptors in the Red Sea since October, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee on April 16. The value of the defended assets—warships and commercial shipping—justifies the use. But the cost-exchange ratio of firing, say, a $7.8 million Raytheon SM-6 at cheap Houthi attack drones and missiles is problematic in the long term.
John Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy, faulted the current U.S. air and missile defense architecture in his address to the missile defense conference on April 16. The most expensive interceptors are launched at targets first. If any missiles survive, they face shootdown attempts by cheaper alternatives, including machine gun options, such as the Raytheon Phalanx Close-In Weapon System.
“We roughly have that backwards, the way we’re doing it,” Plumb said.
A desperate battlefield innovation by Ukraine’s military showed another path is feasible, he noted. Facing chronic shortages of the most advanced interceptors supplied by Western partners, the country has adapted. Its most expensive surface-to-air missiles are positioned near the most sensitive targets deep behind the front lines, such as Kyiv, Plumb said. In forward areas, Ukraine has constructed a much less expensive alternative. Ground-based acoustic sensors, including cell phones, detect Russian attack drones and low-flying cruise missiles. Those sensors are networked to central command centers, which cue a network of Phalanx-style machine guns to track and shoot down the targets. That preserves the more expensive interceptors to attack only the weapons that leak through.
“You want the first layer as pickets and to let the pickets have the cheapest shots,” Plumb said. “Then you want to see your most exquisite interceptors with the highest cost for leakers.”
Such an architecture is desirable but not easy. In addition to one-way attack drones and subsonic cruise missiles, China has stockpiles of advanced weapons—including maneuvering, hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles—and nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of deploying fractional orbital bombardment systems. The least expensive defenses often lack the speed, range and firepower necessary to shoot down such weapons.
“This kind of layered defense in depth is hard,” Plumb said. “And it’s even harder . . . if maybe the cheapest stuff doesn’t have the legs.”
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Is A Third European Next-Generation Fighter Project In The Offing?
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne April 04, 2024
Having awarded Saab and GKN Aerospace contracts for initial future combat aircraft studies, the Swedish government could be firing the starting pistol on yet another such program for Europe.
With Stockholm eager to preserve its national fighter development capability—and since neither the French, German and Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) nor the Italian, Japanese and UK Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) quite fit its needs—Sweden has launched an effort to work out its next steps.
The Vagval Stridsflyg project—literally “choice of path for combat aircraft”—aims to help the country’s leaders decide by 2030 whether to pursue future combat aircraft development for the 2040s and beyond. The studies aim to develop and mature technologies and pave the way for ground-based and flying demonstrators.
Sweden is modernizing its fleets with the new-generation Saab Gripen E, which will likely operate well into the 2040s, and plans to extend the lives of earlier Gripen C/Ds to keep them in service into the 2030s.
Saab says it will explore both crewed and uncrewed concepts, while GKN Aerospace, which builds the GE Aerospace engines powering both Gripen types, will look at advanced power and propulsion system options for a future platform.
Given that Sweden’s commanders plan to continue the doctrine of operating from dispersed bases and road runways in wartime—despite the country’s entry into NATO—the future platform will have to meet the demands of operating from shorter strips and be easy to maintain in an austere environment.
Options could include buying yet more Gripens and spurring development of collaborative combat aircraft to add mass to the existing Gripen fleet. The studies could also drive the need for a more advanced fighter to deal with new regional threats.
“These [studies] are an important step to clarify technology choices and commercial action options before decisions on how the future combat aviation capabilities are to be supplied,” says Lars Helmrich, director of air and space systems at the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, which contracted the studies. “Considering the long development times and the decisions that need to be made, it is good that the work starts now.”
Sweden had been linked to the UK-led Tempest FCAS, which has evolved into GCAP. Neither the timelines nor the aircraft expected to emerge from FCAS and GCAP would fit Swedish needs, and they would not meet its aim of preserving national combat aircraft development, either.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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U.S., Israel Officials Release Defense Details About Iran Attack
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 14, 2024
Hours after the last Iranian missiles and drones were downed by Israel, the U.S. and multiple other nations, top American officials provided more details on how a layered defense of fighter aircraft, Navy destroyers and air defense systems provided an almost complete defense of the unprecedented aerial attack from Iran.
Iran launched more than 300 missiles and attack drones—both from within its borders and from sites in Iraq, Syria and Yemen—toward Israel. The total included more than 100 medium-range ballistic missiles, more than 30 land-attack cruise missiles and more than 170 attack drones. The vast majority of the threats, particularly the ballistic missiles, were defeated by Israeli forces.
Three senior U.S. officials, in an April 14 briefing, outlined the American response. Boeing F-15Es from the 494th and 335th Fighter Squadrons shot down more than 70 of the drones, along with participation by Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The guided-missile destroyers USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) and USS Carney (DDG-64) shot down between four and six ballistic missiles. Additionally, a U.S. Army Patriot battery near Erbil, Iraq, shot down one ballistic missile.
U.S. Central Command and U.S. European Command surged forces to the region ahead of the anticipated attack. This included the deployment of an additional guided-missile destroyer which was approved by President Joe Biden on April 10. Senior defense and administration officials said the Iranian attack was in the “higher end” of what was anticipated.
Israeli officials released few operational details, but showed videos of F-35I, F-15E and F-16 aircraft and crews returning from air defense missions early on April 14. The Israeli fighters shot down all of the remaining attack drones before they entered Israeli airspace, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said.
The combined defensive efforts allowed only about 1% of the Iranian missile barrage to slip through, resulting in minor damage to infrastructure at Nevatim Air Base in the sparsely populated Negev Desert, the IDF spokesman said.
British Defense Secretary Grant Schapps said in a social media statement that the UK surged additional Royal Air Force aircraft to the region ahead of the attack. These aircraft intercepted and destroyed multiple one-way attack drones, he said.
A senior administration official also highlighted involvement by the French military, though no additional details have been released.
The Jordanian government, in an April 14 statement, said it targeted some of the drones and missiles as they entered the kingdom's airspace in an act of self defense.
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Steve Trimble in Washington contributed to this article.
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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U.S. Invites France, Germany, New Zealand To Join Space Alliance
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 10, 2024
COLORADO SPRINGS—U.S. Space Command has extended invitations to France, Germany and New Zealand to join a high-level collaborative group on military space operations.
If accepted, the three nations would join Australia, Canada and the UK in the U.S.-led Operation Olympic Defender. The operation, first formed in 2020, focuses on sharing intelligence, planning of military operations and other efforts focused on safe operations in space.
Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of U.S. Space Command, announced the invitations during a keynote speech here in Colorado Springs at the 2024 Space Symposium.
Whiting, speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the conference, says the three new nations are already working closely together. This includes in the Space Operations Center at Vandenberg SFB, California, and operations centers in France and Germany.
France and Germany in particular have “a lot of their own space capability for national defense purposes, and we have very positive relationships with them," Whiting says. "We’ve done some exercises together—we’ve done wargames.”
New Zealand is also a part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, Whiting says.
“They have been very interested in increasing their space capability. They have dedicated some of their personnel to support our joint commercial office where they help produce space domain awareness information that we then all use to tip and cue our military operations and our exquisite sensors that we use for military purposes,” he says.
Also on April 9, Whiting announced Spacecom has signed a new space situational awareness agreement with Uruguay. The command has more than 185 information sharing agreements with other nations, along with companies, academia and other intergovernmental organizations.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Pentagon Efforts To Address Pilot Shortage Have Not Produced Results
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 01, 2024
For more than five years, the U.S. Air Force has deemed its pilot shortage a crisis. It has established a task force, approved large-scale increases in retention bonuses and found ways to streamline pilot production to put more personnel into its cockpits.
Come fiscal 2023, the shortage has largely stayed the same, at just under 2,000 pilots. The Air Force is continuing to try to convince pilots to stay in uniform, with renewed outreach that takes a long-term look at career pressures and which retention efforts are actually working. In the meantime, the service is prioritizing its operational and training units while making big reductions in areas such as testing.
• The Air Force is prioritizing operational units, reducing staff roles
• The Navy is spending more on T-45 readiness
“We are listening to aircrews,” Lt. Gen. Adrian Spain, deputy chief of staff for operations and former director of training and readiness, tells Aviation Week. “We want their feedback. We are fighting for it at every opportunity we can, and we are demonstrably trying to meet them in a place that can help incentivize continued service within the confines and constructs they have for support networks, for their culture.”
At the end of fiscal 2023, the Air Force’s pilot shortage grew by 206 from the prior year to 1,848. The service blames increased post-COVID-19 airline hiring and a continuing underproduction in pilot training. Undergraduate pilot training production was stable at 1,300 for 2023, about 200 below a target rate of 1,500 per year.
In some ways, the situation has worsened because the Air Force cannot pinpoint the shortage to individual communities. In the early stages of the crisis, the service could produce mobility pilots faster than fighter pilots, giving tanker and airlift fleets more buffer space in staffing levels. It is all-encompassing today.
“Most communities that we’re talking about have some stress that’s being applied to them,” Spain says.
The Air Force has rolled out various types of bonuses to keep aviators around, yet numbers remain stagnant. Legacy bonus contracts kept 291 pilots in service in fiscal 2023, compared with 285 in fiscal 2019. The service in 2023 launched a bonus demo program for early-career pilots, contracting 230 who had two years until their undergraduate pilot training active-duty service commitment expiration and 143 who had three years.
The Aircrew Crisis Task Force is reaching out directly in a new survey program targeting individual pilots instead of gathering anonymous responses. The first round of questions went out last year. It aims to focus not just on initial feedback but on years of continued engagement, Spain says. He explains that the goal is to “pinpoint things that are working, . . . not working and . . . not measurably making a difference.
“We have one survey right now, and it’s going through the analysis phase,” he says. “But the method of this survey is different in the way that, over time, we can actually measure the change in the sentiment for individuals.”
For now, training and operational units are crewed at about 100%, while testing units are staffed at about 75%, and personnel is lower, though an exact percentage is not available. In February, the service took a dramatic step to try to alleviate the staff shortage, announcing a program to entice back retired officers.
Beyond money, pilots have shared with headquarters concerns about their career paths that make leaving the service and taking an airline job more attractive. These largely focus on improved stability, predictability and flexibility in civilian career paths.
One concern seems basic on the surface but has been complicated to address: Pilots simply want to fly. The Air Force says it budgets flying hours to the maximum executable level, but with many aircraft aging and facing maintenance issues, the hours have been hard to achieve.
Consider the Boeing F-15Es flown by the 366th Fighter Wing at Mountain Home AFB, Idaho. The wing has ongoing maintenance issues with its aircraft, which are more than 30 years old. The base’s maintainers are doing great work, considering the circumstances, Wing Commander Col. Michael Alfaro tells Aviation Week. He says his guidance is to try to meet the mission-hour goal without breaking the wing’s jets or breaking the people. Aviation Week recently visited the 366th.
With older airframes, that can mean pilots expect to fly often but do not. They can repeatedly show up early at the operations desk, only to be told there are not enough working aircraft.
Alfaro says that earlier in his career, it was normal to fly 15-20 times per month, including multiple times per day. Today’s Air Force often must play “shell games,” he notes, prioritizing a group one month to maintain currency, then having them essentially on probation for the next to give others a chance to fly.
“We’re just barely getting the sorties across people,” he says. “The ones that need experience are not getting sorties, so that can be a little bit of a beatdown on morale.”
Meanwhile, the Air Force is starting to chip away at what has become a major limiting factor in pilot production: the health of its Northrop T-38 Talon II trainer. The Talon uses General Electric J85 turbojet engines dating back to the early 1950s, and problems with those engines have decreased its mission-capable rates to the low 50% range, in turn lowering pilot output. Moreover, the powerplant is no longer in production, and StandardAero, the main contractor charged with maintenance, has struggled to source parts.
In response, the newly renamed Airman Development Command (ADC)—previously Air Education and Training Command—teamed with Air Force Materiel Command to develop a new plan to produce and refurbish parts in-house to feed into depot maintenance.
Commander of the ADC, Lt. Gen. Brian S. Robinson, tells Aviation Week that this process has already yielded results in the past couple of months, helping a “better-quality engine to come out of depot maintenance.”
In addition, the Air Force has launched the broader Talon Repair Inspection and Maintenance program to inspect and repair critical structure areas. This is expected to replace nearly 200 primary structure components, including longerons, bulkheads and skins, and to inspect more than 150 other components.
These are all interim steps as the service awaits the delayed Boeing T-7A Red Hawk. The aircraft’s anticipated initial operational capability date has been pushed to 2028. Robinson says concerns over the T-7’s delayed timeline stem from having to put more resources into extending the T-38’s life, as the service prefers the safer, more capable and more advanced Red Hawk.
Per the current T-38 syllabus, much of early training covers simply safe flight of the old aircraft and its unique characteristics, as opposed to military airmanship. The more advanced T-7 will allow the service to provide much improved training, Robinson says.
Before pilots fly the T-38—and eventually the T-7—they begin training in the Beechcraft T-6 Texan II turboprop. As the Talons have declined, the service has made limited changes to the T-6 initial training syllabus—focused on process, sustainment, manpower and airspace access—to raise the output of trained pilots. Robinson says these tweaks have increased production by 25% at Laughlin AFB, Texas, and will be scaled to other locations starting with Vance AFB, Oklahoma.
The U.S. Navy faces a similar pilot shortage, both in production and in keeping enough strike pilots in service. As with the Air Force’s T-38 issue, the Navy continues to grapple with engine troubles from its T-45 Goshawk trainer. As of late 2023, the pipeline had produced 80% of its overall goal, with about 1,000 students at a time waiting to begin pilot training—some waiting as long as 14 months.
The T-45 was grounded for 4.5 months starting in October 2022. That same year, the Navy started the Carrier Qualification Pilot Project. Under this program, pilots would not be required to land on a carrier before going to fleet replacement squadrons. As of August 2023, 32 pilots had completed the program, with positive initial results.
The Navy’s fiscal 2025 request calls for $158 million for the T-45, including a $38.9 million “engine surge” account to deal with powerplant problems, $64 million to address avionics obsolescence and $28 million for a life extension program. Beyond that, the service plans to proceed with a replacement called the Undergraduate Jet Training System, procurement of which is to start in 2026, although funding has yet to be outlined.
Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro says the funding and initial steps to address the T-45 have shown some results, sounding an optimistic note on addressing the overall shortfall. “Our pilot pipeline has come down dramatically,” he says. “I’m pretty excited about that.”
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Saudi Air Defenses Down Six Houthi Ballistic Missiles In 48 Seconds
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne February 05, 2024
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—A Saudi Patriot battery shot down six Houthi ballistic missiles in 48 sec. in a dramatic illustration of the rapid advancements the country's armed forces have made.
The Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces' 290th Patriot unit was protecting the city of Jazan near the Yemeni border on Aug. 26, 2019, when Houthis fired a swarm of ballistic missiles that threatened civilian areas. In an engagement which has now become legendary within the service, according to officials, battery commanders launched an undisclosed number of Patriots to intercept the incoming missiles, with one missile being launched every six seconds.
The engagement is one of several now being formally acknowledged by Air Defense Forces officials here at the World Defense Show in Riyadh.
In another incident, the same unit also engaged a ballistic missile that threatened commercial airline flights at Jazan Airport.
The Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces deployed numerous systems to the Yemeni border during the conflict with the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen to tackle the air defense threats. During the conflict, the Houthis were supplied with numerous ballistic and cruise missile systems as well as uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) that were launched against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Houthi attacks primarily targeted civilian areas and critical infrastructure.
Statements by the Saudi-led coalition at the time, as well as by the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., said that Houthi rebels launched almost 400 ballistic missiles and more than 800 one-way attack UAS into Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2022.
Other incidents now being acknowledged by the service include the first hard-kill engagement of a one-way attack drone by the Chinese-supplied, truck-mounted Silent Hunter system using its onboard laser. The Air Defense Forces also engaged 31 one-way attack drones using the Rheinmetall Skyguard air defense gun system in a single day.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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U.S. Forces Strike Houthi Surface-to-Air Missile Before Launch
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 31, 2024
The U.S. military destroyed a surface-to-air missile being prepared to launch by Houthi forces on Jan. 31, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
“U.S. forces identified the missile in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that it presented an imminent threat to U.S. aircraft,” the U.S. statement said.
It was not clear which U.S. aircraft were vulnerable or being targeted at the time of the afternoon strike.
Houthi forces shot down a General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. (GA-ASI) MQ-9 Reaper drone on Nov. 8 as it flew over the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. Houthis also shot down another MQ-9 and a GA-ASI MQ-1C Gray Eagle over Yemen in 2019.
The Houthis have previously shown off stocks of Qaher family of missiles. In 2020, the Center for Strategic and International Studies linked the Qaher series to reengineered Soviet V-755 surface-to-air missiles. The same report said Houthis may operate the 358 missile, a loitering munition capable of attacking aerial targets.
Further, the U.S. displayed a Houthi Sayyad-2C missile in November 2018 that was reportedly seized by Saudi Arabia. The latter is an Iranian missile derived from the U.S. SM-1 surface-to-air missile.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Mission Is Complete For First Powered Aircraft On Mars
Aviation Week - Irene Klotz February 01, 2024
Mars Perseverance rover scientists had hoped to dispatch NASA’s Ingenuity helicopter early this spring to Bright Angel, an outcrop of rock in the river inlet valley running into Jezero Crater, the site of an ancient lake.
“This could be the first taste of crater rim rocks or sediments deposited within the channel. Either will be interesting to us because . . . these rocks are either the youngest sedimentary rocks we will see on the mission, or they could be the absolutely oldest rocks,”Perseverance Deputy Project Scientist Katie Stack Morgan tells Aviation Week.
• Tech demo planned for 30 days lasted almost three years
• Navigation system foiled by featureless terrain
“I was looking forward to Ingenuity scouting these out in advance for us so that we would have a sense for what are we up against when we get over there, and what kind of approach do we want to take with the rover in terms of how we look at this outcrop?” she adds.
Having an aerial scout was not part of the plan for the ongoing Mars 2020 Perseverance science mission, which set out to search for signs of ancient microbial life on Mars and prepare rock and regolith samples for return to Earth.
Ingenuity flew on Mars for the first time on April 19, 2021. The helicopter climbed to an altitude of 10 ft., hovered and then landed on the planet’s surface. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS
The car-size rover landed via parachutes, retrorockets and a sky crane inside Jezero Crater on Feb. 18, 2021. Attached to its belly was the 4-lb. helicopter, Ingenuity, built by a small team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to demonstrate powered flight on Mars. Their Wright brothers moment occurred on April 19, 2021 (AW&ST April 19-May 2, 2021, p. 20).
“We originally had a single logbook, hoping for one successful flight to be logged in that,” Ingenuity Project Manager Teddy Tzanetos says. “We now have a fully packed logbook—and a second volume. We never planned for such a long mission.”
Ingenuity’s last flight—a 32-sec. pop-up intended to get a fix on its location—occurred on Jan. 18, the third in a series over featureless terrain that challenged the helicopter’s navigation system. The terrain is believed to have been a key factor in the vehicle’s demise.
“We didn’t design the [navigation] system to handle this kind of terrain,” Havard Grip, former Ingenuity chief pilot at JPL, told reporters on Jan. 25. “We now know this kind of terrain can be a trap for a system like this.”
Engineers suspect one or more of Ingenuity’s thin blades struck the ground during descent and broke. Detailed flight data was not transmitted due to a communications cutoff during descent and subsequent power brownout.
The assessment comes from analysis of photographs taken after the helicopter landed and communications were restored the following day. One image shows the shadow of a blade that is missing the outer 25% of its structure.
Ingenuity’s blades spin at 2,537 rpm, so “there’s a good chance, given the rotational rate, that multiple sides of the rotor system impacted the surface,” Tzanetos says.
“Whether the blade strike occurred, which led to the communications loss, or there was a communications loss and power brownout that then led to the rotor strike, we will never know,” he adds. “The team is going to try and piece together more data in the days ahead.”
On its last flight, Ingenuity reached a maximum altitude of 40 ft., hovered for 4.5 sec., then started its descent at a velocity of 3.3 ft./sec. About 3 ft. above the surface, Ingenuity lost contact with the Perseverance rover, which served as its communications relay. The rover is too far away to attempt to image Ingenuity.
Jan. 25 marked Ingenuity’s 1,000th sol (Martian day) since deployment from Perseverance. Its first flight proved that powered, controlled flight on Mars is possible. Following four more test runs, the rotorcraft was repurposed to demonstrate operations for science by serving as an aerial scout for the Perseverance team.
“One of the things that made Ingenuity possible was the use of commercial, off-the-shelf parts,” Tzanetos notes. “We have cell phone chips, cell phone cameras, miniaturized electronics and off-the-shelf lithium ion batteries. The advancements over the last two decades of various industries really worked together to make Ingenuity possible and be an example for all of us of what we can do in the future.”
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Irene Klotz is Senior Space Editor for Aviation Week, based in Cape Canaveral. Before joining Aviation Week in 2017, Irene spent 25 years as a wire service reporter covering human and robotic spaceflight, commercial space, astronomy, science and technology for Reuters and United Press International.
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U.S. Backs Turkish And Greek Fighter Plans
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne February 01, 2024
Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s entry into NATO has granted Ankara the long-awaited approval to acquire new Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 fighters and upgrade packages for its existing fleet.
But the $23 billion price is steep for an economy struggling with sky-high inflation, depleted currency reserves and ongoing efforts to rebuild from devastating earthquakes almost a year ago. The overall cost is arguably bigger than the figure suggests.
• Turkey’s push from F-35 program forced it down the F-16 route
• Greece also to receive U.S. surplus airlifters and possibly tankers
After all, Ankara’s own choices put it on the F-16 procurement route. It had been ejected from the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program for purchasing Russian S-400 ground-based air defense systems, cozying up to Moscow and straining its relations with the U.S. and NATO allies.
Losing the JSF program membership it had held since 1999 not only prevented the purchase of the F-35, which would have been in Turkish service now, but also barred Ankara from the substantial industrial program accompanying it that would have brought valuable revenue and experience to the country’s growing aerospace industry.
Perhaps most galling for Turkish government ministers is that neighbor and regional competitor Greece was approved to acquire the F-35 first. Athens is expecting 40 of the fighters, at a total of cost $8.6 billion. Turkey’s response has so far been muted. In stark contrast, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said the F-35 approvals “highlighted and sealed the strategic depth of Greek-American relations.”
Athens also looks set to benefit from deliveries of surplus U.S. military equipment, including Lockheed C-130 Hercules airlifters and engines for its Lockheed P-3 Orion maritime patrollers. The country has requested surplus Boeing KC-135 tankers that could finally give it an organic tanker capability as well.
If the deal goes ahead, Greece will likely become the 19th customer of the F-35, following the Czech Republic as the 18th after Prague signed for a fleet of 24 F-35As on Jan. 29.
Turkey first requested new-build F-16s from the U.S. in 2021, seeking 40 Block 70s as well as kits to modernize 79 aircraft to the F-16V standard. Ankara has also asked for a large cache of weapons, including air-to-air and anti-radiation missiles and dumb bomb guidance kits.
However, the sale faced opposition from U.S. senators unhappy with Ankara’s S-400 purchases, alleged human rights abuses and overflights of Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. This opposition ended with the departure of U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez following his indictment on bribery charges.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred Finland and Sweden to seek NATO membership, Ankara used the F-16s as a bargaining chip in negotiating the two nations’ accession. Finland formally joined the alliance on April 4, and Turkish lawmakers finally approved Sweden’s entry on Jan. 23.
The Turkish Air Force urgently needs new F-16s. Without the F-35, there is nothing to replace its obsolete McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms and early-model F-16s. Although the Turkish Aerospace Industries-led indigenous Kaan fighter aims to replace the F-16 in the 2030s, its development has been slower than planned; the prototype’s first flight was postponed from its intended date in December.
New F-16s are a critical stopgap, but opposition from Washington pushed Ankara to find a backup, prompting an interest in the UK-supplied Eurofighter Typhoon as an alternative.
U.S. approval by no means guarantees Turkey will sign on the dotted line, notes Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “These approvals signal how these two NATO countries are viewed by the U.S.,” he says.
Barrie suggests that the financial cost of the F-16s could limit the scale of the acquisition, although he points out that Turkey has a stronger “appetite” for large defense acquisitions than many of its NATO partners.
The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency states that neither deal will “alter the basic military balance in the region.” For Greece, the F-35 delivery will allow it to finally replace its own F-4 fleet. However, Prague does not expect to receive its first F-35 until 2031; Athens will face similar timelines. Turkey might have a shorter wait for its new-build F-16s, and the modernization program could begin as early as February, U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland told Turkish media, hinting that Turkey could rejoin the F-35 program if the S-400 situation resolves itself.
Sweden, meanwhile, remains in limbo as it waits for Hungarian lawmakers to ratify its NATO accession. This could happen as soon as Feb. 5.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/us-backs-turkish-greek-fighter-plans
Wreckage of Japan Coast Guard Dash 8 at Tokyo Haneda Airport, Jan. 3, 2024
Aviation Week - Sean Broderick Chen Chuanren January 03, 2024
WASHINGTON and SINGAPORE—The Japan Coast Guard De Havilland Canada Dash 8 struck by an arriving Japan Airlines (JAL) Airbus A350 at Tokyo International Airport Jan. 3 was on the runway despite air traffic control (ATC) instructions to hold short on an intersecting taxiway—directions that one of the Dash 8 pilots read back correctly, a transcript released by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) shows.
“Tower, JA722A C,” someone from the Japan Coast Guard (JCG) Dash 8-300 radioed to Tokyo Haneda (HND) tower ATC, indicating the aircraft is checking in from Taxiway C with its tail number as a call sign, according to the transcript.
“JA722A, Tokyo tower good evening,” a controller responded. “Number one, taxi to holding point C5.”
The “number one” suggests the aircraft is next in line to depart. The rest is clear: Move to the marked stopping point on taxiway C5, which connects to HND’s Runway 34 Right (34R).
“Taxi to holding point C5 JA722A, number one, thank you,” someone on the JCG Dash 8 said.
But instead of stopping at the hold-short line on C5, the Dash 8 taxied onto the runway.
Ten seconds before the exchange began, ATC cleared JAL Flight 516 (JAL516), the inbound A350-900, to land on 34R.
Surveillance video shows the Dash 8 moved onto 34R and stopped—something a pilot would do if executing a “line up and wait” ATC command that gives an aircraft permission to enter the runway but not depart.
Nearly 50 sec. after the Dash 8 stopped, the A350, which touched down seconds before closer to the runway end, struck the national guard aircraft. Five of the six Dash 8 occupants died, while all 379 onboard JAL516 evacuated safely once the widebody came to rest.
According to a transcript excerpt released by MLIT, JAL516 contacted Tokyo Tower at 5:43:02 p.m. local time, and was instructed by tower controller to continue its approach to runway 34R. JAL516, first in line to land, read back ATC’s instructions.
JAL516 was then cleared to land at 5:44:56 p.m. and a pilot read back the instructions.
At 5:45:11 p.m., JA722A called into tower frequency notifying of its position on taxiway C. ATC gave the instructions to proceed to the C5 hold line, which JA722A confirmed eight seconds later.
Communications from several other aircraft are detailed in the transcript excerpt, including departing Delta Air Lines and JAL flights told to hold short at C1 as well as another arriving JAL flight.
The transcript ends before the collision. A JAL statement puts JAL516’s arrival time at 5:47 p.m.
The exchange suggests how ATC instructions were given and followed will be one of the key focus areas for investigators as they work to piece together the accident’s chain of events.
Also of interest will be the status and condition of airfield lighting and safety aids. A Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) issued Dec. 27, 2023, and effective through late February lists several airfield aids at HND as out of service. Among them: lights that illuminate stop bars along the connections between Taxiway C to the accident runway, including C5. Runway 34L centerline lights were also listed as inoperative. It is not clear if the C5 stop bar lights or centerline lights were working at the time of the accident.
Investigators will also look closely at how an aircraft could be on an active HND runway for nearly 1 min. without being detected, even in the dark. An ICAO document shows HND is one of many airports that uses surface movement radar—a long-used method of supplementing the visual view of the airfield controllers have. The system’s performance and controllers’ familiarity with it are other likely topics investigators will probe.
The Japan Safety Transport Board (JTSB) is leading the accident investigation with assistance from several organizations, including Airbus and investigators from France’s Bureau of Enquiry and Analysis for Civil Aviation Safety (BEA). JTSB has recovered the Dash 8 cockpit voice recorder.
The accident caused the cancellation of 137 domestic and four international flights from HND on Jan. 3, MLIT said.
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Sean Broderick
Senior Air Transport & Safety Editor Sean Broderick covers aviation safety, MRO, and the airline business from Aviation Week Network's Washington, D.C. office.
Chen Chuanren
Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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All V-22s Grounded, Probe Finds Materiel Failure Possible In USAF Crash
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine December 06, 2023
The entire Bell Boeing V-22 fleet has been grounded after a preliminary U.S. Air Force investigation into the Nov. 29 crash near Japan found that a “potential materiel failure” could have caused the mishap.
Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) boss Lt. Gen. Tony Bauernfeind ordered the operational stand down of the command’s fleet on Dec. 6, shortly after Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) instituted a grounding bulletin for all its V-22 variants. It is the second time this year that V-22s from all U.S. military services have been grounded. The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force had also grounded its V-22s following the Nov. 29 crash.
The Air Force CV-22 crashed into waters near Yakushima, Japan, during a training mission, killing all eight on board. Eyewitnesses reported seeing an engine on fire before the aircraft crashed into the sea. The remains of all eight have been recovered, the Air Force said Dec. 6.
AFSOC did not expand on the potential materiel failure that could have caused the crash, saying that causal factors will be determined as part of the accident investigation.
“The stand down will provide time and space for a thorough investigation to determine causal factors and recommendations to ensure the Air Force CV-22 fleet to return to flight operations,” the command says.
In a statement, NAVAIR added that “the mishap remains under investigation, we are implementing additional risk mitigation controls to ensure the safety of our service members.”
The Nov. 29 crash was the fourth V-22 hull loss within the past two years, and the first involving a U.S. Air Force CV-22. An MV-22 crash in Australia killed three people in August 2023. An MV-22 crash in California killed five in June 2022, and an MV-22 crash in Norway killed four in March 2022.
An investigation found the June 2022 crash was caused by a long-known problem with the Osprey’s gearbox, a hard-clutch engagement. The root cause of the issue has not yet been determined. In February 2023, the Joint Program Office announced an effort to attempt to mitigate the issue by replacing the gearbox’s input quill assembly (IQA) every 800 flight hours.
Bauernfeind told Aerospace DAILY in September that the replacements will be indefinite until the issue is further understood, with each replacement taking at first about six days. AFSOC said in a statement it does not yet know the status of the IQA replacement on the V-22 that crashed.
The order is the second V-22 grounding within the past three months after a Marine Corps-wide aviation stand down following the Australia crash. The Air Force first grounded its fleet in August 2022 after an Osprey experienced a hard landing, though the Marine Corps and Navy did not follow suit. The entire fleet was grounded as IQA replacements started beginning in February and aircraft returned to flight as replacements were completed.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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New Soim Jet Trainer Ready For Flight Testing In Romania
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne January 02, 2024
Romanian airframer Avioane Craiova SA is getting ready to begin flight testing of an upgraded version of the IAR-99 Soim jet trainer.
The IAR-99SM (Standard Modernizat) has been developed with a modernized avionics suite to help train pilots to fly Romania’s new fleet of secondhand Lockheed Martin F-16s, as well as perform low-speed air interception missions for national air policing.
Details of a rollout ceremony for the new aircraft held Dec. 22 were revealed by Romanian Minister of Economy, Entrepreneurship and Tourism Stefan Radu Oprea, who said Romanian industry was “demonstrating in a real way the ability to respond to the supply needs of the Romanian army.”
Ten of the Romanian Air Force’s fleet of IAR-99s will be upgraded to the IAR-99SM standard, according to a contract signed in May 2020. But the program is significantly behind schedule. Oprea notes that the upgrade project “has been stalled for almost three years.”
Romania’s Ministry of Economy is the main shareholder in Avioane Craiova SA.
The Rolls-Royce Viper-powered jet trainer was developed by Romanian industry in the 1980s to replace the Aero Vodochody L-29 Delfins and L-39 Albatros aircraft then being used for jet training.
The type entered service in 1987. But unlike the Czech-built platform, the IAR-99 failed to achieve any export success, and only 20 entered Romanian Air Force service.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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First Airbus A350 Hull-Loss After Haneda Runway Incursion
Aviation Week - Jens Flottau January 02, 2024
A Japan Airlines (JAL) Airbus A350-900 and a Japanese Coast Guard De Havilland Canada Dash 8 have been completely destroyed in a ground collision at Tokyo’s Haneda airport shortly after the JAL aircraft’s touch-down.
All 367 passengers and 12 crew members on board the A350 managed to escape the burning aircraft, but five of the six on board the Coast Guard aircraft have died. JAL said 13 passengers required medical attention. The airline also said the total passenger count included eight infants.
The accident is the first ever A350 hull-loss and Japan Airlines’ first accident since 1985.
JAL stated “[Flight] JL516 was involved in a collision with a Japan Coast Guard aircraft during its landing at Haneda Airport, resulting in a fire on the runway,” adding, “our thoughts and prayers are with the deceased members of the Japan Coast Guard. We want to assure you that all passengers and crew on our flight were safely evacuated.”
The carrier said it will “provide our full cooperation in the investigation of this unfortunate event.”
Airbus said, “In line with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 13 recommendations, Airbus will provide technical assistance to the Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses (BEA) of France and to the Japan Transport Safety Board (JTSB) in charge of the investigation. For this purpose, Airbus is presently dispatching a team of specialists to assist the authorities.”
The aircraft manufacturer stated that “the exact circumstances of the event are still unknown.”
The A350 was operating flight JL516 from Sapporo with 367 passengers and 12 crew members and was landing at Haneda’s runway 34R at 5:47 p.m. local time, about 12 min. later than scheduled.
“The aircraft did not experience any issues or irregularities during its departure from New Chitose Airport or throughout the flight,” JAL said in a second statement. The A350’s pilots “acknowledged and repeated the landing permission from air traffic control, and then proceeded with the approach and landing procedures,” the airline added.
According to Flightradar24 data, the aircraft was crossing the runway threshold at a normal approach speed of 122 kt. and touched the ground shortly thereafter. Airport video footage shows how the aircraft was travelling down the initial part of the runway, when suddenly it appeared to hit an obstacle with large flames erupting. With its nose gear collapsed, the aircraft continued sliding down the runway and came to rest close to the end and to the right of it, not far from the airport perimeter fence on the edge of Tokyo Bay. A picture taken by one passenger shortly after having evacuated the aircraft, shows substantial impact damage to the nose of the aircraft and the nose gear missing.
The Coast Guard aircraft had reportedly loaded aid for support victims of Monday’s earthquake on the Noto Peninsula and was understood to be preparing to take off for a flight to Niigata Air Base.
Pictures of the A350 also show that escape slides had been deployed at the two front doors and the left rear door. Passengers appeared to not use the right rear door. While emergency services attempted to extinguish the fire, the aircraft ultimately burnt down completely.
“The aircraft’s announcement system malfunctioned during the evacuation, so cabin crew members conducted instructions using a megaphone and their voices,” JAL said. “Cabin crew members determined safe exits for evacuation, and all passengers and crew members evacuated through three emergency exits.”
According to the Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database, the aircraft registered JA13XJ (MSN 538) was delivered to JAL on Nov. 10, 2021. It had since accumulated 4,421 flight hrs. in 3,220 cycles. The aircraft was equipped in the high-density 367-seat configuration JAL has installed for domestic and short-haul flights. These include 12 seats in first, 94 in business and 263 in economy. The Coast Guard aircraft was a Dash 8-315Q registered JA722A. It has been delivered on Feb. 26, 2008. The aircraft had 7,573 hrs. and 2,700 cycles.
Haneda, one of Tokyo’s two international airports, stopped all take-offs or landings temporarily. According to Flightradar24, 110 flights scheduled to land at Haneda on the evening of Jan. 2 were either canceled or diverted to other airports including Tokyo-Narita.
Composite Structure Flammability
JL516 is the first A350 completely destroyed in an accident. The investigation could provide valuable insight into the flammability of large composite aircraft structures based on in-service experience that have so far been unavailable. In July 2013, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 787 suffered substantial, but much smaller, fire damage caused by a thermal runaway of the emergency locator transmitter (ELT) battery when on the ground at London Heathrow.
Flammability experts know composite-skinned airframes burn “inherently differently” than their aluminum counterparts, a 2012 U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory study on the subject noted. Aircraft composite material is a beneficial insulator that can help resist heat from nearby sources, such as an external fire, the study said. But those same properties make it difficult to cool down once it has heated up and present challenges for extinguishing parts of a fire that are hidden from firefighters.
Informal Boeing guidance on fighting composite aircraft fires issued after the 787 was introduced does not recommend “any major changes” from standard protocol.
“Extensive testing has been conducted in regards to combustibility and toxicity related to the composite structure,” the document, last updated in 2022, said. “This design not only adds to the strength of the product, but also makes it a good barrier to fire and heat. The structure does not aid in the spread of fire and acts as a barrier creating greater difficulty for an exterior fire to penetrate an intact fuselage. From a toxicity perspective, the composite structure during fire testing poses no greater hazard than an aluminum fuselage aircraft. Also, note that the burn through time on the composite structure is significantly longer than with the aluminum fuselage which may inherently provide greater safety to both the rescue fire responders and passengers in some scenarios.”
The accident will add to learnings from recent passenger evacuation and broader cabin safety improvement efforts. While the exact sequence of the evacuation will form part of the accident investigation, it is clear that all 389 people on board a densely configured widebody managed to escape the aircraft with only three of the four main slides being used.
JAL’s last hull-loss occurred on Aug 12, 1985, when a Boeing 747SR crashed into a mountain en route from Haneda to Osaka. The aircraft’s hydraulic systems ruptured after a violent failure of the rear pressure bulkhead. In one of the worst accidents in commercial aviation history, all 520 people on board died.
With Dan Williams in London, Chen Chuanren in Singapore and Sean Broderick in Washington.
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Jens Flottau
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens is executive editor and leads Aviation Week Network’s global team of journalists covering commercial aviation.
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USAF Considering Overhaul, Doing Away With Major Commands
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine December 13, 2023
ORLANDO, Florida—The U.S. Air Force is considering a major overhaul to its structure and doing away with its major command model as part of a review led by service Secretary Frank Kendall focusing on the service’s ability to fight a major conflict after decades of lower-intensity fights.
Lt. Gen. Michael Guetlein, commander of Space Systems Command, said during a Dec. 13 speech at the Space Force Association conference here that Kendall will make the change as part of the effort, which began this fall.
“The Air Force is going to get rid of the major commands structure,” Guetlein said. “Think about how fundamental that is to the way we fight today and the way we’ve always thought about the Air Force. And we’re going to step away from what we know as the majcom structure. That’s going to be a huge change.”
Following the speech, the Air Force clarified that the major command change is predecisional and only a potential option as part of Kendall’s overall review. In a follow-up briefing, Guetlein clarified his remarks and added that the plan is not “concrete.”
“Right now, nothing is sacred,” he told reporters. “We’re looking at everything. But, I made it sound like decisions have been made. There have been no decisions made.”
Kendall, in a September speech at the Air Force Association conference, said the Air and Space Forces need to change or “we’ll fail to prevent, or lose, a war.”
The Air Staff, Space Force leadership and the secretary’s office are looking at five specific areas for the review: how the Air Force is organized, how equipment is provided to the overall force, how it recruits and retains personnel, how it can create and sustain readiness, and how support organizations function.
“The Air Force and Space Force are incredibly capable, but we need to reoptimize the department for greater power projection and for great power competition,” Kendall says. “The war we need to be most ready for, if we want to optimize our readiness to deter or respond to the pacing challenge, is not the type of conflict we have been focused on for many years.”
In a Dec. 2 interview with Aerospace DAILY, Kendall said he has set up a four-month “sprint” for this effort to identify major changes to be made. This will include about 10-20 significant changes, which will be rolled out in February and put in place over the next two years, in alignment with service chiefs.
“I, for one reason or another, may not be in this job in another year-plus, but the chiefs are going to be here for quite a while,” Kendall says. “So this is going to be something that they’re 1,000% behind and we’ve talked about it every day basically.”
The Air Force has nine major commands, though a total of 27 have been designated over the history of the service.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Checklist: Avoid Mishaps From Unsecured Items In Flight
Aviation Week - Jeremy Kariuki August 07, 2023
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has investigated a multitude mishaps stemming from one common error — unsecured or forgotten items in the aircraft.
When preparing for a flight, a seasoned pilot ensures the airworthiness of their aircraft through numerous tasks. Whether that includes checking fuel levels, testing equipment or visual inspections, small details can sometimes go unnoticed — leaving room for potential harm.
During each stage of flight, unsecured items can become dangerous hazards inside the cockpit. When maneuvering or encountering turbulence, small items, such as wrenches or cell phones, can cause damage to equipment and even block control surfaces.
In order to ensure a safe flight, pilots must include this factor in their preflight inspections, the NTSB urges.
What Can Pilots Do?
1. Inspect the aircraft for forgotten or misplaced items before takeoff. When maintenance is performed, make sure to account for all tools used. Both pilots and technicians can make mistakes.
2. Conduct an inventory of all equipment installed on the aircraft. Visually and physically confirm the structural integrity of antennas, GPS units and other avionic devices. Doing so ensures their availability during flight.
3. Account for all personal items. Clothing, cell phones and bags should be properly stored in a compartment or on your person. After a flight, make sure any personal electronic devices (PEDs) are appropriately stored or removed from the aircraft.
4. Prior to takeoff, remind all passengers to secure their PEDs and other personal items. Everything must be accounted for before and after the flight.
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Jeremy Kariuki is Associate Editor for Business Aviation, based in Atlanta. Before joining Aviation Week in April 2023, Jeremy served as a writer for FLYING Magazine, FreightWaves and the Center for Sustainable Journalisme
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F-35 Engine Upgrade Set To Enter Next Development Phase
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble November 28, 2023
An engine upgrade for the Lockheed Martin F-35 is set to advance beyond the preliminary design stage by the end of March, even as General Electric continues to campaign for a competition to replace the fighter’s Pratt & Whitney F135.
Pratt plans to complete preliminary design work on the Engine Core Upgrade (ECU) for the F135 by the end of December and the preliminary design review before February, a company spokesman said on Nov. 28.
Meanwhile, new acquisitions documents released by the Joint Program Office show the next phase of development will be awarded by the end of March. The contract for technology maturation and risk reduction for critical ECU components should be signed by the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2024, which ends in March. Full engineering and manufacturing development will follow, with the program expected to be complete by the end of December 2031, according to the documents.
Pratt will receive a series of sole-source contracts to continue ECU development over the next eight years, the documents show. Meanwhile, the first ECU version of the F135 should become operational in 2029.
“Pratt & Whitney has 600 employees fully dedicated to this effort, and we’re on track to deliver F-35 operators the power needed to enable Block 4 capabilities and beyond starting in 2029,” a company spokesman said.
The ECU program is moving forward despite objections by GE and some lawmakers who favor replacing the F135 rather than upgrading it. The re-engining proposal would lead to a competition between GE and Pratt, with each offering production versions of the A100 and A101 turbofans, respectively. Both engines feature adaptive systems, such as a variable bypass system enabled by opening or closing a third stream of airflow within the engine case.
U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall championed the engine replacement option for the F-35A after he was confirmed in August 2021. But the Defense Department decided instead last year to upgrade the existing engine for the F-35, arguing that the lower costs outweighed the increased performance offered by the A100 and A101.
Both adaptive turbofan options promised to improve thrust, fuel efficiency and power and thermal management capacity compared to the ECU version of the F135. The new acquisition documents omit horizontal thrust and fuel efficiency improvements as goals for the ECU program.
Instead, the goal of the ECU program is to maintain commonality between engines that power F-35s sold to U.S. and foreign operators of all three variants. The ECU should also increase the longevity of the F135, reduce maintenance costs, double power and thermal management capacity and increase horsepower extraction from the engine to power the F-35’s Block 4 electronics, according to the new acquisition document.
Finally, the ECU program is expected to improve the vertical lift capabilities of the F-35B, the documents say. Such an upgrade would deliver more thrust to the lift fan and roll posts of the short takeoff and vertical landing version of the F-35.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Norway Begins F-16 Deliveries To Romania
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne November 28, 2023
Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters have taken off from Norway for delivery to Romania, helping to enable a rapid expansion of the Eastern European country’s frontline fleet.
Three F-16s of the 32 purchased by Romania left the Rygge airbase near Oslo on Nov. 28 following upgrade and maintenance by Kongsberg Aviation Maintenance Services to prepare them for Romanian service.
The first deliveries come almost two years since Bucharest made a request to purchase the F-16s, which were withdrawn from Royal Norwegian Air Force service in December 2021 with the introduction of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
Bucharest had sent out requests for information to several European allies on the availability of secondhand F-16s in 2019, with the Norwegian proposal being deemed the best solution. Arrangements for the transfer included obtaining approval from Washington, which was finally secured in June.
“The sale of the F-16 will strengthen and modernize the defense of Romania, an allied nation along NATO's eastern flank, which is also a neighboring country to Ukraine,” said Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.
The deal—Norway’s largest disposal agreement for military hardware—also includes spares, support equipment and technician training.
Norway was one of the four European Participating Air Forces that purchased the F-16 during the 1980s—along with Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands—and was one of five nations to put their aircraft through a mid-life update program, bringing the Block 15-model F-16s up to a similar capability as the later Block 50/52 model.
Delivery of the fighters to Romania will continue through to 2025, giving the country time to build pilot and technician competence, Norwegian officials said.
The newly established European F-16 Training Center at Romania's Fetesti airbase, which is designed to instruct Ukrainian pilots on the type, will also serve as the training ground for Romanian fliers. Instructors at the center are provided by OEM Lockheed Martin.
The Romanian Air Force already operates 17 F-16A/B models acquired from Portugal. The additional 32 fighters—equivalent to two squadrons' worth—are set to replace the Mikoyan MiG-21 Lancer fleet, which was withdrawn from use in May.
Romania sees the F-16s as an interim platform and is already eyeing an acquisition of F-35s during the 2030s.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/norway-begins-f-16-deliveries-romania
U.S. Continues V-22 Flights After Fatal Crash
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble November 30, 2023
The Pentagon will not ground Bell Boeing V-22 Ospreys in response to a call by Japan’s top defense official to halt flights after the latest fatal tiltrotor crash on Nov. 28, a spokeswoman said.
Search and rescue efforts are still underway for seven of the eight service members who were aboard the CV-22 when it crashed off the coast of Yakashima Island, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Nov. 30.
But U.S.-owned Ospreys, including CV-22s based at Yokota and MV-22s based in Okinawa, are continuing to fly as crash investigators probe the third fatal mishap involving the tiltrotor in 13 months.
“If the investigation concludes that there needs to be additional steps taken, we’ll certainly do that,” Singh said.
Japan has grounded its fleet of six MV-22s in response to the crash. In remarks to the Japanese parliament, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said on Nov. 30 that the U.S. military should take the same action.
The body of one of the eight crewmembers aboard the CV-22 that crashed has been recovered, but the other seven are missing.
The CV-22 belonged to the 353rd Special Operations Wing.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Canada’s Porter Airlines Grows Embraer E2 Orderbook, With 75 Firm
Aviation Week - Christine Boynton November 30, 2023
Porter Airlines has exercised half its remaining options for Embraer E195-E2s, increasing its firm orders for the E-Jet variant from 50 to 75.
The Toronto-based carrier has already taken delivery of 24 E2s and has 25 purchase rights remaining. Porter previously operated a single fleet type of De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400s, and the longer-range jet has enabled the airline to expand across the North
American continent, including to Western Canada and into the U.S.
“At Porter, we entered a new era when we began operating the E195-E2 earlier this year,” Porter President and CEO Michael Deluce said. “These additional 25 orders enable us to continue extending our reach throughout North America, with more new destinations.”
The exercised purchase rights are valued at $2.1 billion and will be added to Embraer’s fourth quarter backlog, with deliveries of the additional 25 jets set to begin in 2025.
Porter’s move propels the Canadian airline further up Embraer’s E195-E2 top customer list. According to Embraer’s orderbook, last updated in August, the other customers in the top five for E195-E2 firm order commitments are Brazilian carrier Azul, with 51, and lessors AerCap (45), Aircastle (23), and Azorra (22). Azul already counts 16 of the variant among its in-service fleet, according to the Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database, and has previously announced an intent to operate 75 of the type by 2024.
As Porter expands its fleet it will continue strengthening its network under a recently announced joint venture with Canadian leisure carrier Air Transat, an existing codeshare partner. “This is an incredible opportunity that has the potential to transform the competitive landscape in Canada,” Deluce said of the JV in a LinkedIn post. “There will now be a stronger third option for consumers in the Canadian market by better integrating much of Air Transat’s international and sun destinations with Porter’s quickly expanding North American network.”
Porter flies to over 30 destinations in Canada and the U.S. The carrier’s in-service fleet of 46 aircraft includes 22 E2s, according to Fleet Discovery.
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Christine Boynton covers air transport in the Americas for Aviation Week Network.
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Geopolitics, Supply Chain Delays Slow Gulf State Fighter Modernization
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne October 23, 2023
Some countries in the Middle East may have largely settled their combat aircraft plans, but regional turmoil, geopolitics and the supply chain appear to be challenging deliveries and holding up modernization programs.
Across the region, air forces are growing fleets and boosting capabilities—exponentially, in the case of Qatar—in recognition of the threat posed by Iran and its proxies. The moves are perhaps also an acknowledgment that the U.S.—despite ongoing events in Israel and Gaza—is pivoting away from the region to focus on the Pacific and Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• The region’s air forces take an expeditionary approach to fighter operations
• Embargoes and relations with Washington affect Saudi combat aircraft plans
• Political instability delays Kuwaiti Super Hornet deliveries
Today, Gulf state air forces are no longer simply a tool for national defense or a means of displaying muscle to neighbors. Increasingly, they are being used for expeditionary operations as well.
In October, Saudi Boeing F-15SA Eagles operated alongside Turkish Lockheed Martin F-16s and Pakistani Chengdu J-10s and JF-17s for the Pakistani Indus Shield Exercise, and Qatar deployed several of its Eurofighter Typhoons in May to Turkey’s Anatolian Eagle drills, where they operated alongside F-16E/Fs from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has deployed its Mirages to Egypt for operations in Libya, too, and a Saudi-led coalition brought together aircraft from across the Gulf Cooperation Council for operations in Yemen, a conflict Riyadh is now eager to end.
“Middle Eastern countries continue to seek high-end, high-technology capabilities,” Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, tells Aviation Week.
The most advanced fighters, such as the Lockheed Martin F-35, are still closed off to many regional players, so a number of them are turning to the next-best thing: more advanced variants of fourth-generation platforms. European combat aircraft often enjoy significant sales in the region because they come with weapon packages that include standoff cruise missiles the U.S. is reluctant to provide.
Barrie notes there are questions about how easily these nations can grow their air forces, as some in the region—for example, Saudi Arabia—remain heavily dependent on support from contractors such as BAE Systems.
• See also: OEMs Eye Gulf States’ Airlift Capacity Modernization
With the largest air force in the region, Saudi Arabia is continuing its fighter modernization, moving toward what appears to be a two-type fleet made up of Boeing’s F-15 in various versions and the Eurofighter Typhoon. The Panavia Tornado is likely to leave the fleet by the end of the decade in line with the remaining European operators, Germany, and Italy.
Boeing has delivered all of Riyadh’s F-15SAs, the modernized fly-by-wire version of the aircraft that has helped to renew the Eagle’s export opportunities and led to the development of the F-15EX being purchased by the U.S.
But uncertainty surrounds the conversion process of the Royal Saudi Air Force’s F-15S fleet—a downgraded F-15E Strike Eagle variant purchased in the early 1990s—and its conversion to the F-15SR standard, due to several apparent upheavals associated with Alsalam Aerospace Industries, which is performing the work. Among these challenges is that Alsalam is transitioning to new management as it moves under the umbrella of Saudi Arabian Military Industries, the conglomerate that will run much of Saudi Arabia’s defense industry and joint ventures.
Another disruption may follow, as the site at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport where Alsalam performs the conversion work now sits inside the planned site of the new giant King Salman International Airport, announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last November. This development is expected to force Alsalam to relocate before the work on F-15SRs is complete. Aviation Week analysts conservatively estimate that about 30 of the 68 F-15Ss believed to be still operational have been converted to the F-15SR standard, and others are in the conversion process.
Meanwhile, the Royal Saudi Air Force continues to operate nearly 80 F-15C/D Eagles on air defense tasks. Riyadh appears to be seeking a replacement for them, possibly with the F-15EX, Eurofighter or Dassault Rafale. French media reports suggest France is trying to market the Rafale to the kingdom, even though Saudi Arabia has no experience operating French combat aircraft.
Paris may have spotted an opportunity, however—purchases of the F-15EX appear unlikely, given the current tense relations between Riyadh and Washington. Just two Foreign Military Sales requests from Saudi Arabia have been approved over the last two years, primarily for defensive equipment including missiles for the country’s Patriot batteries.
UK efforts to sell an additional batch of 48 Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia are being challenged by partner nation Germany, whose unilateral arms embargo on new defense sales continues (see page 42).
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has stepped in to try to resolve the issue by directly lobbying German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but so far that has not been successful due to disagreements in Scholz’s coalition. The UK side argues that the sale is essential to securing investment and retaining key skills and capabilities to support development of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) with Italy and Japan.
The UK and Saudi Arabia are partnering on a feasibility study, due for completion in March, into how the two countries will position what officials describe as their “decadeslong combat air relationship for the future.” Saudi Arabia would like to become a partner on GCAP, an effort that would help fulfill its Vision 2030 ambitions. Saudi officials have lobbied the other partner nations, but Riyadh’s still fledging aerospace and defense industry is unlikely to be able to contribute much to the program at this stage, apart from its deep pockets.
In the UAE, plans for procurement of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter remain on ice because of disagreements with Washington over China-UAE relations—officials in Abu Dhabi appearing not to want their trade relations dictated by the U.S. In response, the Emiratis elected to purchase Hongdu L-15 jet trainers, sealing the deal at the International Defence Exhibition & Conference in Abu Dhabi in February.
The first Emirati L-15s are destined for use by the UAE’s Al Fursan display team, industry sources say, to replace their Aermacchi MB-339s. It is not clear whether Abu Dhabi has decided to take up options for 36 additional L-15s.
All eyes at the Dubai Airshow will be on the progression of the UAE’s order for 80 Dassault Rafales, the largest contract yet for the French fighter. The Emiratis placed the first payments for the Rafales in April 2022. The type will likely replace the country’s well-used Mirage 2000-9s and supplement a similarly sized fleet of Block 60 F-16E/Fs. The UAE also has shown interest in Korea Aerospace Industries’ new indigenous KF-21 Boramae.
Neighboring Qatar now has received most of the three types of fighter aircraft it has ordered from France, the UK and the U.S. Deliveries of 36 Dassault Rafales and 36 Boeing F-15QA Qatari Advanced “Ababil” Eagles have been completed, while deliveries of the Eurofighter Typhoons are continuing.
Defense OEMs hope Qatari’s fighter requirements will rise further. Boeing is contracted to deliver 12 more F-15QAs, officials said at the U.S. Air Force Association Air, Space and Cyber convention in September, bringing Qatar’s F-15 fleet to 48. That number aligns with statements previously made by the U.S. Air Force Security Assistance and Cooperation Directorate, which contracted to build the infrastructure to house the F-15QAs at Al-Udeid AB.
In Kuwait, political instability has been holding up the introduction of new fighters to replace its McDonnell Douglas F/A-18C/D Hornets. Deliveries of the country’s 28 new Block 3 Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, originally due in the first half of this year, are now expected in the first half of 2024. The aircraft are complete and have been delivered to the U.S. Navy by Boeing; they are in storage in hangars at the Stennis International Airport in Mississippi.
Deliveries of Kuwait’s new Eurofighters are also moving slowly. Nine of the 28 aircraft have been delivered by Italy’s Leonardo, with another four to come shortly. However, Leonardo officials told Aviation Week in a statement that Kuwait’s Typhoon training unit is fully operational, as is the new infrastructure at Ali Al Salem AB.
For Bahrain and Jordan, new fighter capability will come in the form of Block 70 F-16s, albeit later than planned after Lockheed Martin struggled to reestablish F-16 production in North Carolina. The OEM has rolled out at least two of the 16 Vipers for Bahrain, and first deliveries are planned for 2024. Jordan, meanwhile, has placed formal orders for 12 Block 70 F-16s to join the Block 20 fleet it acquired second-hand.
Across the Gulf, Iran appears to be preparing for new fighters, possibly the result of its newly strengthened relations with Russia following deliveries of Iranian one-way attack drones for use in Ukraine. In September Iranian media published images of two Yakovlev Yak-130 advanced jet trainers supplied by Russia, and defense observers have suggested delivery of the trainers could be a precursor of Iran receiving new advanced fighters, possibly Sukhoi Su-35s. The Yak-130s are the first imported combat-capable aircraft delivered into the country since the imposition of the 2006-20 United Nations arms embargo.
Iran’s neighbors will no doubt be following the next steps with interest.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Israel-Hamas War Widens Munitions Strain
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble October 13, 2023
A Belgian-flagged Boeing 747 commercial freighter landed at Nevatim air base, Israel, on Oct. 11 carrying one of the first shipments of U.S.-built munitions rushed to the world’s newest war zone.
Additional shipments from the U.S. are likely to continue arriving in Israel for weeks or months to come, adding further pressure on a munitions industrial base straining to meet the demands of U.S. aid to the Ukrainian military and the Defense Department’s dwindling stockpile of munition reserves.
Tens of thousands of Israeli troops were massed along the border of Gaza as this article went to press, readying for a land invasion of the densely populated Palestinian territory. Meanwhile, Israeli fighter jets and artillery pounded hundreds of targets inside Gaza and as far away as the airports of Aleppo and Damascus in Syria. Hamas-controlled forces had shocked the Israeli military on Oct. 7 by launching a multidomain, cross-border assault on dozens of remote settlements and military bases. The terrorizing surprise attack killed more than 1,000 civilians and 200 Israeli troops, triggering several days of Israeli airstrikes that have killed hundreds more in Gaza.
• U.S. shipments started arriving in Israel Oct. 11
• Israeli exports could be pressured by prolonged conflict
In response, U.S. officials surged naval and air forces to the region and pledged to supply Israel with whatever it needs to execute a war that threatens to spread beyond Gaza, as reports grew of sporadic violence in the West Bank and Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon.
“We’ll continue to ensure that Israel has what it needs to keep itself and its citizens safe,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Oct. 11.
Austin spoke to reporters about efforts to support Israel at the latest Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, which gathered in Brussels Oct. 11 to be briefed on Kyiv’s specific needs for weapons by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The U.S. has shipped $43.9 billion worth of military equipment to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, including more than 2 million artillery rounds alone. Sending more aid to Ukraine, however, may depend on breaking an impasse over who will be the next Republican speaker of the House of Representatives.
Enough residual funding remains to keep U.S. equipment flowing to Kyiv through the end of December, Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters in Brussels. The White House approved an additional $200 million in military aid for Ukraine on Oct. 10.
With congressional appropriations for fiscal 2024 logjammed by the House Republican leadership impasse, U.S. Army officials pleaded for lawmakers to approve legislative proposals to surge munitions spending.
“We need the support of Congress to replenish critical stockpiles of munitions and equipment,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said in an Oct. 9 speech that opened the Association of the U.S. Army’s (AUSA) Annual Meeting. Wormuth, however, noted that the drain on the American stockpile to support Ukraine is worth it because it weakens Russia’s military.
Although some munitions suppliers are struggling to keep up with existing demand from Ukraine and the U.S., there are signs that supporting Israel in the Gaza conflict will not add significantly to the industrial burden.
So far, the U.S. has simply fast-tracked deliveries of certain munitions from previous orders placed by Israel, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters at the Pentagon Oct. 9. “What we’re looking at is what was already on the books,” the official said. “And we’re working to accelerate that.”
The nature of Israel’s needs for munitions may also be fundamentally different than Ukraine’s. The first shipments to Israel contained munitions that included Tamir missiles, coproduced in the U.S. by RTX for Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system, which has not been supplied to Ukraine. Israel also relies more on airpower to deliver precision-guided munitions than artillery. Finally, Israel has a robust defense industry capable of surging capacity from domestic and international facilities.
“The Israelis do have significant indigenous capacity, so it is a different situation than Ukraine,” Tim Cahill, executive vice president for Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control unit, told reporters at AUSA Oct. 9.
If the conflict between Israel, Hamas and perhaps other groups in the region is prolonged, concerns may grow about Israel’s capacity to meet export commitments. Israeli defense industry officials had touted their ability to deliver munitions to foreign customers markedly faster than backlogged alternatives from U.S. and European companies. Those material and human resources may eventually be diverted to backfill Israel’s own stockpiles.
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Steve Trimble covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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B-21 Begins Moving Ground Tests Before First Flight
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble / Brian Everstine October 25, 2023
A Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber has been spotted conducting taxi tests in daylight in Palmdale, California, revealing a first, distant glimpse of the aft section and trailing edge of the Raider.
The start of moving ground tests provides another milestone on the path to a scheduled first flight by year’s end.
Despite the secrecy surrounding the program, the U.S. Air Force allowed Northrop employees to parade the B-21 down a semipublic runway in daylight in Palmdale, and did not hesitate to acknowledge the start of ground testing.
“I can confirm the B-21 is conducting ground taxi activities,” an Air Force spokeswoman said.
The Air Force offered no other details about testing, but the start of ground testing is a sign that first flight could be days or weeks away.
In 1989, the first B-2 aircraft started low-speed taxi tests on July 10. High-speed tests began three days later, and the first flight followed on July 17. Other programs have required weeks or months to clear all taxi testing before a first flight.
But Air Force and Northrop officials are not giving any clues about the pace of planned testing leading to a long-awaited first flight event.
“We’re being a little bit ambiguous because you know in the world of aviation aficionados and journalists wanting to know when first flight is, the adversary does too. So we’re not really giving specifics of how much longer we’ve got,” Tom Jones, president of Northrop’s Aeronautics Systems sector, told Aviation Week last month. “We are on track for a first flight this year.”
The ground testing announcement comes a day before Northrop reports third-quarter earnings.
Northrop started engine runs on the first Raider aircraft last month.
“We’ve made, as a program, investments in a fuel system simulator that we were able to use to derisk fuel transfer, and, as a result of that, we went from fuel-on to integrated test runs in like five days, which is unheard of, particularly in a flying wing type of design where fuel movement is all the more important,” Jones said.
A photograph of the B-21 during an apparent taxi test quickly appeared on Reddit on Oct. 2. Reddit user @Mug_of_Fire seemed to delete the picture within a few hours, however. By then, however, the picture had circulated on several social media sites.
The image showed new details of the trailing edge, aft section and powered-on configuration. The image reveals similar V-shaped exhaust nozzles as the B-2 in both engine nacelles.
The trailing-edge configuration showed at least three moving control surfaces on each wing. It was possible a fourth is installed on the most outboard wing section, but it was not visibly deployed in the picture.
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Steve Trimble covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Chinese J-11 Closes Within 10 Ft. Of B-52 In Latest Intercept
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine October 26, 2023
A People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-11 flew within 10 ft. of a U.S. Air Force B-52 in the South China Sea this week, the latest in a series of what the Pentagon alleges is a campaign of unsafe intercepts.
Defense Department officials say China is undertaking a centralized and concerted effort to change international air operations in open air space near contested areas in the region. Earlier this month, the department announced there had been 180 intercepts over the past two years.
One of the most dramatic such incidents took place on Oct. 24 involving the J-11 and the B-52. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said in a statement that the bomber was flying a routine operation over the South China Sea in international airspace at night when the Chinese fighter approached.
“During the nighttime intercept, the PRC [People’s Republic of China] pilot flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner, demonstrated poor airmanship by closing with uncontrolled excessive speed, flying below, in front of, and within 10 feet of the B-52, putting both aircraft in danger of collision,” INDOPACOM says. “We are concerned this pilot was unaware of how close he came to causing a collision.”
Ely Ratner, the assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said during an Oct. 17 briefing that China’s recent activity “seeks to intimidate and coerce members of the international community into giving up their rights under international law.”
The incident also comes shortly after the Pentagon released its yearly report on China’s military power, highlighting the issue—including other incidents during which Chinese fighters used maneuvers such as a high rate of closure and discharging flares close to U.S. aircraft.
“The PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] behavior contravenes flight safety protocols and the international maritime rules of the road, and increases the risk of a major accident, incident, or crisis, including the potential for loss of life,” the report says.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Aerolineas Argentinas Orders 12 E2 Jets
Aviation Week - Alan Dron October 13, 2023
Aerolineas Argentinas has ordered 12 Embraer 195-E2s to expand its crossover jet fleet.
The Argentinian flag-carrier currently operates 17 previous-generation E190s, with a further nine in storage, according to AWIN Fleet Discovery data. In an October 12 statement, the company said that the new E195-E2s would replace E190s, but did not specify whether the new arrivals would merely displace the same number of older models.
The E195-E2s will enter service from 2024, with deliveries being completed by 2026. They will offer significantly more capacity, with the new aircraft being configured for 136 seats compared to 96 in the E190s.
"With this agreement we are able to modernize our fleet, increase productivity and reduce the cost per seat,” Aerolineas Argentinas president, Pablo Ceriani said.
Embraer welcomed the decision to replace older models with the E195-E2. "The aircraft's performance, reduced environmental impact and the comfort of the aircraft's 2x2 seats, with no centre seats and huge internal luggage compartments, will be a significant change for Aerolíneas and its guests," Embraer CCO, Martyn Holmes said.
Fuel consumption of the new aircraft is calculated as being 13.8% better than the aircraft they will replace. The airline said that, in a dynamic and expanding domestic and regional market, the incorporation of larger, more efficient aircraft would generate 16% more revenue.
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Alan Dron
Based in London, Alan is Europe & Middle East correspondent at Air Transport World.
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U.S. Spaceflight Record-Setter Rubio Eagerly Adjusting To Earth
Aviation Week - Mark Carreau October 13, 2023
HOUSTON—NASA astronaut Frank Rubio is feeling good and so far pleased with how is body is responding to Earth’s gravity after a U.S. record-setting 371 days in space on the International Space Station (ISS).
But he expressed caution during an Oct. 13 NASA new briefing about how his post-Sept. 27 return to Earth might translate down the road as NASA transitions its human spaceflight focus from the seven-person ISS to much longer-duration deep space missions to the Moon and Mars.
“Honestly, it’s such a varied response,” he explained, emphasizing the importance of staying fit through regular exercise while in space and collaborating closely with crewmates and ground control teams in assessing risks and managing the work schedule. “But really, a lot is dictated by genetics, your size and weight,” he said. “So, there is a lot of variability and it’s hard to say with a blanket statement ‘Hey, we will all be good or not.’”
Rubio, a U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, Special Forces helicopter pilot and medical doctor, was selected by NASA for astronaut training in 2017. His first mission to space, initially planned for six months, turned into a U.S. record-setter.
He launched aboard Russia’s Soyuz MS-22 on Sept. 21, 2022, with cosmonauts Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitry Petelin. On Dec. 14, their Soyuz crew transport capsule experienced an external coolant leak while docked to the ISS Russian segment.
The coolant loss, which was traced to a possible micrometeoroid or orbital debris impact, prompted Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, and NASA to deorbit the MS-22 uncrewed on March 28, 2023, after replacing it with the launch of the uncrewed Soyuz MS-23 on Feb. 24, 2023.
The mission by Rubio, Prokopyev and Petelin was extended in response, enabling Rubio to surpass the previous U.S. record of 355 days for the longest U.S. spaceflight. That was set by NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei on March. 30, 2022, upon his return to Earth from the ISS.
Rubio said that he, Vande Hei and two other current and retired NASA astronauts—Christina Koch and Scott Kelly, who have logged more than 300-day ISS missions—will likely be medically monitored by NASA for the rest of their lives. That will help address the medical challenges to muscle and skeletal strength, cardiac function and changes in vision associated with long space missions.
“I can only speak to my experience, and I’ve been very pleasantly pleased. Honestly, I had a lot of curiosity myself. Just medical curiosity as to how my body was going to respond,” Rubio explained of his return to Earth. “Within a week, I actually felt very normal.”
Rubio initially experienced some pain in his feet and lower back after his lengthy stint in a weightless environment changed to readjusting to Earth’s gravity while reuniting with his wife and their four children.
“Within three days all the vertigo was gone. There was a little bit of vertigo when you first land. For the first couple of days you kind of veer a little to the right and left as you try to walk straight,” he explained. “Your mind is perfectly clear, but your body is not quite responding the way you expect it to. But within 72 hours that all cleared up, and I felt like it was really at a pretty high functional level. But again, that is kind of my response. That is really all I can speak to.”
As to whether he will launch to space again, Rubio said a possible opportunity is likely a couple of years away and will involve a health assessment, a consultation with his family and NASA deciding whether he could contribute to a mission.
“If I don’t fly myself, I hope to be at least helping crewmates, my buddies, get out there and do incredible things in space,” Rubio said.
The current 437-day world’s record for the longest human spaceflight was set by the late cosmonaut Valeri Polyakov aboard Russia’s former Mir space station between Jan. 8, 1994, and March 22, 1995. Rubio is now third on the world’s record list behind Polyakov and cosmonaut Sergei Avdeyev, who logged 380 days in orbit aboard Mir from Aug. 13, 1998, to Aug. 28, 1999.
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Mark Carreau
Mark is based in Houston, where he has written on aerospace for more than 25 years. While at the Houston Chronicle, he was recognized by the Rotary National Award for Space Achievement Foundation in 2006 for his professional contributions to the public understanding of America's space program through news reporting.
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Opinion: What The War Between Israel and Hamas Could Mean For Defense
Aviation Week - Byron Callan October 13, 2023
The Hamas invasion of Israel and Israel’s declaration of war have raised a series of new scenarios for defense analysts and planners to consider.
Israel’s response will be different than in prior conflicts with Hamas and may be even more visceral than the U.S. reaction after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. The U.S. responded to the 9/11 attacks with an invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban and attempt to capture al-Qaida leadership, and it invaded Iraq and began a wider war on terror in 2003 under the suspicion that Iraq had hidden nuclear capabilities.
This is how some may see what flows from the initial Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Israel will seek to destroy Hamas, but it also will embark on a path to reset its security environment. That could include eliminating Hezbollah as a threat, annexing the West Bank and then attacking Iran to punish and deter it from threatening Israel. Of course, Hezbollah could act on its own and attack Israel without provocation, as might Iran. Iraq’s decision to launch ballistic missiles against Israel after the start of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 is an example of how Hezbollah and Iran might behave.
It may be sage, however, to view these as a series of events that will not happen all at the same time or may not happen at all—at least after the initial campaign to eliminate Hamas—and to prepare for more stressful scenarios.
One question is how long a campaign to eliminate Hamas in Gaza will last. History shows a wide range in the length of major urban campaigns, and not all are like Gaza. At one extreme is the battle U.S. forces fought against Iraq in Baghdad in 2003. It lasted six days. Several urban battles that might be similar to Gaza in World War II and the Vietnam War lasted a month or less. Operation Cast Lead during which Israel made limited incursions into Gaza in 2008-09 lasted 21 days. At the more extreme end of the scale is the battle fought in Mosul, Iraq, in 2016-17, which went on for approximately 10 months.
Israel will want to bring the operation to a close as quickly as possible. Hamas will not have resupply, and Israel cannot afford high Palestinian civilian casualties, which would erode global support and raise the risk that Hezbollah and/or Iran would act or that relations with other Arab states would deteriorate.
In this scenario, demand for military products likely will be limited to surges of precision guided weapons, aircraft and helicopter rotatable parts and ammunition. There then comes the question of what Israel does with Gaza after the campaign. It cannot just withdraw and expect a city of 2 million people to recover quickly. There will be a longer-term cost of governing Gaza, both in terms of security forces and government resources.
A larger-scale war would have a far greater impact on global defense. Despite threatening to do so, Hezbollah might not choose to intervene and attack Israel. Lebanon is in dire straits economically, and an Israeli response could be far more damaging to Lebanon than the 2006 war was. Hezbollah and Iran might also weigh the weakened capacity of Russia to support the Assad regime in Syria.
However, Hezbollah has a far larger rocket and missile inventory than it did during the 2006 war. A report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2021 estimated Hezbollah has 130,000 rockets and missiles now, compared with 15,000 on the eve of the 2006 war. Hezbollah probably also has been observing the use of small uncrewed aircraft systems by Ukraine and Russia, which could add to its ability to inflict damage on Israel.
Israel has been keenly aware of this threat, and its Iron Dome has proven effective in earlier conflicts with Hamas. However, some batteries may have been overwhelmed by the far larger initial salvos Hamas fired on Oct. 7.
A war with Iran would be conducted by air and missile forces but would raise the same problems if Hezbollah and Iran were to coordinate their attacks. There may be 10-15 key critical infrastructure targets in Israel that would impose severe costs on Israel if damaged or destroyed. Iran could also lash out and attempt to hit crucial targets in other countries in the region.
A broader war in the Middle East cannot be ruled out, and its opening days may be as abrupt and chaotic as Oct. 7-9. Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine marked a significant change in global defense spending. A base case scenario is that Israel will seek to destroy Hamas and the campaign will be limited to Gaza. Still, more thought and preparation should be put into what a broader war could entail for the U.S. and European defense industrial bases that are already straining to meet Ukraine’s demands.
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The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
Byron Callan
Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington.
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The B-21 Raider: Designed For Low Risk
Aviation Week - Bill Sweetman October 11, 2023
The design of Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider points to a conservative approach on the part of the U.S. Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities Office. The B-21’s resemblance to the original B-2 bomber design is close, but it is a smaller aircraft, with a wingspan estimated at 132 ft. compared with the B-2’s 172 ft., and is approximately half the empty weight. The planform itself is driven by the need to accommodate complex inlets and exhausts and a large weapon bay within the flying-wing profile while staying within a maximum thickness-to-chord ratio compatible with efficient flight above Mach 0.8.
The B-21 planform, which has not been officially released, was depicted in a video that accompanied a presentation by Gen. Duke Richardson, commander of the U.S. Air Force Materiel Command, on Sept. 11 at the Air and Space Force Association’s (AFA) Air, Space & Cyber Conference at National Harbor, Maryland. A new set of images released that week included an undistorted head-on view that permitted a reliable estimate of the wingspan. Recently recovered unclassified imagery from Pratt & Whitney presentations dating back to the early 2010s proved to be a close match for the B-21’s inlets.
• U.S. Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office prioritized use of mature subsystems
• Northrop draws on aspects of B-2 bomber and X-47B UCAV
The B-21’s low-risk design in part stems from the program’s origins. Before 2009, the Air Force was working to a requirement known as Next-Generation Bomber (NGB). It has been characterized as complex and ambitious, with a full suite of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) sensors, a self-defense capability and long endurance. This was canceled in April 2009 by then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
The following year, the Air Force proposed a different approach to the mission, which Pentagon leadership found acceptable: a Long-Range Strike family of systems including classified uncrewed aircraft systems for ISR and electronic attack (the former becoming the Northrop Grumman RQ-180), a replacement cruise missile (now the Raytheon AGM-181) and the Long-Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B), for which a contract was awarded to Northrop Grumman in October 2015.
Aside from scrubbed and scaled-back requirements, the LRS-B project differed from NGB in three ways: Unit cost was a key performance parameter; two competing teams were funded through preliminary design review, which normally takes place after contract award; and management was assigned to the Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO). The RCO modeled its approach on the Lockheed F-117, developed using mature subsystems in a new platform so that the program could focus on applying new technology.
The B-21 emerging today is evidence that these principles have been adhered to. Its configuration and stealth technology have evolved from the “flying saucer” approach used on the B-2, but originally proposed in the late 1950s. Remarkably, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works founder and former chief Clarence “Kelly” Johnson, in a retrospective paper delivered in 1975 and quoting pre-SR-71 Blackbird work, noted that “a shape similar to flying saucers, with a sharp edge and no protuberances, has a very low radar cross-section without any anti-radar treatment.” And at a February 1959 conference with President Dwight Eisenhower, also discussing the future Blackbird, Harvard physicist Edward Purcell remarked that “the best shape would be a flying saucer.”
No documents found so far have explained the exact connection between the flying saucer phenomenon—the original popular term for unidentified aerial phenomena—and early stealth developments. But one part of the explanation may be that the mysterious craft were often believed to evade radar detection and that it would naturally occur to anyone with knowledge of radar that the shape might have something to do with it.
The classic 1950s flying saucer shape—seamless and continuously curved, with a domed center flaring out to a sharp edge—is visible on the B-21. Some details, though, are reminiscent of the X-47B—the uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV) designed by Northrop Grumman—such as the longer nose, or “beak.” This feature is a result of the need for continuous sharp leading edges, but with a curved-down nose to improve stall characteristics. As on the B-2, however, the saucer profile in elevation is matched with a straight-edge planform to concentrate residual radar reflections—reduced by deep-section radar-absorbent material (RAM) edges—in the smallest possible number of “spikes.”
The design benefits from advances in computational engineering and simulation. The B-2 was designed with the help of early 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD), but airflows on a blended wing body shape are highly 3D with effects propagating from the center-body outward, and more recent designs using 3D CFD are more efficient.
Computational electromagnetics allows for better low radar cross-section (RCS) shapes and more efficient use of RAM and eliminates much of the empirical cut-and-try methods used in earlier programs: Northrop Grumman closed its Tejon Ranch, California, outdoor RCS test range in 2011.
The B-21 is also the first known major U.S. military aircraft program to be fully designed on a digital thread, with not only the shape but the physical characteristics of each part built into a digital prototype. This has allowed errors to be caught early and has made it possible, according to program officials, to incorporate all core systems on the first aircraft.
The differences from the B-2 include the new bomber’s planform. In fact, the B-2 planform at contract award in October 1981 was similar to the B-21’s now, but a low-altitude dash capability was added to the requirement late in its evolution. In early 1983, Northrop engineers discovered that the original design had insufficient control power to alleviate gust loads at the same time as controlling the aircraft, and it was necessary to add control area farther aft, close to the centerline, for rigidity. The fix resulted in the B-2’s unique planform, but at a price in time, weight and cost—and the low-altitude capability was never used.
Some of the features carried over from the X-47B include the apparent absence of split brake-rudder surfaces. Instead, the plan-view sketch suggests the presence of “inlay” surfaces above the wing, which would not be used in stealth mode. Instead, lateral and longitudinal control are provided by eight trailing-edge surfaces, augmented by differential thrust as on the B-2.
The center-body section matches images of highly serpentine inlets mated to a medium-bypass engine. Pratt & Whitney discussed such an engine, the PW9000, as a future bomber powerplant in 2010 but has not mentioned it since. The PW9000 used the core of the PW1000G commercial engine family, mated to a direct-drive fan with a 4:1 bypass ratio. On the B-2, the low-bypass GE F118 engine was selected because it was too risky to place a higher-bypass engine, more sensitive to flow distortion, behind the curved and RAM-treated inlet ducts needed to hide the fan face from radar. With the aid of better CFD, that problem can be eliminated: Northrop Grumman proposed a large bomber UAV in 2005, powered by two modified GE CF34 turbofans, and Lockheed Martin flew the Polecat demonstrator in 2006 with two Williams FJ44s.
Further evidence of innovation in the propulsion installation is that it is one of very few specific B-21 problem areas mentioned in public. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, mentioned potential inlet and exhaust issues in March 2018. In March 2021, then-RCO Director Randall Walden said that a redesign was completed before the design was frozen, without affecting the schedule.
A higher bypass ratio provides much better specific fuel consumption than the B-2’s fighter-type engine, improving range, and would enable a cooler, lower-velocity exhaust, not only lowering the B-21’s infrared signature but also alleviating thermomechanical stress on the open “aft deck” area of the exhaust, immediately ahead of the trailing edge.
The B-21’s structure benefits from the absence of a low-level flight requirement and improvements in both composite materials and RAM, reducing the use of fillers and tapes. While the RAM itself would perform the same functions as on earlier stealth aircraft, with multiple layers to absorb energy, diffuse surface currents and protect the skin from lightning, it would require less maintenance than the notoriously finicky B-2 surface.
Internally, the B-21 apparently uses many proven systems. At the AFA meeting, Doug Young, Northrop Grumman vice president and general manager for strike systems, noted that where possible, the company has used commercial components and systems on the aircraft, reducing costs and taking advantage of long-lasting commercial supply networks. Early in the program, one Washington consultant with close ties to BAE Systems disclosed that the electronic warfare system of the B-21 is closely related to the Lockheed Martin F-35’s ASQ-239.
The most important feature of the avionics, however, is an open mission systems architecture. Young compares older systems with adding peripherals to a computer in the early PC age, where “you had to go through a whole rigmarole to make it work.” But the B-21 has standard interfaces and a partitioned architecture where changes to the mission systems cannot affect flight-critical functions.
The B-21 program includes a “software factory,” Young said, which is already developing capabilities beyond the service-entry baseline. And under a program called Spirit Realm, a partitioned architecture is being developed for the B-2 fleet.
After Lockheed Martin and Boeing unsuccessfully protested the Air Force’s B-21 contract award to Northrop Grumman, a consultant to both companies wrote that “there’s a real possibility that the B-21 program isn’t executable at the price the winning team bid—which would mean either big cost overruns or program termination.”
Northrop has warned that it faces up to a $1.2 billion charge on the first five years of low-rate initial production for the B-21 due to inflation-related cost increases not anticipated when bids were submitted in 2015.
But a lesson to be drawn from the B-21’s appearance is that the designers of the B-2 did an amazingly good job “inventing to schedule” while existing materials and subsystems were inadequate and produced a basic vehicle architecture that was still considered the best choice almost 40 years later.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/b-21-raider-designed-low-risk
The Weekly Debrief: No Easy Fix For F-35 Sustainment Cost Problems, GAO Says
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble September 25, 2023
Pentagon officials think they can make the Lockheed Martin F-35 cheaper to operate by taking over several of the sustainment functions outsourced to industry at the beginning of the program.
The problem is that the government still does not have a plan to successfully wrestle those functions away from the collection of contractors that now jealously own those roles.
The lack of a transition plan is compounded by the pressure of a 2027 deadline to transfer the sustainment activity for the F-35 to the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marines from the Joint Program Office (JPO).
Perhaps more importantly, if the program can’t meet the services’ aggressive affordability targets for operating the F-35, a clause in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2021 will block the U.S. military from buying more of the stealth fighters starting in 2028.
That stark scenario is laid out in a 96-p. report released on Sept. 22 by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) that paints a grim picture of indecision within the Pentagon over how to best rein in the F-35’s operating costs.
Lockheed, as the prime contractor, has argued for years that the program should transition to a long-term, performance-based logistics contract. The long-term visibility on spending would, Lockheed argues, incentivize industry to invest in efficiency improvements, which would lower overall costs by at least 10% or more.
But Defense Department officials aren’t persuaded that the JPO is ready to negotiate performance-based logistics contracts, GAO’s auditors say in the new report.
Besides, the Pentagon thinks any savings from a performance-based logistics approach would not exceed potential spending cuts from other approaches.
Instead of handing Lockheed a long-term deal to sustain the U.S. F-35 fleet, the Pentagon instead would prefer to save money by transferring some of the functions now performed by industry to government-owned depots, the report says.
Specifically, the Pentagon could assume control over managing the supply of spare parts, decisions over allocating workload for depots and maintaining the ground support equipment, GAO says.
Such moves would address a long list of government complaints about Lockheed’s contractual stewardship of the F-35 sustainment enterprise. In visits to F-35 operating bases, GAO’s auditors heard that it can take up to 60 days for F-35 maintainers to receive responses to requests for access to technical data.
“According to maintainers we spoke to, part numbers reside in a database that is proprietary to the prime contractor. Maintainers do not have access. Not having ready access to part numbers hinders the repair of the aircraft because it delays the ordering and receipt of needed parts,” the GAO report says.
Although those problems have been known for years, the Pentagon still can’t find a solution. At the beginning of the program, the government chose not to acquire the F-35 technical data and to rely on Lockheed to oversee the sustainment system.
Since 2017, Pentagon officials have been trying to find ways to pry the necessary technical data on the F-35 from Lockheed’s proprietary control. The JPO, for example, established a Technical Data Working Group, with the goal of gathering “cataloging and provisioning data” that would support a government-managed depot repair network.
“Progress from the initiative has been minimal due to stalled negotiations and legal actions,” GAO says.
The delays could have consequences. Mission capability rates for the U.S. F-35 fleet declined in 2021 and 2022, wiping out gains achieved in 2020, GAO says. Moreover, in 2036, the F-35 fleet is expected to cost about $6 billion more than estimated to operate.
The program now has four years to close the gap between cost estimates and actual spending on a cost per tail per year basis. Unless the section of the fiscal 2021 defense authorization law is repealed, the Pentagon would be prohibited from buying more F-35s after 2028 without a dramatic reduction in operating costs.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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In An Emergency, Trust But Verify, Part 2
Aviation Week - Roger Cox September 26, 2023
The complete loss of a large transport airplane like a Boeing 737 usually brings out the NTSB in force. That was the case with Transair 810.
The initial NTSB headquarters Search and Recovery team arrived in Honolulu the day of the accident and got started promptly. The team made arrangements to find and recover the wreckage. The Operations and Human Performance and Air Traffic groups arrived the next day. Other groups formed later.
A crash of this type could have been a major (Class 1) investigation, but it was eventually rated as Class 2. Even though major resources were deployed, there were no fatalities, and the NTSB found no reason to write any recommendations. No “sunshine” board meeting was held.
One of the first orders of business was to interview the pilots and the air traffic controllers involved in the accident. The two pilots had sustained injuries but were released from the hospital and were interviewed on July 5 and 6, 2021, days after the accident. It was important to talk to them while their memories were fresh.
Among the first questions for the flight crew, an investigator asked the captain which engine indications he had seen besides the EPR after the failure. “I didn’t get a chance to scrutinize those gauges,” the captain replied. He said he asked the FO what the EGT readings were. Even though he was the pilot monitoring throughout the takeoff and climb, the captain did not try to look at and analyze what the engine instruments were telling him.
“If Greg (the FO) tells you the sky is blue, don't look at the sky—it’s blue,” the captain said. “That is how much I trust Greg.”
When investigators asked the FO to describe the event, he did not hesitate. “Before the 400-ft. call, after the gear came up we lost the Number 1 engine,” he said. “[I] heard a pop and it went still and all the gauges on the left side—the Number 1—just dropped.”
Then the FO seemed less certain. “I thought I knew it was the left engine except the airplane yawed to the, to the right, which shouldn’t have been the case and that may just be I stepped on the rudder or something,” he said. “I don’t know.”
Then came the Freudian slip. “No, I think we—once we agreed it was the right engine—nothing changed after that,” the FO said. “I’m sorry; it was the right engine that was still running is what I …” He caught himself and said it was the right rudder he was pressing to compensate for yaw. His story didn’t make sense and he knew it.
After the initial launch and data collection effort, there was a hiatus while the airplane wreckage, including the recorders, were found and recovered. The aft fuselage was located on July 7. The next day, the rest of the wreckage was found, lying at depths between 354 ft.-437 ft. Wreckage recovery operations began on October 12 and concluded on Nov. 2, 2021.
The captain, 58, had an estimated 15,781 flight hr., with 871 in the Boeing 737-200. He had a Class 1 medical certificate but was required to wear glasses during flight. He was wearing them. He had worked for seven airlines before coming to Transair in 2019. He liked working for Transair and preferred to pick up extra flying on his days off.
He had flown on each of the three days before the accident, each night reporting at 0015 and finishing duty at 0730, 1202 and 0723, respectively, on June 29, 30 and July 1, 2021. On those three days he had flown a total of 20 flights. He remarked that daytime rest was often difficult to get as a result of noise from dogs, sirens, neighbors, and grass cutting using a weed whacker.
The captain said he had experienced five engine failures and seven precautionary or emergency landings in the two years he had worked for the company. After one engine failure, Transair’s chief pilot had criticized him for returning to the airport without performing the relevant abnormal checklist. He had promised to run the checklist if it happened again.
The FO was 50 years old. He had an Airline Transport certificate, was type rated in the Boeing 737, and had a Class 2 medical certificate with a limitation that he must wear corrective lenses, which he was wearing. He estimated his total flying time to be 5,272 hr., 908 of which were in the Boeing 737-200. He had flown for Mesa Airlines from 1991-95 before resigning and going to law school.
The FO was an attorney and had his own law office in Honolulu. He had not flown for 24 years when he decided to take a job with Transair. He had been there for two years, during which time he had not experienced any engine failures. He continued to work at his legal office during the day when he had the time. He felt his sleep pattern was good and he was rested before the accident flight.
The Aircraft And Engine
The Boeing 737-275C was manufactured in 1975 and had accumulated 72,871 total hours and 69,446 total cycles before the accident flight. The two Pratt & Whitney JT8D-9A turbofan engines had been installed in 2019. The left engine, manufactured in 1971, had accumulated 32,305 total hours and 33,670 total cycles. The right engine was manufactured on Jan. 10, 1968, and had accumulated 70,827 total hours and 101,368 total cycles.
The FDR and CVR were recovered in October 2021. The FDR only had 18 parameters and thrust lever position and engine indications other than engine pressure ratio were not included. The two-hour CVR was intact and a full transcript was made.
An NTSB performance engineer and a Boeing performance study confirmed that the 737 had performed properly in accordance with its design. A powerplant study of the right engine showed the outer spans of two high-pressure turbine stage 1 blades were missing. Blade Nos. 1 and 6 were fractured transversely about 2.4 and 2.7 in., respectively, above the platform trailing edge. The blades failed by stress rupture resulting from a loss of load-bearing material due to oxidation and corrosion.
While operator Rhoades Aviation had been subject to several Letters of Investigation from the FAA, the NTSB found that maintenance was not a factor in the accident.
Conclusions of the accident investigation and our comments follow in Part 3 of this article.
In An Emergency, Trust But Verify, Part 1, https://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/safety-ops-regulation/emergency-trust-verify-part-1
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Roger Cox
A former military, corporate and airline pilot, Roger Cox was also a senior investigator at the NTSB. He writes about aviation safety issues.
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USMC Finds Missing F-35B Amid Aviation Safety Standdown
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble Brian / Everstine September 18, 2023
A frantic search for a missing F-35B whose pilot safely ejected ended late on Sept. 18 after U.S. military officials discovered a debris field in a remote area of South Carolina.
The roughly 28-hr. search for the Lockheed Martin-made stealth fighter included an unusual request to the public for any tips on the F-35B’ss whereabouts and prompted the U.S. Marine Corps to announce a two-day aviation standdown to review safety procedures.
The pilot was found on South Kenwood Avenue on the afternoon of Sept. 17 after ejecting less than a mile from the runway at Charleston International Airport, local news reports say. The pilot was transferred to a local hospital in stable condition, according to a statement by Joint Base Charleston.
But the aircraft continued flying in a northeasterly direction until finally crashing about “two hours northeast of Joint Base Charleston” in Williamsburg County, South Carolina, the Marine Corps said in a statement. If the hourly measurement referred to a driving distance, that would have put the debris field in the far northeastern corner of Williamsburg County.
Until the crash location was discovered, however, military officials faced the unlikely security threat of a missing advanced weapon system with several classified technologies onboard. In a sign of the military’s desperation for clues, Joint Base Charleston published a public plea for tips within an hour of the pilot’s ejection.
“If you have any information on the whereabouts of the F-35 that would help the recovery team, please call the JB Charleston Base Defense Operations Center,” the base said on a social media channels.
More than an hour after releasing the initial statement, the base released a quick update that narrowed the search for the F-35B to a remote, boggy area north of Charleston.
The F-35B belonged to the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing’s Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501, which is based at Marine Corps Base Beaufort, South Carolina.
In a statement, the wing said the incident was under investigation and since it is ongoing, additional details would not be releasable “to preserve the integrity of the investigatory process.”
Following the incident, Marine Corps Acting Commandant Gen. Eric Smith ordered the two-day pause in operations. During the stand down, aviation commanders are directed to discuss safe flight operations, ground safety, maintenance and flight procedures with their Marines.
The stand down comes less than a month after Smith ordered a review of safety policies and procedures after an MV-22 Osprey crashed during a training exercise in Australia, killing five Marines.
The wing suffered another F-35B crash in 2018 due to a manufacturing flaw in a fuel tube, but the pilot safely ejected.
If an aircraft is equipped with an ejection seat, the location of the crash site is normally proximate to where the ejected pilot lands. But there have been cases where an aircraft continued flying for hundreds of miles after the pilot ejected.
In 1989, for example, a Soviet Air Force Mikoyan MiG-23 crashed in Belgium, but that was 600 mi. from where the pilot ejected over Poland. The pilot ejected after the afterburner failed and the aircraft began descending, but after his ejection the engine kept running and the aircraft continued flying on autopilot.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Tim.
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USAF: Three Months Enough For Some Ukrainian Pilots To Learn F-16
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine September 18, 2023
NATIONAL HARBOR, Maryland—Experienced Ukrainian pilots could learn to fly the multirole missions of the Lockheed Martin F-16—including using heat-seeking and radar-guided air-to-air missiles—in as little as three months, U.S. Air Force leaders say as the training pipeline is preparing to begin.
The U.S.-hosted share of F-16 training is standing up at Morris Air National Guard Base, Arizona, in addition to other efforts hosted by nations in Europe.
Lt. Gen. Michael Loh, director of the Air National Guard, told reporters Sept. 12 at the Air and Space Forces Association’s Air Space & Cyber Conference here that he has directed the wing commander to tailor training for the “particular threat” that trainees would need to fight. For Ukraine, this includes both air-to-ground and air-to-air fighting.
“We will train them to do the full, multirole spectrum,” Loh says.
The Air National Guard last year hosted Ukrainian pilots to assess their ability to learn the F-16, and Loh says this showed pilots could learn the F-16 in as little as three months or as long as nine months if they are not experienced. “For the ones currently experienced, flying day-to-day sorties over there, I think three months is absolutely realistic.”
Gen. James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, said the F-16 will not simply give Ukraine air superiority, but “it’s a start.”
Hecker pointed to Poland as an example. In 2002, Poland selected the F-16 to replace its fleet of Soviet-era aircraft including MiG-29s and MiG-21s. The U.S. helped Poland train on the aircraft and adopt Western tactics. Hecker says the U.S. will take a similar approach with Ukraine. However, it will not be as quick because it is “tough to do that in the middle of war.”
Flying the F-16 means Ukraine will have an easier time using Western weapons that had to be creatively integrated on its existing fleet, such as AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles and Joint Direct Attack Munitions.
Pilots will be able to quickly pick up the ability to take off and land with the F-16, and be able to do basic weapons employment. However, more intensive tactics and even a deep understanding of the aircraft’s hands-on throttle and stick would take longer.
“Putting it all together is where things get really difficult,” he says.
Western nations have pledged to donate about 50 F-16s to Ukraine. Loh says this will be enough to have a sizable force to make an impact. Loh, who was previously Colorado’s adjutant general, worked with Jordan through the State Partnership Program. Jordan’s air force has a similarly sized fleet of F-16s, which is enough to have a training unit and two operational squadrons.
Hosting Ukrainian pilots at Morris means other pilots set to start training may be displaced. Training Ukraine is a “priority of our nation,” so choices will need to be made to bump other pilots back in the pipeline, he says.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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• LOCKHEED MARTIN F-16
• U.S. AIR FORCE (USAF)
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U.S. Navy Is Steaming Ahead On A New Trainer
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine September 07, 2023
The U.S. Navy wants to move on quickly from its troubled T-45 Goshawk trainer toward the next-generation Undergraduate Jet Training System, but new requirements for the latter aircraft may slow the replacement process.
For years, the service has debated whether a future trainer—which would also be used for Marine Corps pilots—must be able to operate from a carrier like the T-45 does. Operational aircraft such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 are capable of autolanding on the ship. An Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS) request for information (RFI) released in mid-August provides a compromise:
The future trainer would not be designed to go to the ship, but would need to be able to endure repeated unflared landings to practice the carrier flight profile.
• Service emphasizes harsh, carrier-like operations in solicitation
• Textron and Leonardo announce teaming agreement
• Lockheed Martin, Boeing showcase updated offerings
This would require further engineering and development for the announced candidate aircraft, likely stretching out the program.
“The government assumes the development of [Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP)] is the main schedule driver,” the RFI states.
While the Navy has trickled out multiple UJTS solicitations in the past five years, service officials say they are now pressing ahead to speed up the replacement. During a panel discussion at the Tailhook Symposium in Sparks, Nevada, on Aug. 26, then-Commander of Naval Air Forces Vice Adm. Kenneth Whitesell, who is retiring, said former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday told the command to “get out of the T-45 as fast as possible.”
The RFI calls for an assumed contract award in 2026, for a minimum of 145 aircraft at a full-rate production of 25 per year. This would make the UJTS competition the service’s second largest aviation acquisition effort, behind its sixth-generation F/A-XX program.
During the Tailhook Symposium, three competitors for the UJTS were on display, including one previously unannounced industry team.
Textron Aviation Defense and Leonardo are teaming up to offer the M-346N, a modified version of the M-346 operating in several countries including Italy, Poland and Singapore. It is the latest iteration of the M-346 proposed for U.S. services after Leonardo alone offered it for the U.S. Air Force’s T-X program. Textron says it is focusing on M-346N for the training role, while its similar Scorpion is a possible entrant for other light attack programs.
“With a combined history of more than 140 years designing and producing the world’s most prolific military flight trainers, our two companies share a vital top priority—providing and sustaining the world’s finest military flight training systems,” says Tom Webster, vice president for Textron Aviation defense global sales and strategy.
Textron’s offer is the latest in its Navy training history through Beechcraft, following aircraft such as the T-34 Mentor, T-44 Pegasus, T-6 Texan II and the T-54A, which was recently selected for the Navy’s Multiengine Training System. The new agreement comes just three months after Leonardo announced a similar deal with Airbus to offer the M-346 in Europe in preparation for the European Future Combat Air System. The M-346 is already in service with several nations, including Greece, Israel, Italy, Poland, Qatar and Singapore, along with the International Flight Training School.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin displayed the TF-50N, its newest version of the T-50, partnering with Korean Aerospace Industries for the program. Current operators of the T-50 include Indonesia, Iraq, Malaysia, the Philippines, Poland, South Korea and Thailand.
Greg Moseley, Lockheed Martin’s director of domestic business development for its integrated fighter group, says the baseline T-50 is a proven platform—it has been used to train more than 2,500 student pilots and logged more than 300,000 flight hours. As part of a new agreement with Korean Aerospace Industries, Lockheed Martin has worked closely with South Korean pilots to assess their transition from flying T-40s to F-35s to guide the TF-50N offering.
Lockheed’s engineers have been reviewing the Navy’s latest RFI to determine what added work the aircraft would need. Though the requirements for unflared landings and glideslope would put stress on a trainer’s airframe over its lifespan, the company is confident it will meet the Navy’s requirements.
“The Navy is harder on their platforms, and rightfully so,” Moseley says. “Their sole fighter platforms are recovering to carriers, and so it does take and it will take a much longer and harder look at engineering and fuselage strain on platforms. But as our engineers continue to focus on it, I really believe we’ll be in a strong position as we come out of the research we’re doing.”
Lockheed Martin is not yet ready to specify the exact capabilities of the TF-50N, which will depend on the company’s response to the RFI. Still, Moseley asserts, “We’re going to be very competitive going forward.”
At the symposium, Boeing displayed a Navy white-and-orange version of its T-7A Red Hawk—the winner of the Air Force’s T-X program, with at least 351 of the aircraft expected for the service. Like its competitors, Boeing says it will refine its aircraft to meet FCLP requirements.
“We plan to work with the U.S. Navy to modify the T-7 to meet the requirements for their Undergraduate Jet Training System,” says Donn Yates, Boeing’s executive director for fighters and trainers business development. “We see this as an opportunity to help define and develop future training needs for the Navy’s next generation of naval aviators.”
Other prospective competitors include the Sierra Nevada Corp.’s Freedom, an aircraft it originally partnered with Turkish Aerospace Industries on for the T-X program. The company teased the competition ahead on social media of Tailhook with a photo of the aircraft in the Navy’s signature orange and white.
The increased emphasis on the carrier landing profile and repeated unflared landings is new in the August RFI, compared to previous versions released as early as 2018. Specifically, the document calls for an aircraft that can maintain a fixed angle-of-attack approach targeting a 3-deg. glideslope while maintaining field of view during an unflared landing. The aircraft needs to be capable of 6-10 unflared landings per training event, as well as conducting unflared landings throughout its service life.
To further replicate carrier operations, the aircraft must be able to maintain control and come to a stop on a minimum 6,000-ft.-long X 100-ft.-wide runway. In performance, the aircraft needs to be capable of Mach 0.9, a 7.33g sustained load factor and a ceiling of 41,000 ft.
Driving home the importance of FCLP operations, the Navy is inviting industry to a training base in Texas in October to monitor T-45 touch-and-goes in the flight profile “to enhance industry’s understanding of the unique Navy landings.”
In addition to the UJTS, the Navy has expressed interest in a Tactical Surrogate Aircraft to further improve pilot training. A fleet of about 64 aircraft would provide advanced instruction following the undergraduate program. Though discussed, the program has seen no movement since an October 2021 request for information.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Search Underway For Missing F-35B After Pilot Ejects
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble September 17, 2023
U.S. military officials are searching for a missing Lockheed Martin F-35B after its pilot safely ejected near an airport in North Charleston, South Carolina on Sept. 17.
The pilot was found on South Kenwood Avenue after ejecting less than a mile from the runway at Charleston International Airport, local news reports say. The pilot was then transferred to a local hospital in stable condition, according to a statement by Joint Base Charleston.
But the aircraft still had not been found more than 2 hr. after the pilot ejected, prompting military officials to take the unusual step of asking the public for clues.
“The public is asked to cooperate with military and civilian authorities as the effort continues,” the statement by Joint Base Charleston says. “If you have any information on the whereabouts of the F-35 that would help the recovery team, please call the JB Charleston Base Defense Operations Center.”
More than an hour after releasing the initial statement, the base released a quick update that narrowed the search for the F-35B to a particular area.
“Based on the jet’s last-known position and in coordination with the FAA, we are focusing our attention north of JB Charleston, around Lake Moultrie and Lake Marion,” the base said.
The F-35B belonged to the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing’s Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501, which is based at Marine Corps Base Beaufort, South Carolina.
The wing suffered another F-35B crash in 2018 due to a manufacturing flaw in a fuel tube, but the pilot safely ejected.
If an aircraft is equipped with an ejection seat, the location of the crash site is normally proximate to where the ejected pilot lands. But there have been cases where an aircraft continued flying for hundreds of miles after the pilot ejected.
In 1989, for example, a Soviet Air Force Mikoyan MiG-23 crashed in Belgium, but that was 600 miles from where the pilot ejected over Poland. The pilot ejected after the afterburner failed and the aircraft began descending, but after his ejection the engine kept running and the aircraft continued flying on autopilot.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Trainer Engine Troubles Worsen U.S. Air Force, Navy Pilot Shortages
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine September 13, 2023
Both the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy have been plagued by a stubborn shortage of pilots despite several efforts to increase their ranks, and both services have faced the same specific issue blocking progress.
In short, old engines on aged training aircraft have forced a cutback in training flights, in turn worsening the shortages.
The Air Force relies on the aging T-38C Talon II jet trainer, which is powered by a GE Aerospace J85 turbojet that dates back to the early 1950s. Recently, J85 problems have decreased the T-38C’s readiness rates into the low 50% range, disrupting the Air Force’s training plans.
• USAF wants to produce J-85 parts itself
• Navy looking to decrease carrier requirements
“The entire system is struggling right now because there are not many people in the world that are flying J-85 engines,” says Maj. Gen. Clark Quinn, commander of the 19th Air Force.
For the Navy, the news is not much better for its old T-45 Goshawk fleet. Following a series of hypoxia--like events in 2016 that caused a large decrease in mission capability, the fleet had started to improve. However, three “black swan” events involving the Rolls-Royce Adour engine have placed limits on the aircraft’s flight hours. In October 2022, for example, a compressor blade shot through an engine at NAS Kingsville, Texas, and the service grounded the fleet for 4.5 months.
For both services, the engine issues highlight the need to move beyond the old T-38s and T-45s as soon as possible. The Air Force is looking forward to fielding the Boeing T-7A Red Hawk with initial operational capability expected in 2027. The Navy is starting its Undergraduate Jet Training System acquisition plan, with a request for information released in August (see page 34).
Quinn, who took command of the 19th Air Force in May 2023, says the U.S. Air Force’s total pilot shortage is at about 2,000 pilots. That number is approximately the same as it was in 2019, a year after the service first stood up a task force to target the issue in 2018. Along with a series of syllabus changes, such as increasing simulator use including virtual reality in early training, the service planned to address the shortage by moving student pilots through training more quickly.
In early 2022, the service had planned to train about 1,500 students per year. However, the T-38’s engine problems made that goal impossible. That, combined with a shortage of instructors, has limited Air Education and Training Command’s (AETC) ability to chip away at the shortage.
After dialing back flying hours as engine issues first emerged on the T-38 in 2022, the problem has not specifically gotten worse, but it has not gotten better, Quinn says. The service relies on StandardAero under a 2020 contract to overhaul the J-85 engines, but because the GE powerplant is no longer in production and parts are in short supply, the Air Force itself is looking to get involved in more maintenance.
“We, the government, is looking at perhaps doing some in-house . . . parts production to try and help facilitate getting the engine back healthy,” Quinn says.
The idea, which is in its infancy, would focus on the government putting together parts that are most needed to be fed into depot maintenance instead of looking to contract out more production, he says.
Beyond just the engine, the Air Force has recently stood up a broader T-38 effort called the Talon Repair Inspection and Maintenance (TRIM) program. This effort focuses on inspecting and repairing critical structure areas on T-38s—not just aircraft used in AETC, but also those used by Air Combat Command, Air Force Global Strike Command and the Navy. TRIM replaces nearly 200 primary structure components, including longerons, bulkheads, skins and many others. The program also handles inspections of more than 150 other components, AETC said in a statement.
In the meantime, the Air Force faces a backlog of more than 900 prospective pilots who are awaiting training. AETC says that about 25% of these pilots have a wait of more than nine months, with most waiting between three and nine months to start training. During this time, lieutenants do required initial flight training and survival training, and some are assigned to operational or staff organizations.
The number of pilots awaiting U.S. Navy training is about the same. There’s good news on the initial T-6 and rotary wing training, both of which are at about 105% of the overall goal, according to a briefing at the annual Tailhook Symposium on Aug. 25. However, T-45 training is at about 80% following the grounding.
This comes after years of underproduction at the Naval Air Training Command, which fell about 10% below its goal last year. This caused a backlog of about 1,000 pilots. At one point, students were waiting 14 months to start training. Like the Air Force, the Navy has stood up new efforts to ensure that this time is not wasted, including certification programs and a Student Naval Aviation Junior Officer course for preflight instruction.
Coupled with T-45 issues, the Navy has seen a lingering issue with a strike-fighter pilot shortage.
For example, the Navy’s main strike fighter—the Boeing F/A-18—has not been receiving enough pilots in recent years, according to the briefing at the Tailhook conference. In 2016, the T-45 trained 113% of the required F/A-18 pilots, until engine issues hit the fleet. That caused the percentage to drop to just 43% by fiscal 2018, before starting to rise. In 2023, the percentage of pilots trained for T-45s reached 71%.
With regard to the “black swan” events that the Navy has seen, an inspection found the engine compressor blade was manufactured out of tolerance. The fleet has since been fixed to return to flight after the grounding, Naval Air Systems Command says.
In an attempt to accelerate pilot training, the Navy in 2022 started a program called the Carrier Qualification Pilot Project (CQPP). Under this program, students will not actually land on an aircraft carrier before going to fleet replacement squadrons (FRS)—a paradigm shift for traditional naval aviation. The service says early indications show that these pilots are nearly indistinguishable from those who go through the original syllabus.
At the time of the August briefing, 32 pilots had gone through CQPP. When they got to the FRS for their first carrier landing, 30 made it on the first try. The remaining two came around and landed “just fine” the second time, says Rear Adm. Richard Brophy, chief of Naval Air Training.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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The Weekly Debrief: DARPA Wants To Capture The Next Chinese Spy Balloon
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble August 07, 2023
Instead of facing a heat-seeking missile launched by a Lockheed Martin F-22 at nearly 60,000 ft., the next airspace-violating Chinese spy balloon could be captured in flight, allowing its undamaged, intelligence-collecting payloads and stratospheric navigational technology to be inspected by U.S. analysts.
That is the goal of the newly advertised Capturing Aerial Payloads to Unleash Reliable Exploitation (Capture) project by DARPA. Instead of shooting down the next buoyant airspace intruder, DARPA wants to find a way to haul high-altitude balloons down safely from up to 75,000 ft.
Capture focuses “on the ability to down high-altitude systems at a time and place of our choosing to minimize collateral damage, maximize usefulness of the recovered payload, and minimize the cost of the response,” Kyle Woerner, DARPA’s program manager, told Aerospace DAILY in an emailed statement.
The program is being managed through DARPA’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, which sets aside about $150 million out of the agency’s $3.8 billion budget for nontraditional defense companies to submit programs.
The Capture effort skips the Phase 1 SBIR process and offers a direct-to-Phase 2 award. Such deals normally have a ceiling of about $1.8 million. The Capture effort is part of DARPA’s SBIR XL pilot, which raises the ceiling for Phase 2 awards to $4 million with an optional $500,000 enhancement. Although Capture falls an order of magnitude short of the funding for a conventional DARPA program, agency officials think it will be enough for a small company to demonstrate the minimal viable product of a Capture system for a high-altitude object.
“If successful in a minimum viable program, DARPA may choose to further invest to mature such a technology, often with the support of our military service partners,” said Woerner, who also has managed DARPA’s Manta Ray uncrewed underwater vehicle program.
The Chinese balloon shot down on Feb. 4 off the coast of South Carolina was estimated by Gen. Glen VanHerck, the commander of U.S. Northern Command, to weight “thousands of pounds.” The Capture program, however, is seeking solutions that could Capture a high-altitude aerial system weighing only 500-1,500 lb.
But Woerner explained that the goals of the SBIR-funded project do not include demonstrating an operationally viable system.
“DARPA does not necessarily create solutions that are ready to fully replicate and transition to the military services,” Woerner said. “Rather, DARPA’s mission focuses on rapidly retiring the most challenging risks of a specific problem, often seeking to find a solution to the hardest aspects that inhibit the services from pursuing a program of record.”
Any companies that respond before the Sept. 21 deadline face several technical challenges. Their proposed system must be able to capture an object at an altitude that can only be reached by a few of the most advanced aircraft types in the U.S. fleet, including the F-22 and the Lockheed U-2S. Then, the Capture system must take control of a potentially noncooperative object and do so “in a manner allowing for controlled descent for recovery near inhabited or otherwise currently avoided recovery areas,” according to DARPA’s solicitation.
The system also must be able to respond to “aerial systems of interest approaching or within any U.S. sovereign airspace” within hours of an engagement decision, the solicitation adds. Technically, that requirement means the system must be able to scale up to respond to any incursion over a vast area from Guam to Puerto Rico and the northern tip of Alaska to American Samoa.
Another challenge is the capture method itself. In the past, the U.S. military has demonstrated midair captures by Lockheed Martin C-130s of film canisters dropped by satellites in orbit, and an inflight autonomous refueling capability by two high-altitude Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawks. In both cases, the objects were either cooperative or nonresistant, and took place tens of thousands of feet below the operating altitude of China’s spy balloons.
“I don’t see high-altitude reconnaissance planes with all the complexities of flying so high being able to do the task,” said Luis Pacheco, the editor of StratoCat, which tracks high-altitude balloon technology.
“I guess you first need to get the balloon down in a non-catastrophic way to a lower altitude on which you can use conventional aircraft (i.e. C-130) to catch the remains or the deflated bag,” Pacheco said. “Another approach could be some kind of ‘harpoon’ or similar device which could make the balloon burst and at the same time hook the bag to a big parachute to lower the descent.”
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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C-390 Millennium User Group Shows Importance Of Collaboration
Aviation Week - Sponsored By Embraer July 31, 2023
For any new aircraft that challenges the status quo, or attempts to supersede an established platform, harnessing the shared experiences of a dedicated User Group is essential. It is from those shared experiences that a platform develops and improves; it is also from that experience that other users come to share and benefit from the operational performance and capabilities of their ‘new’ aircraft.
User Groups are an established and recognised pool of real-world expertise. The most successful platforms with the greatest operational longevity do not evolve by chance; they develop through shared mutual collaboration and support. It is for this very reason that the first ever C-390 Millennium User Group meeting was held at the Beja Air Base in Portugal in March, attended by those currently successfully operating or planning to operate the new aircraft.
Organised and hosted by the Portuguese Air Force (PAF), the group brought together air, ground and support crew from the Brazilian Air Force (BAF), Hungarian Air Force (HAF), the Austrian Air Force (AAF), the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) and the Czech Air Force (CAF). It included senior representatives from Embraer and its main partners and suppliers including Elbit-ELISRA (EW Suite supplier), Rheinmetall (Full Flight Mission Simulator supplier), IAE (part of Raytheon Technologies and the engine supplier) and Collins (also part of Raytheon Technologies supplying the avionics).
In creating a new User Group, the purpose is to establish a perennial network and a collaborative environment for all current and future C-390 Millennium operators. While it is important to share operational experience, it is also important to explore opportunities for closer international cooperation, to support one another with training, maintenance planning, spare parts and tools.
It is similarly critical to strengthen the bonds between those air forces choosing the C-390 as their Tactical Airlift solution, and those partners/suppliers who are developing new solutions for the already-mature military platform, which received its Full Operational Capabilities (FOC) certificate in the same week of the inaugural meeting.
Since the first meeting comprised primarily air forces from European and/or NATO Members Countries, there was a particular focus on the NATO equipment under final flight testing with the PAF, as well as other systems to be integrated in the C-390 in the future. This served to highlight the well-defined process for integration and certification, shortening the timelines and minimizing the effort required to provide equipment ready and approved for operational use.
The PAF hosts presented their vision for sustaining an ‘Aircraft of this Millennium’, which included a visit to KC-390 Training Center and a tour of its Ground Support Equipment (GSE) hangars to learn more about how it is delivering sustainable operations and support for the new aircraft.
The Brazilian Air Force presented the current operational capabilities of the KC-390 and its success across a number of missions over the last three and a half years. There are currently six aircraft being operated by the BAF, with more than 9,000 flight hours between them; one aircraft has surpassed 850 flight hours in one year.
The BAF also presented the Millennium’s critical role in responding to the COVID crisis bringing hope and practical relief to those most in need. It spoke of its role in various global crises which included delivering humanitarian support to Beirut to support the victims of a devastating explosion within the port; in Haiti to support the victims of a deadly earthquake; and helping in the repatriation of Brazilians and other nationals fleeing from the conflict in Ukraine.
A team from the Hungarian Air Force presented how it will operate the C-390 in a Medical Evacuation role, with Intensive Care Units (ICU) onboard; while The Royal Netherlands Air Force demonstrated how the Millennium meets its future Tactical Airlift requirements.
Embraer presented more detail around its FOC certification and highlighted possible future capabilities with a roadmap for NATO and Special Operations in line with evolving military requirements, along with the current and future support solutions and proposed multinational initiatives (NSPA[1]).
[1] NATO Support & Procurement Agency
The collaborative nature across the four days showed the dedication and passion from all involved in the C-390 Millennium Project since the beginning and established a platform from which future users can learn fast and respond under pressure.
With its new aircraft, Embraer has demonstrated a new generation of thinking, a multi-mission military transport aircraft with flexibility at its core which is setting a new standard in medium air mobility. It provides the perfect blend of mature and proven technology with state-of-the-art thinking to ensure the best of both worlds – reliability and performance. The User Group will boost even further the potential of the platform, leading to new developments and improvements being defined and giving guidance towards a common focus in prioritizing enhanced capabilities to meet the demands of a world in constant change. The strength of the Group itself will also grow as new air forces come to share their experiences.
The second C-390 Millennium User Group is already confirmed for 2024 and will be hosted by the Brazilian Air Force.
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Ukraine Gives U.S. Army Lessons On New Loitering Munition, Counter-UAS
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine August 07, 2023
A new U.S. Army effort to bring on loitering munitions for infantry brigade combat teams could select more than one version to take advantage of broader manufacturing capacity in a short term, the service’s top weapons buyer says.
The Army’s Program Executive Office-Soldier last month announced creation of the Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance (LASSO) program, an urgent acquisition plan to buy a man-portable, tube-launched, lethal payload system. It will include electro-optical/infrared sensor, precision flight control and the ability to track and engage non-line-of-sight targets.
Doug Bush, the Army’s assistant secretary for acquisition and logistics, says under LASSO the Army is taking a competitive approach initially based on existing systems, including those that have been sent to Ukraine. The Pentagon has delivered thousands of loitering munitions as part of drawdown packages, including AeroVironment Switchblades and AEVEX Corp. Phoenix Ghosts.
“But there’s a lot of companies in that space, so we’re going to leverage competition as well and maybe have more than one version so we can have more production capacity,” Bush told reporters Aug. 7.
The Army is also taking lessons from Ukraine on ways to proliferate counter-uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) approaches. The Army’s approach has largely focused on buying equipment that it has proven in the Middle East, and some of that has also been sent to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military has also innovated using low-cost equipment for counter UAS. One example is combining high-caliber machine guns and night vision equipment, which has been effective in downing smaller UAS when cued by a sensor. Electronic warfare approaches have also been effective in countering small UAS in Ukraine, “so we should learn from that,” Bush says.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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New Focus Needed On ‘Missile Defeat,’ U.S. Army Official Says
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine August 08, 2023
HUNTSVILLE, Alabama—The Pentagon needs a new way to coordinate and advocate for “missile defeat”—the ability to take out enemy missiles and launchers before launch—to reduce the requirement on active missile defenses, and U.S. Space Command should be in charge, the U.S. Army’s top missile defense official says.
While there is extensive focus on missile defense—the ability to detect, track and kill a long-range missile from launch—there is much less coordination on what is done “left of launch,” says Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commander of Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC). There needs to be a singular official in charge of how to deny, disrupt or destroy an enemy’s capability before launch, he said.
Karbler argues there needs to be an entity charged with coordinating across all combatant commands, other government agencies and international allies and partners to find the best way to target. For example, having a coordinator decide that a target could be taken out by U.S. Cyber Command or U.S. Special Operations Command, to say “we’ve got this challenge, let’s work together to get missile defeat ... [and] perhaps alleviate some of the demand on active defense interceptors,” he says.
SMDC practiced this approach recently as part of U.S. Space Command’s Space Sentry 2023 exercise, using a commander in charge of missile defeat to advocate for specific targets as part of the development process.
The exercise was a start, but the real work will be to identify processes and structures required across the Pentagon, other agencies and international partners, Karbler said during the Space & Missile Defense Symposium here.
The Unified Command Plan from 2019 that created U.S. Space Command also charged it with transregional missile defense, making it a natural fit to take on the role, Karbler argues. The Pentagon has also charged John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, with forming missile defeat policy, meaning there would be close coordination with Space Command on the issue, he says.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Turkey’s Drone Diplomacy Scores Saudi Success
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 10, 2023
Recent disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Turkey appeared to be long forgotten as the two countries signed an estimated $3 billion agreement on Aug. 7, paving the way for Turkey’s Baykar to produce its medium-altitude, long-endurance Akinci platform in Saudi Arabia, while fellow Turkish defense companies Aselsan and Roketsan will localize production of the Akinci’s sensors and weapons.
The arrangements among the three companies and Saudi industry follow agreements made in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in July in the presence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• Akinci production plans align with Riyadh’s Vision 2030
• Turkish drones could edge out Chinese-made systems
As well as a turning point in diplomatic relations between Ankara and Riyadh, the move also seems to confirm the rapid erosion of China’s once dominant market position in the region, which has been noted elsewhere. Saudi Arabia’s neighbors have also been investing in the Turkish systems, including Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have purchased the smaller Bayraktar TB2 platform.
Saudi Arabia has been among the biggest buyers of Chinese uncrewed aircraft system (UAS). But the adoption of the Akinci could lead to that platform unseating Chinese medium-¬altitude, long-endurance systems such as the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group Wing Loong family of UAS, 60 of which are in service, according to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s Military Fleet Discovery database.
Despite initial enthusiasm for Chinese systems, governments in the Middle East have been frustrated by the platforms’ unreliability, suppliers’ lack of maintenance support and their electro-¬optical systems’ poor fidelity—issues the Turkish platforms have managed to overcome.
Baykar will produce the Akinci with the growing conglomerate Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), while Aselsan and Roketsan will localize manufacture of their products for the Akinci with the Saudi National Company for Mechanical Systems (NCMS).
The value of the agreement and timelines for first UAS delivery have not been disclosed, and it remains unclear how many Akinci aircraft will be built in Saudi Arabia, but the deal is the “biggest export agreement in the history of the Republic [of Turkey] in defense and aviation,” Baykar’s CEO Haluk Bayraktar said. “A strong and strategic cooperation is taking place between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Our bond of friendship is getting stronger.”
SAMI officials said the agreement would enhance the company’s role in supporting the national defense industry and strengthening local capabilities. A graphic published by the group suggests that Saudi Arabia wants to achieve a 70% localization rate on the production of the Akinci, with manufacturing of the aircraft’s structure, assembly and flight testing taking place in-country. Saudi industry also wants to perform repairs and maintenance on the aircraft as well as integrate new sensors and payloads.
The agreement with Aselsan is likely to enable the local manufacture of electro-optical turrets and communication systems, while the agreement with Roketsan should enable production of the MAM-L and MAM-C small smart munitions, which have been widely used by other customers operating the Baykar family of UAS.
The efforts align with Salman’s ambition for Saudi Arabia—which has the fifth-largest defense budget in the world—to localize 50% of the country’s military spending with domestic industry by the end of the decade as part of his Vision 2030 effort to decrease the country’s economic dependence on oil.
Haluk Gorgun, president of Turkish defense industry agency SSB, said the new agreements “will add strength and momentum to the defense industry of both countries,” adding: “It is a great gain for our country to be able to contribute to the high technologies of our allies.”
Saudi Arabia’s adoption of Turkish drones comes just five years after the nadir in Turkish-Saudi relations due to differences over influence in other Muslim countries, the Qatari diplomatic crisis and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul.
Saudi Arabia is no stranger to Turkish-developed UAS. Intra Defense Technologies operated several Vestel (now Lentatek) Karayel tactical UAS for the Saudi military that were used over Yemen, and the company aimed to build and update the platform in-country before production plans were shelved.
In addition to the Akinci acquisition, Saudi Arabia likely will continue developing its own platforms to expand UAS capabilities for military and parapublic agencies performing defense and internal security missions.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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U.S. Air Force Aircraft Complete First Commercial Air Refueling
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble July 16, 2023
A privately owned Boeing KC-135R refueled two U.S. Air Force aircraft in late June, marking the service’s first air-to-air refueling from a commercial service provider.
The Metrea Strategic Mobility-owned tanker, which was acquired from the Republic of Singapore Air Force, offloaded nearly 90,000 lb. of fuel during 13 boom contacts with an RC-135 and E-3 during Exercise Resolute Hunter between June 23-29.
“We look forward to supporting more U.S. Air Force refueling requirements as well as increasing demand from allies and partners,” said Ty Thomas, head of Metrea’s Air and Space Group.
Naval Air Systems Command has purchased commercial air refueling services for more than two decades, starting with tanker derivatives of Boeing 707s and a McDonnell Douglas DC-10 owned by Omega Air Refueling. Metrea then entered the market as a competitor in 2021, and has provided hundreds of refueling contacts with Navy aircraft, including the first commercial boom refueling service to a Navy Boeing P-8 earlier this year.
But the U.S. Air Force has traditionally relied on Air Mobility Command (AMC)’s fleet of boom equipped tankers, including KC-135s, KC-10s and Boeing KC-46s.
Metrea is trying to expand the market by directly supporting operational units assigned to Air Combat Command and the Air Force’s regional commands around the world, Thomas told Aviation Week in an interview at the Royal International Air Tattoo.
AMC’s tanker fleet does not have the capacity to meet all requests by operational units for air refueling services, Thomas said. To illustrate the impact on operations, Thomas described a fictional example of six Lockheed Martin F-22s deploying from Virginia to Nevada for a Red Flag exercise. If AMC is unable to provide air refueling services, the aircraft fly across the country, making several stops on the ground for refueling instead. In some cases, technical faults develop during a cross-country flight that forces one or more aircraft to remain on the ground, waiting for an inspection or spare parts.
“Just because you don’t have a tanker to get you from Langley directly to Nellis, you don’t have a mission-ready F-22,” Thomas said.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Known V-22 Gearbox Problem Caused Fatal June 2022 Crash
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine July 21, 2023
The U.S. Marine Corps has since 2010 known of a critical safety issue on its V-22 Osprey fleet—a gearbox flaw that can cause the tiltrotor’s clutch to slip, severely impacting the safety of flight.
For years, the Corps says it has trained its crews to be aware of and work around the issue. While the Air Force grounded its V-22 fleet last year because of the issue, the USMC kept flying, saying it is confident in the safety of its aircraft.
On June 8, 2022, a hard clutch engagement (HCE) hit a V-22 as it flew over the deserts of Southern California, causing the Osprey to violently crash and killing all five on board. Despite USMC claims that its crews could work around the issue, an investigation released July 21 states there was nothing the expert pilots could do. They could not have known that the problem was going to happen, and they did not have time to react.
Aviation Week reporting shows the newly released investigation was one of at least four such gearbox problems that occurred in serious crashes of both Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force V-22s last year. While the new accident investigation board report into the June 2022 incident states the HCE was the primarily cause of that crash, an investigation into another 2022 fatal MV-22 crash in Norway states a gearbox problem did occur but blamed that mishap on pilot error.
For the U.S. Air Force, at least two proprotor gearbox problems forced down V-22s, according to information on the Class A mishaps by Aviation Week---incidents defined as causing at least $2.5 million in damage or severe injuries or deaths. One high-profile incident in August 2022 in Norway prompted the Air Force to stand down its operations. This came after another incident on May 17, 2022. Investigations into these incidents have not been released, and there were multiple other similar incidents, including another USAF CV-22 forced to land on July 8, 2022, and an MV-22B experienced an engine fire while landing in October 2022.
While the Air Force stood down operations and was the first to commit to retrofitting the input quill assemblies of its fleet, the Marine Corps and Navy kept flying after the June 2022 crash in California.
The mishap crew was from the “Purple Foxes” of Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 364 (VMM-364)---Capt. Nicholas P. Losapio, Capt. John J. Sax, Cpl. Nathan E. Carlson, Cpl. Seth D. Rasmuson and Lance Cpl. Evan A. Strickland.
According to the accident investigation board (AIB) report, the Osprey was one of two flying near Glamis, California, for a live-fire tail gun training mission from Camp Pendleton. After the third pass, the V-22 crew reported via radio it had “hot boxes,” meaning the aircraft’s gearboxes were running at a high temperature. The crew then climbed to a higher altitude to cool the gearboxes. After coming down for another weapons pass, the Osprey’s wingman lost visual of the V-22 during a turn because of the angle of bank. Seven seconds after the last radar contact, the V-22 crashed.
The AIB states the cause of the crash was a dual HCE, creating a single engine and interconnect drive system failure. This caused a “catastrophic loss of thrust” on the right proprotor, creating an unrecoverable departure from controlled flight.
“It is clear from the investigation that there was no error on the part of the pilots and aircrew and nothing they could have done to anticipate or prevent this mishap,” Headquarters Marine Corps says in a statement. “They were conducting routine flight operations in accordance with applicable regulations when this catastrophic and unanticipated mechanical failure occurred.”
In the statement the Marine Corps states it has since 2010 made “numerous actions associated with defining, mitigating or eliminating HCEs.”
In February, the V-22 Joint Program Office (PMA-275) announced the whole fleet would undergo input quill assembly (IQA) replacement even though the full root cause of the HCE has not been determined. The AIB report states IQAs are being replaced every 800 hours. Since then, there have been 22,258 flight hours with no reported HCE events.
“The completion of this investigation does not close the HCE effort within PMA-275,” says Col. Brian Taylor, PMA-275 program manager, in a statement. “The implemented IQA life limit, which reduced overall V-22 HCE risk by greater than 99 percent, was not a result of this investigation but is certainly reinforced by its findings.”
The HCE issue is one of 13 Category 1 deficiencies on the V-22 fleet, issues that are defined as possibly affecting safety of flight. The program office has declined to identify the other deficiencies.
After the grounding was first announced, Air Force Special Operations Command was the first command to look back at past V-22 mishaps to see if what is now understood about the HCE phenomena would have changed the findings. The Navy and Marine Corps followed suit. AFSOC said at the close of that investigation that what is known would not “materially” change---while HCEs could not completely be ruled out of some, it did not merit re-opening the investigations.
One of the most notable incidents was the April 2010 crash of an Air Force V-22 in Afghanistan that killed four and injured 16. The official account of the crash did not identify a main cause since key pieces of evidence, such as the flight data recorder and an entire engine, were missing. However, then-AIB president Brig. Gen. Donald Harvel wrote there was an “abnormal engine response” and the proprotor’s speed was low when it attempted a rolling landing. AFSOC at the time disagreed with the findings, and issued a statement blaming the pilots.
Harvel, who retired shortly after and died in 2020, wrote his account of the investigation in a book titled Rotors in the Sand. In a chapter called “My Unofficial Opinion of What Really Happened,” Harvel wrote that gearbox problems were likely a cause.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Eurofighter Typhoon Nations Progress Toward Upgrade Milestone
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne July 25, 2023
The four nations behind the Eurofighter Typhoon are putting together their wish lists for the latest upgrade to the combat aircraft.
But the glacial pace of decision-making as well as what appears to be missing critical ingredients could harm the Euro-canard’s chances in future export campaigns—particularly when compared against the more certain road map offered by the French Dassault Rafale.
• Phase 4 Enhancements package is due for service entry in 2028
• Eurofighter consortium is expecting 150-200 new orders
• UK is pressing ahead with integration of the new Striker 2 helmet
Work on systems definition for the so-called Phase 4 Enhancements (P4E) program got underway in June, UK Royal Air Force (RAF) officials say, and could thin out the numerous upgrade requests made by the four Eurofighter nations—Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. That thinning out may be essential: The wish list proposed by the nations is long, and the upgrade package that emerges is likely to be the most extensive yet for the aircraft. But such a package could also be challenged by the capacity of industry.
The UK’s priority is to prepare the aircraft for the third iteration of the Eurofighter’s active, electronically scanned array radar, the £2 billion ($2.6 billion) European Common Radar System (ECRS) Mk. 2. Radar 2, as it is commonly known, is due to fly in a test aircraft in early 2024 and would introduce significant changes to the human-machine interface of the Eurofighter, moving from a mode-based model of operation to a task-based management software that is designed to assist the pilot in the sensor’s use.
Germany wants to ensure that the Eurofighter is ready to take on the tasks performed by its Panavia Tornado fleet, a significant component of which is the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses mission previously performed by the electronic combat/reconnaissance (ECR) version of its Tornados. This will likely involve the integration of an emitter location system, the Saab Arexis electronic warfare suite—selected by the German military in June—and the Northrop Grumman Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile.
Germany and Spain are also looking for integration of the air-launched Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile, which is carried from both the Tornado and Spain’s Boeing EF-18 Hornets.
There are also plans for Praetorian defensive aids suite upgrades, including adding digital receivers as well as new signal processing algorithms and processor capabilities, that the four nations want to install. The countries want the capabilities added before the end of the decade—around 2028—with Germany’s need perhaps the most critical, as the Tornado needs to be retired.
Eurofighter CEO Giancarlo Mezzanatto said at the Paris Air Show in June that the partner nations had endorsed a 10-year road map for the aircraft’s development and that the P4E would demonstrate “how flexible the Eurofighter system is to include new capabilities and integrate new products.”
But the pace of Eurofighter upgrades has slowed, perhaps due in part to the different directions the partner nations have taken for their Future Combat Air Systems (FCAS). Germany and Spain are on one side, working with France on the European FCAS, while Italy and the UK are cooperating on the Global Combat Air Program. The two sides have different visions of how the Eurofighter needs to evolve to support their planned programs, and differ about how long they should keep the Eurofighter in service once the FCAS and GCAP have arrived (AW&ST Oct. 25-Nov. 7, 2021, p. 30).
Industry had hoped that by now it could start addressing the needs of the Eurofighter’s Long-Term Evolution (LTE) program, but this looks set to slip toward future upgrade phases P5E and P6E. “The farther you look into the future, the more open it is about what precisely LTE will entail,” Airbus Defense and Space CEO Michael Schoellhorn told Aviation Week ahead of the Paris Air Show (AW&ST June 5-18, p. 42). “There is growing clarity of what is going to be part of LTE, but there are also still some finalizing discussions that need to be had.”
BAE Systems has taken delivery of the first prototype Radar 2 and plans to integrate it into a Eurofighter for flight tests starting in 2024. Credit: Mark Wright/BAE Systems
In the UK, BAE Systems has been trying to accelerate some of the work it is bidding into the LTE program so it can be “ready for insertion by the customers at whatever appropriate point,” BAE Systems Business Development Director Anthony Gregory said at the company’s Warton, England, facility in July.
These efforts, known internally as Typhoon Tranche 5, include rearchitecting the aircraft’s complex mission system, enabling the use of off-the-shelf multicore computer processors. These processors, based on Intel Corp.’s Tiger Lake, could increase the aircraft’s computing power by 200 times in the first instance—and raise it further as more processing cores are added. The software is being made compliant with the UK’s Pyramid open-architecture standard as well as enabling the safety-critical and mission-critical software to split apart, making the aircraft more easily upgradable. The company is due to fly a Eurofighter with the multicore processors installed by year-end.
BAE is also considering technologies such as dynamic adaptive solid state power management systems, which can squeeze more electrical power from the aircraft’s Eurojet EJ200 engines.
Another challenge for the consortium is the speed at which nations can implement the upgrades. The RAF is arguably several years ahead in operationalizing the new capabilities. That includes the introduction of MBDA’s Brimstone missile, now also ordered by Spain, and the use of the MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles by British Typhoons operating in the Baltic region. The other partner nations are only now introducing the Meteor capability.
Mezzanatto said one of his objectives during his term as Eurofighter CEO was to align the customer fleets “as much as possible.” But he added that achieving that will be difficult given the differing national requirements. Indeed, the UK is preparing to go a step further in enhancing the aircraft by adding BAE Systems’ Striker 2 helmet-mounted display as part of a national upgrade for the aircraft.
Pilots will benefit from the helmet’s daylight-readable color display and integrated night vision when it reaches the fleet around 2027-28, Group Capt. Matt D’Aubyn, the RAF’s Typhoon program director, said at the Royal International Air Tattoo in July.
“[Striker 2] is an absolutely vital capability for Typhoon,” D’Aubyn said. “Yes, is it a piece of protective equipment, but we are also looking at this as an integral part of the aircraft’s weapon system.”
Questions remain as to whether the UK will integrate the MBDA-developed Spear 3 small cruise missile onto the Typhoon. It is already destined for the Lockheed Martin F-35. But RAF officials have not definitively said whether the weapon forms part of the plans for the Eurofighter, even though it has been tested on the aircraft and further tests are coming. This is despite significant international interest in the Spear 3 and the associated Spear-EW decoy development.
Here France could secure a lead, as it is looking at integrating a similar weapon—the Armement Air-sol du Future—for the Rafale as part of that aircraft’s F5 upgrade road map.
Despite these challenges, Mezzanatto said the consortium could secure 150-200 additional orders in the next two years, including top-up orders from existing customers as well as from new markets. “We are getting prepared and fully support our partner companies on the export market and in order to meet all these demands,” he said.
As previously reported by Aviation Week, Spain is interested in acquiring about 25 additional Eurofighters for its planned Halcon II fighter requirement to begin replacing the country’s EF-18C/Ds (AW&ST June 5-18, p. 42).
Other potential new buyers could include Egypt and Poland. Top-up orders could emerge from Oman and Qatar. Saudi Arabia is—at least for now—a less likely buyer, given Germany’s reluctance to support a sale there. BAE Systems is also leading a campaign to sell the aircraft to Turkey, but this depends on whether the U.S. approves deliveries of Block 70-model Lockheed Martin F-16s.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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USAF Tests Palletized Munition System In Pacific
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine July 24, 2023
The U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) has conducted a successful test of the Rapid Dragon pallet system as part of its massive exercise across the Pacific, as the command wants to include the system in all of its planning.
The command, when asked about the Rapid Dragon’s involvement in the Mobility Guardian 2023 exercise, said that it “in coordination with U.S. Indo-Pacific Command successfully conducted a palletized effects test.”
The Rapid Dragon system, initially developed by Air Force Special Operations Command and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), uses an air-dropped pallet to launch cruise missiles or other systems.
The system, first tested in 2021, originally focused on the Lockheed Martin Joint Air-to-Surface Missile (JASSM) though the service has expanded the system to other munitions and other systems, such as cargo-delivering drones. The system has completed three phases of testing: demonstration on the C-130 and C-17 with JASSM, command and control testing for retargeting, and validated deployment systems. The system is currently undergoing a phase of testing focused on high-altitude drop, jettison and deconfliction of “operationally relevant payloads and is working toward powered flight tests,” AFRL says.
AMC Commander Gen. Mike Minihan tells Aviation Week that he wants Rapid Dragon’s capability included in everything the command does, largely because of the dilemmas it could create for an enemy.
“Now the adversary has an infinitely higher problem to worry about. [They] don’t need to worry just about the bombers, [they] have to worry about this C-130 and every other C-130 on the planet,” Minihan says. “C-130s can do it. All of our partners and allies fly them, so you can give the adversary an infinite amount of dilemmas that they need to worry about.”
The system also works on C-17s, which are also flown by multiple other allies.
“I’m not saying they would do the same thing, I’m just telling you it’s an effect [that] has a lot of magnitude when you can do those things,” he says.
AMC would not specify where the test took place, just that it was conducted by U.S. forces. Mobility Guardian, which wrapped up July 21, took place at several locations across the Indo-Pacific ranging from Alaska to Australia, with hubs in Hawaii, Guam and Japan.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Sukhoi Reshapes The Su-75 Checkmate
Aviation Week - Piotr Butowski July 10, 2023
In late June, Russia’s Federal Service for Intellectual Property revealed a series of design patents submitted by the Sukhoi Design Bureau showing a new configuration for the Su-75 Checkmate light single-engine stealth fighter; the aircraft designation is not mentioned in the patents. The aircraft’s shape was patented in three versions: a single-seat fighter, two-seat combat trainer and an uncrewed aircraft.
The Su-75 Checkmate was displayed in a full-size mockup in 2021 and in a series of similar patents in 2022. In the new variant, the tail section of the fuselage is changed, the rear wing edge has enlarged flaperons, and the wing leading-edge root extensions are slightly longer. The outer wing panels previously were taken directly from the Su-57; now they have been modified.
• New design likely will delay the fighter’s first flight
• Changes might have been revealed at the MAKS air show
This confirms rumors about changes in the Su-75 design. Sukhoi probably intended to demonstrate the updated Checkmate at the MAKS 2023 air show planned for the end of July, but the show’s cancellation was announced on June 30.
The Sukhoi single-engine fighter was revealed two years ago at MAKS 2021 with the formal designation LTS (Lightweight Tactical Aircraft) and the nickname “Checkmate.” The number “75” painted on the side corresponded to Sukhoi’s internal code T-75, later designated as Su-75. The LTS-M presented at MAKS 2021 was a nonflying demonstrator intended for on-ground synchronization of construction components and equipment. The same aircraft was displayed at the Dubai Airshow in November 2021.
Rework Means Delay
The Sukhoi Design Bureau started detailed design of the Su-75 in early 2020, and the LTS-M demonstrator was completed by the Sukhoi KnAAZ plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in May 2021. The same plant is working on the next test aircraft, and future serial aircraft are planned to be produced there.
United Aircraft Corp. CEO Yury Slyusar says two test aircraft are under construction and four will be produced in all. It is unknown if he counted the LTS-M mockup in his total.
The new aircraft are being produced according to the revised design. Slyusar says the use of supercomputers for design sped up development. Compared with classic experiment-based development, supercomputer simulation enables a more rational design in less time and at a much lower cost. Sukhoi says the Su-75 is its first aircraft fully designed on supercomputers.
A significant change in the aerodynamic configuration after the LTS-M mockup was built is likely to delay the program. Even if that adds time, redoing the aircraft at the design stage is more efficient than doing so after several years of flight tests—which is what happened with the Su-27 and Su-57 fighters. Sukhoi intended to conduct full trials on five Su-57 aircraft made in 2010-13. However, after problems with insufficient structural strength became apparent in 2016-17, the design was revised to strengthen the airframe, and another five test aircraft had to be built.
Russian officials do not appear to be in agreement about the timing of the Checkmate program, probably because the company is developing the platform without external procurement and funding and so without imposed deadlines.
During the first aircraft presentation for Russian President Vladimir Putin at MAKS 2021, reports stated that the fighter would make its first flight in 2023. A preproduction batch was to be completed in 2026, and full-scale serial production was to start a year later.
A few months later in Dubai, Slyusar said the corporation intended to accelerate the project and “to start series production in late 2025,” Aviation Week reported at the time (AW&ST Nov. 22-Dec. 5, 2021, p. 18).
On May 18, 2022, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec Corp. (which includes United Aircraft Corp. and Sukhoi), reported to Putin that the first flight-test aircraft would be completed at the turn of 2023-24, and series production would begin in 2027.
A month later, on June 17, Yuri Borisov, then-Russian deputy prime minister and responsible for the defense industry, said the first flight of the Su-75 was scheduled for 2025. That August, during the Army 2022 exhibition, Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov gave the date 2024 for the start of Su-75 trials.
No Customer
A delay to the Su-75 Checkmate program is not critical because no one is waiting for it anyway. Its greatest challenge is the lack of a firm customer. In July 2021, Chemezov admitted that the fighter is being produced at the company’s own risk, without any orders. A 2021 Checkmate advertising video featured “pilots” from Argentina, India, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam, signaling Russia’s intended markets.
Russian announcements about possible Su-75 customers have been vague. At the IDEX defense exhibition in Abu Dhabi in February 2017, Russia and the United Arab Emirates signed an agreement to cooperate in the next-generation light fighter project—that was the stimulus that directly pushed the Russians to initiate the Su-75 project. The cooperation never progressed, despite subsequent declarations that it was still valid.
In Dubai in November 2021, a representative of the Russian arms trade service said: “A number of customers have shown heightened interest in this aircraft.” But no specifics followed.
During the February 2023 Aero India air show, the Tass news agency reported that the Russian delegation was discussing possible cooperation with India in the Checkmate project and that the aircraft would be presented at the show. But the aircraft was not displayed there, and it was not mentioned after the show.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting geopolitical disruptions significantly limited the number of countries willing to buy Russian military equipment. The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) likely would be the first customer for the Su-75. The VKS, with the Su-30SM, Su-35S, Su-57 and MiG-35S multirole fighters and heavy Su-34 fighter-bomber in current production, is not interested in buying another tactical combat aircraft. But the VKS would buy the Su-75 if the political authorities deem it necessary to keep the project alive and support its export.
The Su-75 Checkmate is a single-engine new-generation fighter, which the Russians intended to make at low cost using ready-made components, mostly from the Su-57 fighter—including the same AL-41F-1 engine, as well as much of its systems, avionics and weapons.
Slyusar says the Checkmate will be offered at $30-35 million, while its cost per flight hour is expected to be “six or seven times” less than the Lockheed Martin F-35’s. The Su-75 Checkmate is designed to fly at Mach 1.8 to a range of 2,800 km (1,740 mi.) with internal fuel. Its maximum takeoff weight is 26,000 kg (57,320 lb.) including 7,400 kg of weapons and stores.
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Piotr Butowski
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Embraer Eyes European Market For KC-390 And Super Tucano Sales
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne July 10, 2023
RAF FAIRFORD, England—Embraer is looking to grab a slice of Europe’s defense modernization pie with sales of the C-390 airlifter and A-29 Super Tucano.
Previously, the Brazilian OEM’s European market presence was limited to sales of its Tucano basic trainer, its Xingu light transport and the AMX light-combat aircraft that was developed with Italy during the 1980s.
Today, however, the company is making new inroads into the region.
Portugal soon will take formal delivery of the first of five C-390 Millenium airlifters, while the Netherlands is expected by year-end to sign contracts for a planned fleet of five aircraft.
The C-390 also is being purchased by Hungary with Budapest’s first aircraft in final assembly and interest growing from other European nations including Austria, the Czech Republic and Sweden.
Most of these nations want to use the C-390 to replace the elderly Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules that dominates Europe’s airlift scene.
At the same time, Embraer also is developing what it calls a NATO configuration of the A-29 Super Tucano specifically aimed at European customers, with development work to be conducted in Portugal.
“I have a clear strategy to internationalize Embraer Defense and Security and make the company even more of an international player,” Bosco da Costa Junior, Embraer Defense & Security’s president and CEO, told Aviation Week’s Show News at the recent Paris Air Show.
Nations have been attracted to the C-390 because it is the only airlifter developed in the 21st century, he notes, adding the Brazilian Air Force is seeing availability and dispatch reliability figures more akin to that in the commercial world.
“We are confident the C-390 and A-29 can play an important role, especially here in Europe,” he says.
Portugal has provided a useful test case for the C-390’s introduction into Europe, with Embraer installing what it calls a NATO operations package, which includes a Link 16 datalink, military satellite navigation system, new transponders and encrypted radios.
Similar equipment is set to be installed on Hungary’s two aircraft and envisioned for the Netherlands’ five. Portugal also has recently flown its first KC-390 equipped with an Elbit-developed electronic-warfare pod on the outer wing pylons.
Embraer is predicting a market of around 690 airlifters worldwide.
Company officials are not expecting large orders for the Super Tucano in Europe, but they believe the platform could offer a useful capability for smaller air forces as the aircraft can be used for both training and light attack. Currently, Switzerland’s Pilatus dominates the European turboprop trainer market, but types like its PC-21 cannot be used for the light-attack mission, limiting them to the training role. The Super Tucano therefore could be attractive as a multi-role platform.
Portugal is likely to be an early customer for the Super Tucano, having identified a need for a close-air-support platform in its new military programming law approved in March.
Other potential missions identified for the Super Tucano in Europe include Joint Terminal Attack Controller training, providing a lower-cost platform compared to fast jets.
Embraer also is supporting negotiations between the Brazilian Air Force and Saab on a future batch of Gripen E fighters on top of its existing order for 36.
Brazil will assemble 15 of the 36 F-39E/F Gripen fighters ordered by its air force so far but is proposing to secure more workshare on the aircraft to help reduce unit cost, potentially with domestic production of components such as harnesses or landing gear, da Costa Junior says. “Increasing the content of Embraer Defense and Security in the in the Gripen for Brazil, could help drive Saab to deliver a better proposal,” he suggests.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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China Biggest Driver Of U.S. Defense Spending Surge: TD Cowen
Aviation Week - Matthew Fulco July 10, 2023
Concerns about China are driving a projected surge in U.S. defense spending over the next four years, both in conventional and nuclear weapons, according to a recent report by investment bank TD Cowen.
TD Cowen estimates that the Pentagon’s spending on a group of roughly 30 major weapons and munitions is set to jump 22% from fiscal 2024 to 2028, “a significant increase from prior plans.” The Pentagon’s fiscal 2024 budget included an $11.1 billion increase through fiscal 2027 compared to a year earlier across the 30 main programs that TD Cowen tracks, with $10.7 billion allotted for conventional munitions.
Within that spending hike, TD Cowen expects solid, near-term growth for conventional munitions but more sustained growth for atomic weapons as part of the Nuclear Triad Modernization.
In both cases, China is the U.S. Defense Department’s primary long-term consideration, though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driving some specific spending in the short term. “Ukraine-type weapons ... should benefit from funds appropriated by Congress over the last year for DOD refill and from foreign military sales to NATO countries,” TD Cowen said. These include Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies’ Javelin anti-tank missiles, Lockheed’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), Raytheon’s Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and General Dynamics’ 155mm rounds.
In the long term, Northrop Grumman programs are likely to grow the most on the back of nuclear modernization and rocket motors, with Lockheed right behind, buoyed by demand for both its conventional and nuclear programs.
In December 2022, the Pentagon unveiled the Northrop-built B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the first new U.S. bomber aircraft in more than three decades. The Air Force plans to buy at least 100 of the $700 million aircraft, which can deploy either nuclear or conventional munitions.
“Even the most sophisticated air defense systems will struggle to detect the B-21 in the sky,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in December.
Including the B-21 and its classified space programs, Northrop “arguably is the fastest-growing prime through the late decade, with a ramp to 6% growth expected by 2025 and somewhat more in out years,” TD Cowen said.
China’s answer to the B-21, the Xian H-20, is being manufactured by the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and is expected to be rolled out at some point this decade. The H-20 may have a global range of 10,000 km (6,200 mi.), according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
The H-20 is part of a broader, accelerated push by Beijing to modernize its nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon estimates that China plans to nearly quadruple its nuclear warheads from 400 to 1,500 by 2035.
China’s current nuclear-capable bomber is the H-6N, which has a range of 1,800 km and recessed fuselage modifications that allow it to carry air-launched nuclear missiles.
It is unclear why China, a state with a longstanding no-nuclear-first-strike policy, is doubling down on boosting its nuclear arsenal—especially when the conventional capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) are sufficient to make U.S. intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict a costly endeavor for Washington. The opacity of China’s authoritarian political system and lack of candid dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese militaries add to the challenges of deciphering Beijing’s nuclear weapons program objectives.
After President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last November in Indonesia, the White House issued a statement that said the two men “reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Taiwan figures prominently in growing demand for Raytheon’s Standard Missile Six (SM-6), Naval Strike Missiles, and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM). “Raytheon’s portfolio has implications for Taiwan scenarios, and increased production and stockpiling could be part of a U.S.-Quad-Taiwan stockpiling and deterrence scenario,” TD Cowen said, with “Quad” referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that includes the U.S., Japan, Australia and India.
Looking ahead, TD Cowen notes that the Pentagon wants contractors to add missile and munitions capacity, but they are hesitant to do so without assurances of sustained demand that would allow them to recover capital costs.
Cognizant of this issue, the Pentagon “appears willing to consider multiyear buys,” the investment bank said, adding that it expects production to ramp up in 2024-25 and continue at an elevated level for several years thereafter “to achieve the inventory levels DOD wants to both replenish Ukraine and refill its own stockpile.”
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Matthew Fulco is Business Editor for Aviation Week, focusing on commercial aerospace and defense.
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Bastille Day Flyovers Symbolize Strengthening Franco-Indian Ties
Aviation Week - Helen Chachaty July 11, 2023
PARIS—India’s close ties with France will be marked as part of Bastille Day celebrations on July 14.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is paying his third visit to France since the election of French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017. As a sign of Franco-Indian friendship, three Rafales from the Indian Air Force accompanied by a Rafale from the French Air Force will fly over the Champs-Élysées, just after the traditional opening of the Bastille Day air parade by the Patrouille de France.
But French leaders also are hoping industry will have something to celebrate as well. India finally appears to be on the cusp of selecting a new combat aircraft for the country’s aircraft carriers. The naval version of the Dassault Rafale appears to have the upper hand over the U.S. Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet.
Media reports in India suggest the country’s defense procurement board has approved a purchase of the Rafale, but this is yet to be confirmed.
Regarding the potential contract for 26 aircraft for the Indian Navy, a presidential source says "negotiations are still underway." Whether an announcement will be made this week or not is unclear.
Should the Rafale win the competition, the announcement could instead be made in India, possibly during a high-level visit. Dassault CEO Eric Trappier told senators during a hearing in May that he is "also expecting announcements from our Indian friends," but added, “We need to be patient with India."
France and India will celebrate 25 years of their strategic partnership, signed in 1998, a diplomatic relationship "at the highest level and dense," but also "one of France's leading export markets," the French defense ministry says.
According to data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is France's leading customer, receiving 30% of French armament exports over the 2018-22 period. Moreover, India is the largest importer of major arms over the period 2018-22 with an 11% share of global arms imports. France is India's second largest supplier with a 29% share of India's total imports; Russia is first with a 45% share.
Industrial cooperation between France and India stepped up in 2016, following the announcement of India's purchase of 36 Rafales.
The contract came with an offset clause, in accordance with the Indian government's "Make in India" strategy intended to forge partnerships and develop its own industrial fabric.
In 2017, Dassault Aviation and the Reliance Group set up the joint venture DRAL (Dassault Reliance Aerospace Ltd.) and built a factory in Nagpur, India, to assemble Falcon 2000s and produce Rafale components. Dassault's objective is to "lay the foundations of a national industrial ecosystem in the defense aeronautics field" in India, bringing together a network of Indian micro-companies and SMEs that integrate the supply chain of Dassault and its partners.
Dassault Group also set up a dedicated Indian engineering unit in 2018—Dassault Aircraft Services India-Engineering Center (DASI EC). Located in Pune, DASI EC steers Dassault Aviation's engineering activity in India for both civil and military aircraft, according to an internal document.
Dassault also is involved in training through the Dassault Skill Academy. The first students in the Aeronautical Structure & Equipment Fitter vocational program graduated in 2022, and more are in training. French teachers will be replaced by Indian ones in mid-2024. Dassault also plans to prepare future educators involved in the roll-out to other vocational high schools.
Since becoming Dassault Aviation's first export customer, India has acquired 450 aircraft of six different types since 1953: Ouragan, Mystère IV, Alizé, Jaguar, Mirage 2000 and Rafale.
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Helen Chachaty
Based in Paris, Helen has specialized in defense and aerospace journalism since 2011. She covers French and European defense programs and industrie
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Factors In Ice-Induced Hard Landings, Part 1
Aviation Week - Roger Cox June 21, 2023
A charter crew approached Paris Le Bourget Airport in their Embraer EMB-500 Phenom 100 on the morning of Feb. 8, 2021. The wing and stabilizer de-icing system was not turned on when they passed through a layer of freezing clouds on final approach, and at 50 ft. above the runway, the airplane stalled. It descended rapidly and the recorders, FDR and CVR stopped when the airplane struck the runway. That happens when the G-load exceeds 5gs.
The crew did not forget to turn on the “Wingstab” de-icing system; they made a conscious decision to leave it off. Other Phenom pilots before them had made the same decision in similar circumstances, with the same results. One such accident took place in Germany in 2013 and another took place in the U.S. in 2014.
After those accidents, both the German BFU and the American NTSB made recommendations to prevent such accidents, but they weren’t entirely successful. The French Bureau d’Enquetes et d’Analyses (BEA) analyzed the Paris accident and came up with an additional insight that might be more helpful.
The accident flight departed Venice, Italy, at 0917 Paris local time and climbed to FL 340. The charter flight carried a two-pilot crew and one passenger. The co-pilot was the pilot flying. While enroute, the crew discussed the possibility of snow and a contaminated runway at Le Bourget and they tested the anti-icing system to ensure it was working. About 45 min. before landing, and before listening to the terminal information broadcast (ATIS), they briefed the normal clean-wing approach speeds. Those speeds were 97 kt. Vref, 102 kt. VAC (approach climb speed), and 121 kt. for VFS (final segment speed).
When they listened to the ATIS, it reported that the temperature was -1C (30F) and the dew point -3C and that there was severe icing between 3,000 ft. and 5,000 ft. The captain discounted this information, saying there was no snow and that icing was common near Le Bourget. The crew briefed the ILS approach to runway 27, planning to use full flaps and autopilot engaged. They did not consider any changes to the approach speeds.
Ten minutes before landing, the crew turned on the engine anti-icing and windshield demist/de-icing systems. As they intercepted the localizer, the crew activated the Wingstab de-icing system. Only 21 sec. later, after observing ice breaking off the wings, they turned that system off. They intercepted the glide slope, switched to the tower and were cleared to land on runway 27. They ran the before-landing checklist, and the captain turned off the engine anti-icing system.
The captain later stated that the cloud layer began just below 5,000 ft. and ended at 2,000 ft., and there was another thin layer at 1,500 ft. He did not see ice forming on the wing after he turned off the de-icing system.
At 300 ft. above the approach end of the runway, the airplane was stabilized at 100 kt. IAS and the autopilot was disengaged. Then the airplane began slowing and sinking, with the airspeed falling to 90 kt. and the angle-of-attack (AOA) increasing to 28 deg. The wings began to rock and the sink rate increased to 960 fpm. The captain, saying the airplane was too high on the glide slope, took control. The “STALL STALL” aural warning sounded and the captain attempted to advance power for a go-around. The airplane stalled in a 10-deg. right bank and landed hard.
The airplane came down only 33 ft. past the runway 27 displaced threshold and slid 3,445 ft. before veering off the left side of the runway and pivoting around to a heading of 160 deg. The nose gear broke off and the right main landing gear penetrated the right wing and the right fuel tank. A fire broke out near the wing root, but the occupants were able to safely evacuate the burning airplane. Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting Service (ARFF) responded and doused the fire.
Following: Part 2: Clues to why the Phenom crashed.
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Roger Cox
A former military, corporate and airline pilot, Roger Cox was also a senior investigator at the NTSB. He writes about aviation safety issues.
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Rafael Reveals New Air-to-Air Missile, Seeks Foreign Partner
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble June 22, 2023
LE BOURGET—Israel’s state-owned arms-maker Rafael revealed a new long-range, air-to-air missile at the Paris Air Show and launched the public phase of a campaign to find a foreign partner to help pay for a five-year development program.
A model of the Sky Spear missile on display at Rafael’s exhibit stand proposes major changes in design and performance compared to the 60-year legacy of Israeli’s standard air-to-air missile family, which includes Rafael’s infrared-guided Python series and radar-homing Derby series.
The Sky Spear has been designed to exceed the range of the I-Derby Extended Range (ER), said Yaniv Rotem, director of business development and marketing for Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
The additional range is provided by a combination of extra kinematic power and aerodynamic lift, Rotem said. A three-pulse motor powers the missile instead of the dual-pulse propulsion system in the I-Derby ER. Although the Sky Spear is 20 mm wider than the Derby series, with a 180-mm dia., Rafael reduced the area of the new missile’s three sets of control surfaces to reduce drag.
Another key change is an advanced radio frequency (RF) seeker that can acquire targets at significantly longer ranges than the I-Derby ER.
“I tell people we actually squeezed an F-16 radar into a seeker,” Rotem said. “Its abilities are just tremendous.”
Asked to comment on whether the seeker is multi-band, Rotem replied: “I cannot get into that.”
The RF seeker includes advanced electronic counter-countermeasure features, Rotem added, which enables the missiles to avoid being defeated by an enemy’s airborne and ground-based jamming systems.
“The only thing we can say is ... we proved the capability of this design against a lot of kinds of jammers—different types—working simultaneously,” Rotem said.
The Sky Spear concept emerges as global militaries seek to dramatically extend the range of air-to-air missiles—a trend the MBDA Meteor established more than a decade ago. China followed suit by unveiling the PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile in the last decade. The U.S. responded in 2017 by awarding a contract to Lockheed Martin to deliver the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile.
The Israeli Air Force wants to adopt the Sky Spear, Rotem said, but Rafael is searching for international partners to secure the funding to complete certification. Israel prefers to reach a government-to-government agreement rather than directly with an industry partner, he added.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington.
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Wagner Forces Shoot Down Russian Airborne Command Post Inside Russia
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne June 26, 2023
Imagery published on social media has confirmed that a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post platform was among several military aircraft shot down inside Russia in an apparent attempted coup by the Wagner Private Military Co.
Wagner-operated air defenses brought down the four-engine turboprop on June 24 near the city of Voronezh in southwestern Russia as the paramilitary group’s forces made an advance toward Moscow in what President Vladimir Putin described as an “internal betrayal” of the Russian people. All 10 crew on the Il-22 were killed.
Wagner forces also bought down several Mil Mil-8/17 transport helicopters, including: a specialized electronic warfare version; a Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter; and a Mil Mi-35 attack helicopter being used to to stave off Wagner’s advance.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s owner, triggered the rebellion, aiming his ire at the head of the Russian military, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Prigozhin publicly blamed the two men for the conflict in Ukraine which has seen thousands of Wagner personnel killed. In a video published online on June 23, he said justification for the war in Ukraine was a lie, and just an excuse for "a small group of scumbags" to promote themselves and deceive both the public and Putin.
Hours later, Wagner forces seized the city of Rostov-on-Don and then launched what Prigozhin called a “march for justice” toward Moscow, during which the aircraft and helicopters were engaged. Later that day, he halted the advance 200 mi. short of the Russian capital, agreeing to an undisclosed deal apparently brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. The agreement calls for Prigozhin to exile himself in Belarus. Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the events of June 25 had been a “direct challenge to [President] Putin’s authority,” and suggested there were “real cracks” in Putin’s rule.
The loss of the Il-22M—a military conversion of the Il-18 airliner—represents a significant loss in the Russian Air Force’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance fleet. It is the second such loss in five years. Back in September 2018, an Il-20—an electronic intelligence version of the Il-18—was shot down accidentally by Syrian air defenses as it returned from a patrol flight over the Mediterranean Sea.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Ukraine Claims It Downed More Kinzhals; Russia Says It Hit Patriot
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine May 16, 2023
Ukraine on May 16 again claimed it had downed a round of Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, as U.S. and Ukrainian officials are rebuffing a Russian claim that it had destroyed a Patriot air defense system.
The Ukrainian Air Force in a statement said it downed six Kinzhal missiles, along with nine Kalibr cruise missiles, three other ground-launched missiles and drones. It marked the second time in 10 days that Ukraine has announced it had downed Kinzhal missiles.
In a statement, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Russia on May 16 launched a total of 27 missiles and 37 air strikes across the country.
Russia’s defense ministry in a May 16 video statement claimed the Patriot system was destroyed in Kyiv as part of the strikes. A U.S. official told CNN the system was possibly damaged, and it was still to be determined if it could be repaired on the spot or pulled from the country to be repaired. Throughout the full-scale invasion, Russia has made several disputed claims that it damaged or destroyed Western-provided systems.
During a White House briefing, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he could not confirm the reports, but “it would depend on the scope of the damage as to whether or not it could be repaired by Ukrainians.”
Other systems, such as U.S.-provided Howitzers, could be repaired within Ukraine with U.S. help, he said.
“If there was damage done to the Patriot system that needed to be repaired, we would certainly assist with that,” Kirby says.
Ukraine has received two Patriot systems so far, with other batteries expected to be delivered in the coming months.
On May 6, the head of Ukraine’s Air Force said in a social media post that a Patriot interceptor downed an air-launched Kinzhal two days earlier. The Kinzhal was launched from a Mikoyan MiG-31K from inside Russian territory, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk said in a Telegram post.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Structural Integrity Factors Can Cause Premature Failure, Part 1
Aviation Week - Patrick Veillette, Ph.D. May 15, 2023
“We’re going to teach you how to turn and burn” were the exact words used by the founder and president of Aviation Safety Training, a company specialized in upset recovery training. The decorated Vietnam War veteran fighter pilot promised to immunize the pilots at my employer against loss-of-control accidents after completing his two-day training curriculum.
The sales pitch included descriptions of how to “yank and bank” and use large deflections of the rudder to roll the aircraft during recoveries from extreme, unusual attitudes. To an audience of pilots, this sounded like a lot of adrenalin-pumping fun.
At the conclusion of the sales presentation, the owner of Aviation Safety Training offered me a demonstration ride, hoping that I would write a full-length article hyping this training. Even though this could have been an article with plenty of eye-grabbing pictures, I declined for many reasons. First, the sales presentation did not provide independent evidence of the efficacy of this training. Second, his explanations on the uses of the rudder for upset recovery were contrary to the NTSB’s findings during the investigation of the American Airlines Flight 587 accident on Nov. 12, 2001. Third, I had grave concerns about the structural integrity of the aircraft used in such maneuvers, especially considering the NTSB findings of several closely related accidents.
The timing of the sales pitch was not long after the NTSB issued its findings about a fatal accident over Rydal, Georgia on April 19, 1999. The aircraft involved was a T-34A “Mentor” operated by Sky Warriors Flight Training.
During the simulated combat flight, the safety pilot instructed the client to turn harder and to bury the nose. While following the safety pilot’s instructions, the right-wing assembly separated from the airframe. The main airplane wreckage fell to the ground along the edge of a wooded area of a subdivision. The right-wing assembly was located approximately one-half mi. north of the main wreckage. Examination of the wreckage disclosed fatigue cracking in the spar material in the vicinity of wing spar fracture face.
The NTSB determined that the probable cause was the fracture of the wing spar as a result of fatigue cracking that occurred over an unknown number of flights and flight hours, with a wing-loading spectrum not anticipated during design of the airplane.
What is Loading Spectrum?
“Loading spectrum” is a formal engineering analysis of the structural loads that an aircraft is likely to experience from maneuvering and atmospheric turbulence during its lifetime. Structural engineering specialists use this information to predict the safe lifespan of an aircraft’s structure.
The Loading Spectrum will vary significantly based on an aircraft’s predicted usage. For instance, the standard for a mid-range transport might assume an average flight length of 2.5 hr., flying at an average altitude of 38,000 ft., and performing three flights in an average day. While cruising at 38,000 ft., based on historical trend data, it would encounter moderate atmospheric turbulence for a small portion of its cruising duration on some of those flights.
The engineers would also formulate a prediction of the number of pressurizations cycles on the fuselage and the amount of stress placed on the wings from atmospheric turbulence. A number of other important assumptions are made in these predictions, such as the average temperature, atmospheric humidity and salinity. All of these are critical factors that influence the growth of cracks.
Cracks may grow to catastrophic lengths prior to the component being removed from service when aircraft are used in a manner that falls outside of the original loading spectrum. The prime example of this was the Aloha Airlines Flight 243 accident on April 28, 1988, in which a portion of the fuselage shell failed catastrophically in flight.
These accidents should have raised elevated concerns among operators who provide upset recovery training, as well as any other aircraft operator who uses their aircraft in a manner that doesn’t fall within the original design criteria.
Asymmetric Loading
A second important point that continues to be poorly understood is the additional stress that occurs on an airframe when a pilot’s control inputs create asymmetric G loads. The original design G-load limits of the T-34 series of aircraft were 6.0 and -3.0. At face value, this would give pilots the impression that this was a tough airplane that could withstand plenty of G loading. But that is an overly simplified understanding of structural integrity.
Changing bank angle while simultaneously changing the G load creates a differential in the loading of one wing (or one stabilizer) relative to the other. The ascending wing is experiencing a higher load factor than the descending wing. This, in turn, applies a twisting force on the attach points that will be much more powerful than if the G load is applied symmetrically on the airframe. The G limits reduce to +4 / -2 Gs for “rolling” maneuvers.
In Part 2 of this article, we discuss the danger of operating outside of an aircraft’s G load limitations.
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Patrick Veillette, Ph.D.
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Structural Integrity Factors Can Cause Premature Failure, Part 2
Aviation Week - Patrick Veillette, Ph.D. May 17, 2023
The certification standards under Federal Aviation Regulation 23.349 (2)(b) specify an airplane’s asymmetrical flight G limit for any given weight to be two-thirds of the symmetric G load. Incidentally, since the symmetric load factor limits in most business jets are relatively low, this fact brings into question many of the standard upset recovery techniques, especially those that induce asymmetric loads.
This provides the setting for some of the serious concerns that weren’t adequately addressed when I was offered a chance to visit Aviation Safety Training for a demonstration flight. The timeframe of the sales pitch was mid-2003.
On Nov. 19, 2003, two Beech A45s operated by Aviation Safety Training took off for their training session. According to the pilot-rated passenger of the second airplane in the formation: “The briefing included the pertinent radio and formation information for a flight of two, to and from the practice area. [T]he pre-flight brief did not include air combat maneuvers, as I remember it.”
After the upset recovery training was completed, the pilot in command of the sister aircraft suggested that they engage in a simulated air combat demonstration. The flight leader agreed.
It is significant to note that all Beech A45s were operating under an FAA airworthiness directive (AD) that included significant limitations on the load factors and airspeeds. On July 9, 1999, the FAA issued AD 99-12-02 mandating flight and operating limitations on all Beech A45s (T-34s), which prohibited operations in acrobatic and utility categories, limited the flight load to 2.5 G; and limited the maximum airspeed to 175 mph.
A former customer of the operator had flown in the accident airplane in May 2001. He recalled that during the flight, the instructor pilot told him that they had pulled about positive 6 G.
The two aircraft made several turns as the airspeed continually decreased. After two or three turns, one of the Beech A45s was in a climbing right turn when the right wing separated from the airframe. The airplane spun uncontrolled to the ground, killing both occupants. The right wing was found approximately one-half mi. north of the main wreckage. Examination of the separated wing revealed extensive fatigue cracking in both forward and aft wing spars.
The NTSB determined that the upset recovery training provider failed to comply with applicable airworthiness directives, which required wing spar inspections, continued operating the aircraft beyond the compliance time extension granted by an approved alternate means of compliance. Another causal factor was the operation of the aircraft outside of its flight G load limitations.
Undetected Widespread Fatigue Cracking
Tragedy befell that same operator a little more than a year later. A sister aircraft was maneuvering during upset recovery training over Montgomery, Texas on Dec. 7, 2004.
A review of an onboard video revealed that the instructor and student were performing training maneuvers that included steep turns, stalls, accelerated stalls, unusual attitudes and recoveries from these to a wings-level attitude using several techniques. While in a steep nose- down attitude (no sky visible in the view), the instructor told the student to “pull it into a stall right now.” At that moment, the recording ended.
The main wreckage came to rest on the side of a hard-surface gravel road and the left wing, left horizontal stabilizer, inboard section of left elevator, aft canopy frame and a portion of the left-wing skin were found in a wooded area approximately 0.4 mi. southwest of the main wreckage.
Examination of the wing and carry-through structure revealed the structure failed as the result of extensive and widespread fatigue cracking. The cracks in the channels were in hidden areas and probably could not have been directly detected without extensive disassembly of the structure. However, the cracks in the webs could have been easily detected, and the crack in the forward web apparently was detected, based on the stop-drilled hole and notes in the maintenance records.
The NTSB determined the inflight separation of the left wing was a result of extensive fatigue cracking throughout the wing carry-through structure.
Analysis of accelerator data from firefighting aircraft discovered numerous exceedances of airplane maximum-G operating limitations, as we discuss in Part 3.
Structural Integrity Factors Can Cause Premature Failure, Part 1: https://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/safety-ops-regulation/struct…
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Patrick Veillette, Ph.D.
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Embraer, Saab Deepen Ties On C-390, Gripen, Future Fighters
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble April 11, 2023
RIO DE JANEIRO — Embraer and Saab agreed on April 11 to jointly offer the C-390 Millennium to the Swedish air force and possibly other countries, discuss options for integrating Saab technologies on the Brazilian airlifter and collaborate on future fighter technologies.
The memorandum of understanding announced at the LAAD Defense and Security convention here marks the first time the industrial partners have agreed to collaborate on the C-390 and fighter technologies beyond the 36 F-39 Gripens currently ordered by the Brazilian air force.
“I am sure that the two companies together can further grow their business in various markets around the world,” said Bosco da Costa Jr., CEO of Embraer Defense and Security.
The agreement comes as Sweden reportedly threw out a plan to buy four Lockheed Martin C-130Js from the Italian air force, leaving the air force to reassess options for replacing an aging fleet of C-130Hs.
Saab now will offer the C-390 to the Swedish air force as the C-130H replacement, Saab CEO Micael Johansson told reporters during a LAAD news conference. The agreement also would cover any Saab technologies that need to be integrated into the C-390 to meet the Swedish air force’s requirements.
The companies also plan to broaden their decade-old partnership on delivering Gripen fighters to the Brazilian air force. Embraer already is assembling 15 of the single-seat F-39Es in Gaviao Peixoto, Brazil, and assisted with the design of the two-seat F-39F.
Saab confirmed plans to assemble any F-39 orders by other Latin American countries at Embraer’s facility in Gaviao Peixoto. Johansson named Colombia and Peru as near-term sales prospects for the Gripen in the region. Peru is looking for a replacement for aging Mikoyan MiG-29s. Colombia, meanwhile, selected the Dassault Rafale at the end of last year, but failed to finalize a contract before the budget authorization for the program expired.
“I look forward to when they start the process again,” Johansson said.
But Saab and Embraer’s partnership on fighter technology now may endure beyond the Gripen. Last June, Sweden’s military procurement agency awarded Saab a contract to launch studies of next-generation fighter technologies. Saab now plans to collaborate with Embraer on some of those studies, with any resulting technologies possibly retrofitted on the international Gripen fleet and addressing “future fighter needs as they arise,” Saab said in a statement.
Johansson added that the studies will address “systems of systems” technologies for next-generation fighters, naming communication networks and artificial intelligence as among the options to be explored. Uncrewed aircraft serving as autonomous partners to crewed fighters or acting as independent combat platforms also may be involved.
The Swedish government’s concept studies still are in the initial phase, Johansson said, adding that plans include flying demonstrators of the new fighter technologies.
“We think we can do [this] together more effectively [with Embraer],” Johansson said.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington.
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New British Trainer Central To The RAF’s Green Agenda
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne April 21, 2023
The first British civil aircraft to be wholly designed, manufactured and certified in the UK in more than two decades has found an unexpected role as a testbed for the Royal Air Force’s future technologies.
Startup Swift Technology Group’s (STG) eponymous Swift light aircraft, due to make its first flight later this year, is set to be at the center of the service’s push to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in 2040, ahead of the UK’s legislated target of 2050.
• Startup hopes to fly Swift trainer this year
• RAF aims for net-zero emissions by 2040
The Swift has been selected for Monet, a UK Royal Air Force (RAF) Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO) project exploring greener propulsion alternatives and considering the environmental effects of operating with those powerplants. Among the technologies being considered are all-electric battery power, hydrogen fuel-cell propulsion, hybrid-electric configurations, as well as synthetic fuel use in combustion engines.
Swift was selected in part because several of those propulsion technologies are part of the Swift’s development road map. The company has defined an architecture for the aircraft to support alternative power systems and has selected two as-yet-undisclosed UK-based partners to support the work.
Under development at the former RAF Coltishall, England, the Swift is an all-composite, two-seat, low-wing, aerobatic-capable aircraft that the company hopes will appeal to the pilot-training and general aviation market. Interest in the aircraft from the general aviation industry has been encouraging, STG officials say. Concept design for the development of the aircraft has been taking place over the last decade and is now “mature,” the company tells Aviation Week.
After the planned first flight this year, certification—meeting the Euro-pean Union Aviation Safety Agency’s CS-23 requirements for Normal, Utility, Aerobatic and Commuter aircraft—is expected in 2025-26, with the different propulsion options to be offered later. If successful, it will be the first British aircraft to be certified since the Avro RJ series of regional airliners.
The Monet project is “complementary to our goals,” says David Stanbridge, founder and managing director of STG, adding that the Monet efforts are seen as a way to refine the aircraft further. Crucially, STG has an eye on proposing Swift to meet the RAF’s ambition to deliver an electric-powered, fully aerobatic training aircraft that would replace the Grob G 115 Tutor aircraft that are currently in service. That fleet is used for preservice flying training, grading and assessment, as well as support of the RAF’s University Air Sqdns. and Air Experience Flights. That broader program, called Project Telum, aims to deliver such an aircraft by around 2027; work on Project Monet could put the Swift in a good position for Telum. The company also received an innovation loan from the UK Defense Ministry’s Defense and Security Accelerator (DASA) (AW&ST July 26-Aug. 8, 2021, p. 52).
Company officials say the Defense Ministry assessments for securing the DASA loan and now the Monet work “validate” its approach to development.
STG says the “timing is right” for a new light training aircraft, noting that pilot-training requirements are expanding and calling for more training to be done on fewer platforms. The Swift, the company says, will feature a large cockpit for a broader demographic of pilots to fit comfortably, while its aerobatic capability “will broaden the scope of training that operators can provide to customers,” including upset prevention and recovery training.
The RCO will have access to two Swift aircraft as part of the trials, as well as access to the company’s technology development. Flight assessment will be performed by test pilots from both Swift and the Defense Ministry. Other partners in Project Monet include: Babcock, the current provider of the Grob Tutor fleet as well as an MRO provider; CFS Aero; Zero Petroleum; electric powertrain specialist Delta Cosworth; and Uplift360, a recycling technology company.
“Monet will be an exciting journey into the future of sustainable flight for the RAF,” said RAF Group Capt. Peter Hackett, the military head of flight test for Team Tempest. “We will develop and understand the technologies to enable future military aircrew and air cadets to begin their journey into aviation, and yet not adversely impact the world we all share.”
In addition to Project Monet, the RAF is continuing to explore the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and synthetic alternatives. In early April, Eurofighter Typhoons were refueled in midair with a 43% blend of SAF provided by an RAF Airbus A330 Voyager tanker. As well as reducing the service’s carbon emissions, the synthetic fuel efforts are aimed at lessening reliance on supply chains.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Pentagon Works To Strengthen Supply Chain IntegrityU
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 05, 2023
The Pentagon’s top weapons buyer and sustainment official has a common line he likes to use for CEOs who may be overconfident in their supply base. And because he is a former CEO, Bill LaPlante is comfortable saying it publicly.
“Any CEO who says, ‘I know my supply chain’ is like a CEO who says, ‘I’ve never been hacked,’” the under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment says. “They just don’t know it.”
• Top weapons buyer calls for supply chain illumination
• Tankers, airlifters, helos grounded by bad parts last year
The Defense Department’s sustainment office has raised concerns about the integrity of supply chains and parts inventories from first-tier suppliers down to those providing raw materials. The Pentagon is undertaking several steps to shore up the security of its supply chains, following multiple high-profile incidents of the wrong parts and even Chinese-produced materials making their way into critical aircraft.
LaPlante says a key focus in this area is the adoption of a private-sector approach called supply chain illumination. It applies big data analytics to open-source and other sets of information to monitor supply chains for the defense industrial base and those who maintain the aircraft and weapons. Dozens of companies in the private sector can provide this capability, and the Pentagon needs to adopt it.
“This is a big thing in the commercial world,” LaPlante says. “It’s going to have to be a big thing in the [Defense Department], and we’re exploring it.”
The integrity of parts supply for the defense industrial base made headlines in September 2022, when it emerged that a Chinese-made component had been found deep in the F-35 supply chain. All jets delivered before that month included Chinese materials in samarium-cobalt alloy magnets within the Honeywell integrated power package system. Deliveries of the aircraft were halted until LaPlante signed a waiver the next month stating that the acceptance of the aircraft is needed, the magnet did not harm the aircraft, and Honeywell would seek an alternative source of the metal.
LaPlante says a common issue within the defense industrial base is contract privity, which can mean that a subcontractor’s suppliers are kept as a trade secret from the prime contractor unless otherwise outlined.
In recent years, the integrity of spare parts inside military service sustainment facilities has come into question after aircraft had to be grounded, inspected and refitted after improper components were installed.
“It’s always a challenge making sure you have the right parts and that the right parts are in fact safe,” LaPlante says.
In February, the Air Force stopped flying its Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers, RC/WC-135s and E-3 Sentry AWACS once it was discovered that “nonconformal” vertical terminal fitting pins, or tail pins, had been installed during depot maintenance. A memorandum stated that if a pin failed in flight, the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer could fall off. The Air Force returned the aircraft to flight following inspections and replacement of the pins.
In September 2022, the Air Force was forced to ground its C-130H fleet after cracks were found in the aircraft’s propeller barrel assemblies. An Air Force investigation determined that a process of using an electric arc pen to engrave serial numbers in the propellers during depot maintenance likely caused the cracks. The Air Force must replace the propeller barrels, including with modernized Collins Aerospace NP2000 systems, and the process is expected to take several months or even years, Air Mobility Command says.
Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, tells Aviation Week that while the process for the C-130Hs and KC-135s affected flight operations, it shows the Air Force can identify and handle deficiencies quickly to avoid risk.
“There’s no part of my life that isn’t eventually associated with some factory producing things, and so there are some supply chain things that will affect when the get-well date is,” he says. “When it comes to the tail pins, that’s a pretty rapid fix. And most importantly, it’s the after-action report that happens after. It’s not just that we identified it, mitigated it and handled it; it’s how do we go back and make sure that it’s a learned process.”
The Air Force was not alone. In August 2022, the U.S. Army grounded its Boeing CH-47 Chinook fleet after faulty O-rings not produced by OEM Honeywell were installed on the T55 engines at the Army Depot. These faulty O-rings were linked to engine fires, and Army Aviation and Missile Command says the parts were mislabeled at the depot.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/supply-chain/pentagon-works-strengthen-supply-chain-integrity
U.S. Air Force Reveals New B-21 Design Details
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble March 08, 2023
A newly released Northrop Grumman B-21 picture offers the first clear view of both of the bomber’s unique air inlets.
The image, which the U.S. Air Force published March 7, reveals for the first time that the inlets are shaped like sideways teardrops.
The designers appear to have positioned a bulbous inboard section to ingest the boundary layer of air flowing over the leading edge of the wing.
If viewed from above, the inlet also appears to be L-shaped, with a right angle placed at roughly one-third of the inlet length. Both sides sweep forward from the right angle, with the outboard section at roughly two-thirds the length.
The B-21 also is designed with a pair of indentations above the engine nacelles on either side of the aft fuselage. The openings may be slits for supplemental inlets or exhausts. Alternatively, they could be apertures for sensors or communications.
Several stenciled markings appear on the wings and fuselage. The symbol for Northrop’s advanced projects division appears on the right wing, as viewed from the cockpit. The roundel of the U.S. Air Force is shown on the left wing. Along the right side of the fuselage aft of the cockpit appear three more unit logos, but the details are not visible.
The image appeared in a presentation by Gen. C.Q. Brown, the Air Force chief of staff, who addressed the Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado.
The Air Force first revealed the B-21 during a Dec. 2 ceremony at the Northrop factory in Palmdale, California, but carefully obscured views of the inlet from the crowd and live footage. The aft section of the aircraft still has never been shown to the public, nor has the identity and quantity of the engines on the bomber been disclosed.
The B-21 is still scheduled to fly this year, but Air Force officials do not offer more details. “It will fly when it’s ready,” Andrew Hunter, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics, told the symposium audience on March 7.
Air Force officials have consistently said the bomber’s development has gone generally to plan, and that certain aspects of the program have proceeded faster than similar advanced aircraft in the past.
The B-21’s mission system recently demonstrated that it could detect, target, track and destroy a target in simulations, Gen. Thomas Bussiere, the commander of Global Strike Command, said at the symposium. Although no further details were released, Bussiere’s remarks suggest the B-21 may be further along than the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35 at the same stage of development. Neither aircraft began testing the mission systems onboard until at least three years after first flight.
“The capabilities and technology integrated into that weapon system is second to none,” Bussiere said. “It will be the most advanced strike platform ever designed or built on the planet.”
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington
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Russia Nears End Of Development Of High-Speed Air-Launched Missile
Aviation Week - Piotr Butowski April 10, 2023
GDANSK, Poland—An increasing number of signs indicate that work on a new Russian high-performance air-launched missile is nearing completion.
On March 14, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the headquarters of the Tactical Missiles Corp. (KTRV) near Moscow with Alexey Krivoruchko, the deputy defense minister responsible for procurement. KTRV CEO Boris Obnosov escorted the military leaders around the plant.
In a brief video clip, Shoigu gave a short speech calling for doubling production of air-launched weapons to meet demand resulting from military operations in Ukraine.
“You have already recruited staff, quite qualified staff who works on the rise, in good spirits. The components issues have been resolved,” he said.
Even more interesting was the last sentence of Shoigu’s speech. “We hope that the commitments you have made ... for 2023, 2024, and for the entire program will be fulfilled and, in addition to what we already have, there will be a new product that ... the armed forces of other countries do not have.”
Shoigu might have been referring to a missile that Obnosov had discussed two years prior.
During an interview with the TASS news agency in June 2021, Obnosov said the corporation is conducting “research and development work to create a new-generation high-speed anti-ship missile with increased range and speed, with improved jamming resistance.”
Obnosov was responding to a question about further development of the Kh-31 missile, which flies at a maximum speed of Mach 3.5 at a distance of up to 155 mi. (250 km). “This advanced model will complement the existing range of air-launched weapons created by KTRV,” Obsonov said. That means the new missile is not a Kh-31 replacement but a complement to it, similar in purpose but with much higher characteristics.
All this together allows us to conclude the new missile that Shoigu and Obnosov were discussing is the Kh-MTs. Its future operational designation is expected to be the Kh-41. This missile has never been presented to the public, although the project started at OKB Zvezda around 1990.
The new generation Kh-MTs (multiple targets) tactical and theater-level air-to-surface missile is to be universal in terms of the carrier. It is intended for arming multirole fighters, bombers, surface ships, submarines and coastal launchers. The Kh-MTs is intended to fight surface ships, as well as some types of ground and air targets (e.g. early warning aircraft). The high effectiveness of the missile is to be ensured by a combined guidance system consisting of an active radar channel, a broadband passive radar channel and final guidance, probably in the form of an infrared sensor.
This allows the missile to operate with insufficiently accurate initial target indication and in a heavy jamming environment. The salvo of missiles can operate in a common information field. The missile is to fly to the target along various trajectories, for example with a jump to an altitude of 30-35 km (98,000-115,000 ft.) and a dive at the target at an angle of 70-80° or reaching the target at an altitude of 3-5 m in the terminal phase.
It remains unclear whether the Kh-MTs missile is related to Russia’s hypersonic missile programs.
Obnosov described the missile as flying faster and farther than the Kh-31 but did not use the term “hypersonic.” Nevertheless,
it is very likely that the “izdeliye 75” is a hypersonic missile.
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Piotr Butowski
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Ukraine Collects Four MiG-29s From Slovakia
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne March 23, 2023
Slovakia has become the first country to declare it has delivered operational crewed combat aircraft to Ukraine, with the transfer of four MiG-29s to the war-torn country.
Ukrainian pilots collected the aircraft, which had been in storage in Slovakia since the Warsaw Pact-era fighters were withdrawn from the Slovak Air Force inventory last summer.
Video released by the Slovak defense ministry shows the four aircraft, all single-seaters, taxiing out and taking off on the short delivery flight, their final destination in Ukraine unknown.
All four aircraft had their Slovak national markings painted out, but their serials remain. Another nine aircraft are expected to follow in the coming weeks, defense officials say.
Slovakia’s handing over of MiG-29s is the first officially declared transfer of operational combat aircraft to Ukraine in its war with Russia. Other nations may have made similar transfers but have not publicly announced them.
Several countries are believed to have delivered nonoperational airframes that could be stripped for spares. These include North Macedonia, which delivered four Sukhoi Su-25s ground attack aircraft from long-term storage.
“Slovakia is on the right side, and with this gesture, we as a country have written ourselves in capital letters in modern world history,” Slovak Defense Minister Jaro Nad said.
Poland has also declared that it will deliver its surplus MiG-29s to Ukraine. The transfers are expected to take place shortly, if they have not already. Warsaw has so far kept a tight lid on its defense equipment transfers to Ukraine.
It is hoped that the fighter transfers will help bolster the Ukrainian Air Force fighter fleet. The fleet has employed its MiG-29s mainly for air defense duties and also in an austere destruction of enemy air defense role, thanks to deliveries of U.S. anti-radiation missiles.
Ukraine is ultimately seeking deliveries of Western combat aircraft such as Lockheed Martin F-16s to try to secure air superiority over Russian fighters and air defenses.
Slovakia plans to backfill the MiG-29s with deliveries of Block 70 F-16s that were on order prior to the war starting, but deliveries have been delayed.
Without a fighter aircraft to perform national air policing, protection of Slovak airspace is currently being performed by fighters from Poland and the Czech Republic.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Field Aerospace Completes Avionics Refresh Program For T-1A Fleet
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble March 22, 2023
Field Aerospace has completed a curtailed avionics refresh for 73 U.S. Air Force T-1A Jayhawk multi-engine trainers, the company said March 21.
The Air Force launched the program in 2019 with the intention of inducting all 178 T-1As in the Avionics Modification program, but later decided to end the upgrade program after completing 73 aircraft.
All T-1As are being retired over the next three years as the Air Force moves to a simulator-only curriculum for pilots bound to fly mobility aircraft such as the C-5, C-17, KC-46 and C-130.
For the avionics refresh, Field Aerospace installed the Collins Aerospace ProLine 21 avionics system, which includes a glass cockpit with four liquid crystal displays. The upgrade complies with an existing supplemental type certificate program for the Beech 400A, which is the civilian designation for the T-1A.
Although reduced in size, the project was still the largest of its kind completed by Field Aerospace, a maintenance, repair and overhaul company with U.S. operations based in Oklahoma City.
“We had done this type of work before, but not for the T-1A,” said Paul Berry, Field’s T-1A program manager. Collins, Nextant Aerospace and Flight Safety International participated in the program as subcontractors.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Opinion: We Are Tempting Armageddon In Ukraine
Aviation Week - Carl Conetta March 07, 2023
Russian threats of nuclear use have grown increasingly serious as Ukrainian forces, buttressed by Western support, have pressed forward against the Russian front lines in Ukraine. In his Feb. 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly claimed “an existential threat,” citing U.S. officials’ talk of seeking Russia’s strategic defeat. Putin also suspended participation in the New START arms control treaty and directed the military to prepare to resume nuclear testing, asserting that Washington was doing the same. This may reveal his next move.
Along its present course, the Ukraine conflict likely will culminate in a U.S.-Russia standoff more serious than the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Washington contends that Putin’s nuclear threats ring hollow and that U.S. counterthreats are a sufficient deterrent. This is a grave miscalculation. Washington misconstrues Moscow’s perspective in several ways that obscure the risk of nuclear use.
First, Moscow sees the current conflict as a strategic showdown with the West that has profound implications for Russia’s global sway. Washington sees this as well, but contends that Moscow is caught in a corner without practicable exit options. This is wrong.
Second, as Moscow sees it, the advance of NATO-enabled Ukrainian forces presages the advance of NATO itself. For 30 years, Moscow has called the eastward expansion of NATO a critical security concern. For just as long, NATO leaders have denied it. What matters, however, is whether Moscow is sincere in fearing the leverage that NATO might gain by sitting forces on Russia’s long border with Ukraine.
Third, many Western observers suggest that Moscow will not risk the U.S. retaliation that a resort to nuclear weapons would bring—as though Moscow has no option for counterretaliation. Putin reasonably might wonder: Is Washington ready to sacrifice Boston for, say, the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade? For that matter, how much risk are the NATO allies willing to assume? Their commitment to “staying the course” in Ukraine is the target of Putin’s threats.
The outcome of the Ukraine war will profoundly affect Russia’s stature and influence as a global power. It also will affect the nation’s internal stability. The conflict asks: Can Russia win even a local war against an adversary supported by the West? Does Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal count for much in the contest of powers? In this light, the conflict should count at minimum as a “near-existential” crisis for Moscow—“check,” if not quite “checkmate.”
Facing conventional defeat, Moscow would have a variety of nuclear options. The least likely of these is garnering the most attention in the West: an attack on Ukrainian forces using so-called “tactical” nuclear systems. Such weapons would not be effective enough to blunt a major Ukrainian offensive unless used in numbers that would also put Russian troops and areas at risk. Moreover, such action would earn global reprobation and invite direct U.S. intervention—Washington has pledged as much. Putin still has other, more likely options.
In the case of a decisive Ukrainian drive on the Russian border or Crimea, Moscow could signal dramatic escalation by putting its strategic nuclear forces on high alert and deploying some tactical nuclear units in an ostentatious fashion. The aim would be to break the Western consensus for war and prompt a cease-fire and negotiations. An additional step, although unlikely, would be a nuclear “warning blast” over or under Russian territory. Warning shots are entirely consonant with Russian nuclear doctrine. An underground test of a strategic weapon in violation of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty would suffice, and it would accord with Putin’s recent statement. This would be an attempt at extended deterrence by intimidation, which also would involve any obvious increases in nuclear force readiness.
In the case of a marked rise in Russian nuclear activity, Washington would necessarily raise the alert level of U.S. nuclear forces. The result would be a confrontation more dangerous than the 1962 Cuban missile standoff—more dangerous due to the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
An early, deadly use of nuclear weapons remains very unlikely. Realistically, it is crisis instability that poses the greatest danger of nuclear cataclysm. Any situation that prompts a bilateral resort to peak levels of nuclear readiness—a hair-trigger standoff—greatly increases the likelihood of accidental or mistaken nuclear use.
The experience of the Cuban missile crisis remains relevant to managing the current confrontation wisely. Reflecting on the crisis, McGeorge Bundy, who was President John F. Kennedy’s national security advisor during it, estimated that the crisis had involved a rather modest one-in-100 risk of nuclear war. Nonetheless, Bundy observed: “In this apocalyptic matter, the risk can be very small indeed and still much too large for comfort.” Foremost in Washington’s planning about the Ukraine conflict should be Bundy’s observation that even a very limited nuclear exchange “would be a disaster beyond history.”
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Carl Conetta is a researcher at the Project on Defense Alternatives and author of “Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use Is Misconstrued in Western Policy.”
The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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U.S. Air Force Reveals New B-21 Design Details
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble March 08, 2023
A newly released Northrop Grumman B-21 picture offers the first clear view of both of the bomber’s unique air inlets.
The image, which the U.S. Air Force published March 7, reveals for the first time that the inlets are shaped like sideways teardrops.
The designers appear to have positioned a bulbous inboard section to ingest the boundary layer of air flowing over the leading edge of the wing.
If viewed from above, the inlet also appears to be L-shaped, with a right angle placed at roughly one-third of the inlet length. Both sides sweep forward from the right angle, with the outboard section at roughly two-thirds the length.
The B-21 also is designed with a pair of indentations above the engine nacelles on either side of the aft fuselage. The openings may be slits for supplemental inlets or exhausts. Alternatively, they could be apertures for sensors or communications.
Several stenciled markings appear on the wings and fuselage. The symbol for Northrop’s advanced projects division appears on the right wing, as viewed from the cockpit. The roundel of the U.S. Air Force is shown on the left wing. Along the right side of the fuselage aft of the cockpit appear three more unit logos, but the details are not visible.
The image appeared in a presentation by Gen. C.Q. Brown, the Air Force chief of staff, who addressed the Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado.
The Air Force first revealed the B-21 during a Dec. 2 ceremony at the Northrop factory in Palmdale, California, but carefully obscured views of the inlet from the crowd and live footage. The aft section of the aircraft still has never been shown to the public, nor has the identity and quantity of the engines on the bomber been disclosed.
The B-21 is still scheduled to fly this year, but Air Force officials do not offer more details. “It will fly when it’s ready,” Andrew Hunter, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics, told the symposium audience on March 7.
Air Force officials have consistently said the bomber’s development has gone generally to plan, and that certain aspects of the program have proceeded faster than similar advanced aircraft in the past.
The B-21’s mission system recently demonstrated that it could detect, target, track and destroy a target in simulations, Gen. Thomas Bussiere, the commander of Global Strike Command, said at the symposium. Although no further details were released, Bussiere’s remarks suggest the B-21 may be further along than the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35 at the same stage of development. Neither aircraft began testing the mission systems onboard until at least three years after first flight.
“The capabilities and technology integrated into that weapon system is second to none,” Bussiere said. “It will be the most advanced strike platform ever designed or built on the planet.”
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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First Armed Overwatch AT-802Us In Conversion; Tests Planned This Year
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine March 02, 2023
FORT WALTON BEACH, Florida—L3Harris is converting the first two AirTractor AT-802s to the special operations OA-1K armed overwatch aircraft ahead of planned government verification tests later this year.
U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) last summer selected the Air Tractor/L3Harris team for the Armed Overwatch program, picking the AT-802U Sky Warden for its planned 75-aircraft fleet. Armed Overwatch will replace the U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command’s U-28 surveillance fleet with a rugged aircraft that will primarily perform close air support with additional surveillance capability, with a specific focus on operating from rugged, austere locations.
Col. Ken Kuebler, SOCOM’s fixed wing program executive officer, tells Aerospace DAILY that the first production aircraft arrived at the L3Harris modification facility in Tulsa, Oklahoma, from Air Tractor’s production line in Olney, Texas, in early February. The initial prototype aircraft, which was originally used in SOCOM’s evaluation, also is at the Tulsa facility to be converted to production representative. This aircraft will start flying in L3Harris’s contractor verification tests, with the government’s verification tests planned in the early first quarter of fiscal 2024.
The aircraft are being modified from the original prototype, including a redesigned wing. Kuebler says the changes are not unexpected and will not add to the program’s aggressive schedule. Air Force Special Operations Command in a statement says the modified wing will provide a “growth path for future modifications.”
SOCOM will spend up to $3 billion for the program, with a planned initial operational capability in 2026-2027.
In the meantime, SOCOM will continue to fly and sustain the U-28 until crews transition from it to the OA-1K, Kuebler says. The U-28 is a modified, surveillance-only Pilatus PC-12.
The change from the U-28 to the OA-1K means unique training for pilots. The Air Tractor is the first “tail dragger” airplane the military will operate in large numbers, with its conventional landing gear and two main wheels forward of the center of gravity.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Weekly Debrief: What Does A Concept Design Reveal About China’s Next Fighter?
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble February 06, 2023
AVIC unveiled a tailless supersonic concept design for a sixth-generation fighter.
A new official rendering of a future fighter by a Chinese aircraft manufacturer offers some insights into one of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) prized development projects, although perhaps not in the actual details shown by the released design.
The concept design appeared in a video released Jan. 31 on AVIC’s WeChat channel, showing a formation of three apparently tailless, supersonic fighters flashing by a stationary camera high above the clouds. But the revealed design seems unlikely to produce a viable configuration, with mixed-and-matched features seemingly patterned after a J-20-style nose and wings, F-22-style caret inlets and leading edge root extensions and nonfuturistic, exposed engine nozzles.
For China’s state-owned AVIC, the release of the media itself may be the message. The sudden disclosure adds to a steady drumbeat of messaging about the long-term development project and the future of Chinese military aviation.
By any modern-day measure, China has made significant progress over the past 12 years, fielding the J-20A stealth fighter by the dozens, nearing completion of J-35 fighter development and delivering new variants of homegrown versions of the RussianFlanker series, as well as the locally developed J-10.
Such an accelerated modernization agenda seemed difficult to imagine when the J-20 was revealed in 2011. At the time, the PLAAF consisted mainly of a small number of fourth-generation J-10s, J-11s and much older JH-7s and J-8s, with each taking decades to usher into production.
With the H-20 stealth bomber due to enter service later this decade, Chinese officials are making it increasingly clear that they will continue to develop new generations of fighters. Yang Wei, chief designer of the J-20, has hinted at plans for a seventh-generation fighter to follow a sixth-generation fighter. Speaking at the Zhuhai Air Show in November, Yang invoked the fifth-generation 20-, and 30-series, and promised future generational-level series.
“In addition to upgrading the J-20 in the 20 series aircraft, there will also be new developments, as people will eventually see members in the 30-, 40- and 50-series aircraft,” Global Times quoted Yang as saying on Nov. 7.
AVIC’s newly released concept design also follows broad trends, albeit not perhaps in the specific details. A tailless aircraft has consistently appeared in AVIC presentations and other visual clues of the sixth-generation fighter. In October 2021, for example, The War Zone website reported on new commercial satellite imagery, which showed a tailless, J-20-sized fighter parked near a hangar at the Chengdu aircraft plant. The same AVIC-owned facility designed and produced the J-20. Three years earlier, a photo of a placard circulating on Chinese social media said that the Chengdu Aerospace Corp. had submitted eight proposals for the sixth-generation fighter design, of which four models had completed testing in a low-altitude wind tunnel.
China typically does not release schedule details about future weapon systems, but the sixth-generation fighter might be an exception. Wang Haifeng, chief designer at Chengdu, said in an interview that the Chinese goal is to field a new fighter by 2035.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Opinion: What We Got Wrong And Right About Ukraine
Aviation Week - Byron Callan February 24, 2023
The one-year anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine was marked by a torrent of commentary and events remarking on what the war has meant and speculation about what is in store. For the most part, however, there has been little reflection on how much was incorrectly assessed since late 2021, particularly by persons or institutions who were wrong. That may be one of the biggest lessons of the war that should be taken to heart in 2023 and beyond: Assessments must be better.
It is hard to measure in hindsight what the consensus was, but it is worth reviewing some of the dominant projections and views and just how wrong they were. Here are a few, for example: “Russia would not invade Ukraine.” It did. “If Russia invaded Ukraine, it would only have minor aims in the Donbas.” Its goals were far larger. “Russia would crush the Ukrainian military in a couple of weeks.” It did not.
Western anti-tank weapons such as the Lockheed Martin Javelin and Saab’s NLAW were decisive. They helped Ukraine but did not defeat Russia. Tanks were again pronounced obsolete. Yet Ukraine wants at least 300 tanks, and Poland announced major orders from the U.S. and South Korea. The value of rotary-wing aircraft also was questioned after an initial Russian helicopter assault failed. But then Poland ordered Boeing AH-64 Apaches, and the U.S. proceeded to award a Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft contract to Bell Textron.
Another projection was that sanctions and export controls would crush Russia’s economy. They have imposed costs on Russia, but it is manufacturing weapons that include Western microelectronics, and its economy is not in the gutter.
Some observers said China would not dare help Russia. But it has in minor ways, and China could provide substantially more help in 2023. Some said that Putin would not risk a broader mobilization of Russia or that he would fall. Putin has mobilized more widely, but he has not fallen. Many expected that Ukraine would not be able to mount a major counteroffensive, and yet it has. And there were worries that countries in the Middle East and North Africa would starve and Europe would freeze. Fortunately, neither has happened.
I used to work for a research director who stated that “surprises” were a Wall Street myth. Someone knew if a quarter’s shipments were going to be missed or there was a major cost overrun. A turnaround could be delivering far better results than recognized by outsiders. Bob Lutz of Chrysler discusses this in his book Guts.
“Surprises” also may be a military-geopolitical myth. The U.S. and other European intelligence communities were prescient in warning that Russia would invade. People who had observed Russian military exercises or worked with its military units could attest to its performance. Some individuals know how Russian logistics and maintenance compare with NATO practices and standards. Some know the quality of Ukraine’s officers and soldiers.
Another “surprise” is economic and defense-industrial: In the spring of 2022, analyses noted how dependent Russia’s industry had become on European and Asian machine tools. Coupled with the brain drain of Russian engineers fleeing the country, I thought its defense sector would face insurmountable problems supplying the military.
Clearly, Russia’s defense sector has struggled, but the Royal Services Institute has done excellent work documenting how Western microelectronics are still finding their way into Russian weapons. Data compiled by Matt Klein and published on his blog “The Overshoot” shows that the value of total exports at the end of 2022 were 15% below their monthly preinvasion average.
Some current and emerging narratives on the Russia-Ukraine war are worth probing. One is the provision of Western combat aircraft to Ukraine, notably Lockheed Martin F-16s. The fighters will be provided eventually, I expect, but I doubt they will be decisive in tipping the balance of the war in Ukraine’s favor.
Another narrative is that no end to the war is in sight. I don’t know how this war will end, but wars typically end in a negotiated armistice or cease-fire—the Korean War in 1953, multiple Arab-Israeli wars, Iran and Iraq in 1988 and the Desert Storm conflict of 1991 are all examples. Or they end with the total defeat and collapse of one of the combatants, such as happened in South Vietnam in 1975 and Iraq in 2003.
Surprises are part of war, as 2022 has amply demonstrated, and we are certain to see more surprises in 2023 that confound dominant narratives. Ukraine’s offensive could be highly successful in routing Russian forces. Or Ukraine could lose the armor and other kit supplied to it in a poorly executed offensive against a Russian military that might have learned from events last year.
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Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital Alpha Partners.
The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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Boeing, Saab, Northrop Respond To NATO E-3 Successor Calls
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne February 21, 2023
Western suppliers of airborne early warning aircraft have responded to a surprise NATO request for information (RFI) about the platforms.
Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Saab all have confirmed they responded to the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) RFI, with Boeing supplying data on its 737-based E-7, Northrop Grumman supplying data on its E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, and Saab detailing its Bombardier Global business jet-based GlobalEye.
According to NSPA, the RFI is part of its activity around what calls the Initial - Alliance Future Surveillance and Control (I-AFSC) program, the first step in the development of a future surveillance system that will replace NATO’s aging fleet of Boeing E-3 Sentry AEW aircraft in 2035.
The Geilenkirchen, Germany-based E-3 Sentry fleet has been in service with NATO since the early 1980s.
Until now, the AFSC effort has been focused on what alliance officials have described as a multidomain surveillance and command and control system. It uses a distributed system of systems communicating using high bandwidth technologies and automation and linking up existing capabilities already in service with alliance member states.
Notably, the AFSC efforts so far have not discussed the need for an airborne high-powered radar platform, and NSPA officials say the RFI “does not suggest or imply a change in direction for the AFSC program.” NSPA told Aerospace DAILY the RFI was sent to other companies and their answers are being assessed.
It has been suggested the U.S. decision to begin looking at replacing its Boeing 707-based E-3 fleet may prompt other operators of the type to look again at their replacement options. Royal Air Force officials also suggested last summer that a U.S. Air Force buy of E-7s likely would lead to NATO also adopting the type.
The E-7 is already in service with Australia, South Korea and Turkey, and a new conversion line has been opened in the UK to meet a Royal Air Force order for three aircraft.
In its Feb. 21 press release announcing its response to the RFI, Saab’s Carl-Johan Bergholm, head of the company’s surveillance business, said Saab is a “proven and trusted part of NATO’s defense industrial base.”
“Our solutions, including GlobalEye, are from the outset developed to be compliant with NATO’s requirements. I am confident that we can contribute with important capabilities that will strengthen NATO and benefit the member countries,” Bergholm said. The GlobalEye, which was developed in conjunction with the United Arab Emirates, has also been ordered by Sweden for its future AEW needs.
A Boeing spokesperson told Aerospace DAILY it was “pleased to offer” the E-7 in response to the NATO RFI. “The E-7 is the right capability for a uniquely demanding mission in a changing global battlespace as a combat-proven airborne battle management platform ... NATO allies and partners have already seen E-7 as a proven, mission-critical asset across the globe.
Boeing already was involved in pursuing AFSC through its ABILITI consortium, which also includes Spain’s Indra, Inmarsat, Leonardo and Thales.
Northrop Grumman confirmed to Aerospace DAILY on Feb. 23 that it too had responded to the RFI in conjunction with members of the ASPAARO consortium, which also was engaged in the AFSC contest.
Janice Zilch, Northrop Grumman’s vice president for multi-domain command and control programs, said the E-2D would preserve NATO’s vision for multi-domain command and control.
“The E-2D will equip NATO and its member countries with technology that has continuously outpaced evolving threats,” Zilch said.
[Editor's Note: This story was amended to include information about Northrop Grumman's response to the RFI.]
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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UAE Signs Chinese Jet Trainer Deal
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne February 21, 2023
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is understood to have gone through with a controversial deal to buy Chinese advanced jet trainers.
The signing of the order for 12 Hongdu L-15 jet trainers during the International Defense Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 21 was reported by several Chinese media outlets, citing the manufacturer, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), although it is yet to be confirmed by Emirati authorities.
The reported signing comes almost exactly a year after the UAE defense ministry announced the agreement with China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) on Feb. 23, 2022.
A model of the L-15 in UAE Air Force colors displayed on the CATIC stand at the show suggests the aircraft will be used for advanced jet training and equipped with an aerial refueling probe, potentially allowing it to refuel from the UAE’s Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transports.
The original agreement with CATIC included options for up to 36 aircraft, but it is unclear how many of these options, if any, have been taken up.
Abu Dhabi has been looking for several years for a new jet trainer to replace its aging fleet of BAe Hawks.
A plan to purchase a similar number of Leonardo M346s was put on hold in 2011, while Korean Aerospace Industries in January 2022 proposed a package of 60 T-50 Golden Eagle aircraft.
The L-15 order comes after Abu Dhabi halted discussions in December 2021 for a $13.4 billion order of Lockheed Martin F-35s and General Atomics MQ-9 uncrewed aircraft systems after the U.S. expressed reservations about the UAE’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China.
UAE officials at the time said the L-15 order aligned with the UAE’s framework for diversifying the military’s sources of equipment. The move also appeared to send a message to the U.S. after Washington expressed reservations about the UAE’s close ties with China—including the use of telecommunications technology provided by Huawei and apparent plans for a Chinese military facility inside a UAE seaport.
The UAE is the first Middle Eastern customer for the L-15 platform. Other customers include the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force and the Zambian Air Force.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Perseverance Completes Backup Mars Sample Return Cache
Aviation Week - Mark Carreau January 30, 2023
HOUSTON—NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover has completed the caching of 10 samples of rock cores gathered from its Jezero Crater landing site at a location designated Three Forks.
The depot is intended to serve as a backup sample gathering site for a joint NASA/European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission intended to deliver samples of red planet surface materials back to Earth to determine if they harbor evidence of past life.
Confirmation that the carefully orchestrated Three Forks sample caching which began on Dec. 21 had been completed was confirmed on Jan. 29, a Jan. 30 update provided by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory said.
With the Three Forks caching complete, Perseverance will roll on to Jezero’s river delta, where new core samples of rocky materials are to be gathered that are believed to have originated beyond the 28-mi.-wide impact crater that formed about 4 billion years ago and filled with water from the river flow.
NASA and ESA are working to launch the Mars orbiter, lander and ascent and Earth return elements of the MSR mission in late 2027 and 2028. Its cost is an estimated $4.4 billion. The strategy calls for Perseverance to meet up with the MSR lander/ascent rocket elements to hand off samples of the crater and river delta secured in 7-in. titanium tubes and stored on board the rover. The NASA ascent vehicle will launch the samples to a European Mars orbiter, where NASA’s Capture, Containment, and Return System and Earth Entry System is to deliver the samples from Mars orbit to Earth for a descent and recovery planned for 2033.
If Perseverance, which landed at Jezero on Feb. 18, 2021, could not reach the MSL lander, the lander’s two helicopter drones would fly to Three Forks, collect the 10 cached samples and fly them to the MSL lander and ascent vehicle.
The 10 samples cached by Perseverance at Three Forks are duplicates of samples that remain aboard the rover.
Once back on Earth, all of the samples are to be archived at NASA Johnson Space Center’s Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office and distributed to researchers with the latest science laboratory technologies for analysis to provide evidence for possible past life on Mars.
The samples cached at Three Forks also include one of the Martian atmosphere and a “witness” tube, which would reveal possible Earthly contamination, though the Perseverance elements were prepared for launch in as pristine a manner as possible to prevent terrestrial contamination.
Three Forks is located on a flat stretch at the base of the raised, fan-shaped river delta through which water is believed to have once flowed into the crater. The sample tubes were deposited in a zigzag pattern about 15 to 50 ft. apart from one another to enhance their recovery. The depot was carefully mapped by the rover so the sample tubes can be recovered even if they become covered in dust, NASA’s status update says.
“With the Three Forks depot in our rearview mirror, Perseverance is now headed up the delta,’’ Rick Welch, Perseverance’s deputy project manager at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), said as part of the update.
“As we ascend the delta into a river setting, we expect to move into rocks that are composed of larger grains from sand to large boulders. Those materials likely originated in rocks outside of Jezero, eroded and then washed into the crater,” explained Caltech’s Ken Farley, the Perseverance mission project scientist.
One of the first stops in the delta campaign has been designated the “Curvilinear Unit,” which is believed to host a sandbar with outcrops of sandstone and perhaps mudstone that could hold evidence of past geological and possible biological processes beyond the large crater.
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Mark Carreau
Mark is based in Houston, where he has written on aerospace for more than 25 years. While at the Houston Chronicle, he was recognized by the Rotary National Award for Space Achievement Foundation in 2006 for his professional contributions to the public understanding of America's space program through news reporting.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/space/perseverance-completes-backup-mars-sample-return-cache
Biden Rejects Supplying F-16s To Ukraine
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 31, 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden appeared to dismiss the possibility of directly providing Lockheed Martin F-16s to Ukraine with a terse, one-word response to a question on Jan. 30.
A reporter asked Biden outside the White House if the U.S. government would supply F-16s to Ukraine.
“No,” Biden replied, without elaborating.
The White House has recently heeded Ukraine’s requests to supply tanks, agreeing to send the M1A2 Abrams battle tank in the future. And Biden’s administration helped pressure Germany to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine in the near future.
The moves encouraged some Ukrainian officials to resubmit long-standing requests for Western-built fighters to bolster a thinning inventory of Russian-made tactical aircraft.
But Biden’s response indicates that U.S. policy on supplying fighters to Ukraine has not changed since the first weeks of Russia’s attempt to mount a large-scale, multifront invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year.
Instead, U.S. policy has focused on supplying a succession of increasingly sophisticated, ground-based air systems to Ukraine, culminating with an agreement last month to transfer a Patriot battery.
Unlike fighters, such air defense systems are not able to launch offensive attacks deep inside Russian territory, which might be viewed in Moscow as an escalatory move by Ukraine’s supporters in the West.
But Biden’s response to a question about a direct supply of F-16 by the U.S. government may still keep other options open. A senior diplomat in the Netherlands has said that government would consider donating its own F-16s to Ukraine if asked. Poland has also considered transferring an aging inventory of MiG-29s to Ukraine either as fighters or as a supply of spare parts.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/biden-rejects-supplying-f-16s-ukraine
Japan’s F-15 Upgrade Adds Strike Capability
Aviation Week - Bradley Perrett January 23, 2023
Japan’s F-15 upgrade program is focused on more than dealing with just cruise missile attacks, even though official statements long have hinted that was chiefly the main objective.
The traditional core fighter role of taking on enemy fighters also is clearly a priority, since the defense ministry confirms the upgrade includes integration of the Mitsubishi Electric AAM-4B, a high-performance but probably costly air-to-air missile (AAM).
• Knocking down cruise missiles is a key objective
• Adding the AAM-4B reveals a traditional fighter role
• Integrating strike missiles is a big step for Japan
Still, a need to deal with masses of cruise missiles approaching from the Pacific side of Japan is probably the single most influential driver of the program and is reflected in the name of the upgraded version, the F-15J Japan Super Interceptor (JSI).The mission of defending in that direction has been a consistently stated requirement.
Another program objective is adding strike capability to the F-15Js, which are similar to F-15Cs and were designed with little regard for ground attack. The change will represent a big step for a country whose voters generally have been repulsed by the idea of offensive military capability since World War II.
The ministry is no longer focused entirely on defense over the Pacific, however. With this program, it and the defense force aim “to comprehensively improve defense capabilities in the airspace surrounding Japan, including the vast airspace on the Pacific area,” the defense ministry says.
The upgrade effort was first funded, initially for development, in the fiscal year beginning April 2019; a first batch of 20 F-15s should be upgraded by 2027. All are F-15Js that have undergone a modernization effort aimed at equipping them with Mitsubishi Electric AAM-4B air-to-air missiles.
The program originally was supposed to cover upgrades of up to 98 of Japan’s then total of 201 F-15s, but in February 2022 it was confirmed as extending to only 68 aircraft. Nevertheless, a doubling of Japanese defense spending that since has become government policy raises the possibility of restoration to the original number.
The ministry says it estimates the upgrade cost at ¥3.5 billion ($26 million) per aircraft. That compares with the $78 million unit cost of Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightnings, which Japan also is buying.
The mission of intercepting cruise missiles explains a lot of the motivation behind the program, as illustrated by a plausible scenario of 12 Chinese H-6K bombers firing 72 CJ-20 cruise missiles, similar to Tomahawks, over the open ocean south of Japan’s main islands.
Interception of such a raid would demand use of medium-range radar-guided missiles, because the CJ-20s would presumably spread out laterally. Using short-range missiles or guns against them would be a time-consuming task—knocking down one and then maneuvering to get at the next.
But neither of the medium-range AAM types now used on Japan’s F-15s suits the job. About half of the force still relies on Raytheon AIM-7 Sparrows, semi-active weapons that limit the firing aircraft to one target at a time. As for those with the AAM-4B, that Sparrow-size weapon has an active, electronically scanned array (AESA) and must be unnecessarily capable and expensive for the job.
Japan’s Eagles currently carry just four medium-range AAMs each, so if an average of 1.5 shots were needed against each of 72 incoming cruise missiles, then 27 fighters would have to be assigned in an attempt to thoroughly defeat the raid with AAMs. That would be a plausible objective, avoiding the expenditure ofcostly surface-to-air missiles when the attacking weapons arrive in the target area.
Moreover, the relatively limited sensitivity of the current APG-63(V)1 radar would prolong the engagement, while its low track capacity would increase pilots’ challenges in coordination and therefore cost more time. Yet, there might only be a little time available as the cruise missiles approach their targets and fighter fuel gaugesfall.
The upgraded aircraft would perform differently in that scenario. For a start, the APG-82 radars, with AESAs, would detect cruise missiles earlier and keep track of many more of them. So pilots approaching a missile volley would have an earlier and more comprehensive view of it.
The JSI upgrade includes integrating Raytheon AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (Amraams), which, like AAM-4Bs, have active radar seekers, enabling pilots to deal with several cruise missiles simultaneously. The ministry emphasizes the APG-82’s contribution to that multitarget capability. Amraams are no doubt cheaper than AAM-4Bs, so keeping enough rounds in stock will be more achievable.
Each F-15 will carry more medium-range AAMs than before. The ministry declines to say how many, but Boeing has already developed a 12-Amraam configuration for current-production F-15s while proposing a layout with 22 rounds.
If Japan has agreed to 12 Amraams per Eagle, and if 1.5 shots per target are still assumed, then only nine fighters might be assigned to deal with 72 incoming cruise missiles.
The prospective speed at which the fighters could work on eliminating cruise missile volleys raises the question of whether maintaining airborne patrols would always be necessary. If incoming missiles could reliably be detected in time, the air force might hold F-15s on the ground for scrambling. That would greatly reduce the burden on the fighter fleet.
While the better radar also markedly improves the F-15J’s performance against crewed aircraft, the ministry tells Aviation Week that the AAM-4B also is included in the upgrade. That underlines the importance of traditional fighter missions in the program.
It also suggests that the Japanese missile, with its advanced seeker, outperforms the AIM-120C-7/8, the Amraam version being made available to Tokyo. The cost of integrating the AAM-4B otherwise would hardly would have been worthwhile.
Also, Washington, often inclined to promote U.S. missile exports by declining requests to integrate foreign weapons with U.S. fire-control systems, must have been persuaded that Japan needed AAM-4Bs on its Eagles.
A particular advantage of the Japanese weapon could be seeker performance against the Avic Chengdu J-20, which, as a stealthy aircraft, should be difficult for radar-guided AAMs to lock on to.
The AAM-4B has a larger volume than the Amraam, raising the possibility that it carries a big enough motor to give it more range than the AIM-120C-7/8, though whether it actually does fly farther would depend on factors including the energy density of the propellant. If it does have great range, it would be valuable when dealing with Chinese fighters such as Avic Shenyang J-16s carrying PL-15 missiles, which appear to be even bigger.
Upgraded F-15s also would be more effective in attacking Chinese bombers—eventually including H-20 stealth bombers—before weapon release. That would probably include dealing with any on their way to attacking U.S. installations on and close to Guam.Integration of the AAM-4B previously was unconfirmed, though the ministry initiated a study into the possibility in 2019.
In cooperation with the UK, Japan is developing a version of the MBDA Meteor with an AESA seeker. The ministry says there is no plan initially to integrate this weapon, the Joint New Air-to-Air Missile (JNAAM), as part of the upgrade. But no such plan could be likely at this stage, since the JNAAM is still in development. It must remain a probable option, however.
A new system for jamming, detection and exploitation of enemy radio-frequency emissions is part of the upgrade. In 2018, the ministry depicted that feature as the BAE Systems ALQ-239 DEWS outfit, but the U.S. State Department revealed in August that the ALQ-250 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (Epawss) being fitted to U.S. F-15s would be supplied to Japan—no doubt for the JSI upgrade.
Since the Epawss and APG-82 are in U.S. F-15E upgrades and the new-production F-15EX, Japan is clearly benefiting from a wider development and production program—and ultimately from Boeing’s success in selling improved F-15s to export customers that have launched integration of new features, notably Qatar.
As for the strike missiles, AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), they could deal with a great variety of surface targets but would have limited value against one of the most important: mobile launchers for North Korean ballistic missiles. When releasing subsonic JASSMs against such launchers, F-15 pilots would have to expect the targets to remain stationary for an hour or two.
The specific JASSM version that Japan will buy has not been disclosed, but the air force surely will prefer the longest-ranging version.
The cut to the number of F-15Js to be upgraded came before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida directed in November that defense spending rise by 2027 to 2% of gross domestic product, double the limit that has applied for decades. Since upgrading 30 more F-15s was a requirement that has only recently slipped below the affordability line, it may now be comfortably above it.
Moreover, economically extending production in an existing program is a relatively easy decision to make for a government looking to bolster defenses, especially as it faces challenges in finding ways to spend quickly.
Still, the ministry says no decision has been made on expanding the JSI program. Even the timing of upgrades for the remaining 48 aircraft definitely earmarked for upgrades is not yet determined.
If the government does want to pay for more upgrades, remaining airframe life is not an issue. Data from studies by the U.S. Air Force and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the builder of almost all of Japan’s F-15s, indicate the force theoretically can be flown until the mid-2060s, the ministry says.
No date for retiring upgraded F-15s has been set, it says. F-35s will replace those that are not upgraded.
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Bradley Perrett covers China, Japan, South Korea and Australia. He is a Mandarin-speaking Australian.
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Embraer Backlog Grows With New Order For 15 E195-E2s
Aviation Week - Jens Flottau January 17, 2023
DUBLIN—Embraer is beginning 2023 with a substantial new order for its Embraer E195-E2 jets.
The order has been signed by an undisclosed customer and is added to the backlog for the fourth quarter of 2022.
“We see a significant amount of activity,” Embraer President and CEO Commercial Aviation Arjan Meijer said on the sidelines of air finance conferences in Dublin Jan. 17. While the U.S. market remains “tough” because of the shortage of pilots particularly affecting regional airlines, Meijer sees surging interest in Asia at large, China and Africa. In Europe, he anticipates demand for replacement of large first-generation Embraer aircraft to grow significantly soon.
One of the largest fleets to be replaced is at Lufthansa Group, spread across several of its subsidiaries including Air Dolomiti, Lufthansa CityLine and Austrian. The three carriers operating a total of 44 E1s, according to Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery database. Lufthansa’s planned takeover of ITA Airways changes the competitive dynamics for regional manufacturers. ITA has opted for the Airbus A220 and not the E2, increasing Lufthansa’s future exposure to Airbus even further. Subsidiary Swiss also has a large fleet of A220s. In addition to the E1s, Lufthansa Group over time also has to replace a fleet of Mitsubishi CRJs, of which CityLine operates 28. Lufthansa has not issued a formal request for proposals (RFP) yet, but CEO Carsten Spohr recently indicated that it is moving toward it.
According to Fleet Discovery, Embraer has a backlog of 201 firm orders for the E190-E2 and E195-E2, not including the latest deal. Sales have been sluggish for a number of years since the type was introduced in 2018. The coronavirus pandemic dented demand, but Meijer also pointed at the fact that the E1 in-service fleet was too young to be replaced when the E2 became available.
The company is disclosing 2022 deliveries only at the end of March. It told the market previously that it anticipated delivering 60 to 70 aircraft in 2022. But Meijer hinted that Embraer wants to “grow steadily from where we are today.” Embraer delivered 90 commercial aircraft in 2018 and 89 in 2019.
Growing output will be challenging, at least in the near term, as the Brazilian OEM continues to be affected by supply chain delays, particularly by engine manufacturers but also other types of equipment. Meijer believes the situation will not change in the first half of 2023, though it might “improve slightly” in the second half.
Embraer’s main 2023 airline customers include Brazil’s Azul, the Netherlands’ KLM, and Canada’s Porter Airlines, which began taking delivery of E2s at the end of 2022. According to Meijer, Embraer has no open production slots in 2023 and only a few remaining in 2024.
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Jens Flottau
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens is executive editor and leads Aviation Week Network’s global team of journalists covering commercial aviation.
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Technical Fault Identified After F-35B Crash
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 04, 2023
A Lockheed Martin F-35B crash last month has been linked to a technical fault that affects an undisclosed number of aircraft as the U.S. Navy continues a potentially monthslong investigation into the root cause of the nonfatal incident.
A Time Critical Technical Directive (TCTD) released by the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) on Dec. 29 recommends grounding a “small number” of aircraft assessed to be at higher risk, a JPO spokesman says. A return to flight order will come after procedures are developed to reduce the risk.
The JPO released the TCTD two days after suspending deliveries of the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine to the program’s assembly lines in Fort Worth and Cameri, Italy.
The JPO has not released the reasons for the TCTD and the engine delivery suspension.
But the timing of both moves are linked to an ongoing investigation by Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) of the Dec. 15 crash of an F-35B during a predelivery check flight in Fort Worth. Any technical faults identified during the course of an investigation are immediately acted upon, while NAVAIR investigators continue probing other factors in a search for the root cause.
Video footage showed the F-35B making a vertical descent to land, but the aircraft bounced forward after touching the ground. The aft section then rose upward, which caused the nose gear to drive into the runway and collapse. Now tilting on its right wingtip, the jet spun across the runway counterclockwise 180 deg., then reversed direction by about 45 deg. As the aircraft came to a stop, the pilot ejected and sustained only light injuries.
Lockheed owned the F-35B at the time of the incident.
The F-35 program also continues to suspend flight operations at the Lockheed plant in Fort Worth. The suspension forced the company to miss its delivery goal for the year by seven jets, with 141 handed over to all customers in 2022 instead of the original goal of 148-153.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington.
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Opinion: The F-35 Is At The Center Of Hard And Soft Power
Aviation Week - Michael Cisek January 05, 2023
Late last year, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun publicly stated that a new clean-sheet aircraft would not be released this decade. This news came as Boeing, formerly the world’s largest aerospace company, is awaiting FAA certification of its 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10, and many are wondering if those certifications will happen at all. Additionally, Boeing has continued to report multibillion-dollar losses on its defense programs such as the KC-46 tanker, VC-25B presidential transport, MQ-25 uncrewed aerial refueler and T-7A trainer. With the aerospace giant seemingly in pause mode, is it fair to ask what other programs will play a crucial role in helping the United States maintain its position as the world aerospace leader.
The answer may not lie not on the commercial side but rather on the defense side, specifically with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. AeroDynamic Advisory estimates that the direct economic impact of the F-35 program on the U.S. economy is approximately $34 billion annually. This includes money spent on internal manufacturing and final assembly activities as well as direct spending with multiple tiers of suppliers and a broad range of sustainment activities. These activities in turn spur $38 billion of indirect economic activity, the money that flows out into the broader nonaerospace economy. There are four reasons the F-35 will underpin the U.S. aerospace industry in this turbulent period.
• With an aggregate economic impact of $72 billion, the F-35 program is a boon to aerospace suppliers. These suppliers conduct numerous activities including production, maintenance, engineering, training and supply chain management.
• During commercial downturns, defense aircraft production can be a crucial source of revenue to suppliers. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, suppliers that have increased exposure to military platforms have weathered the crisis better than those that are commercially oriented. Already under a capital crunch from an expected single-aisle ramp-up and commercial payment terms as long as 120 days, defense prime contractors threw these suppliers a lifeline—including payment terms as short as 15 days. Lockheed Martin has signaled that it intends to cap production at 156 aircraft per year for the foreseeable future, so suppliers can at least count on steady F-35 production for about another decade.
• The F-35 export market is robust and growing in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s expanding military capability. Finland and Switzerland have agreed to buy 100 aircraft during the past year, while Canada has ordered 88 jets. Germany also has been approved for F-35 acquisition, and countries including Greece and the Czech Republic have entered into negotiations with Lockheed Martin after selecting the F-35 to replace fighters in their current fleets. This could persuade more countries to sign onto the ever-growing program. In fact, Lockheed’s cap of 156 aircraft produced per year is driven purely by the supply chain. Should the U.S. decide to purchase fewer aircraft each year, there would appear to be more than enough international demand to make up the difference.
• This increasing interest from allied countries leads to the final factor that can help the F-35 drive U.S. aerospace growth: interoperability. As more European countries opt for the F-35, often at the expense of indigenous options, demand likely will continue to increase. The U.S. would benefit, as it strengthens its security ties to nations that operate the F-35 and can include them in training exercises. U.S. suppliers also would benefit, as they gain access to lucrative maintenance and training markets.
In the wake of Russian aggression, the F-35 market can be an avenue to strengthening the ties among NATO countries and a way for the U.S. to play a role in advancing democracy. In fact, the F-35 is essentially in the center of a Venn diagram of hard power and soft power.
With the commercial aircraft production ramp-up still on hold and Boeing facing an uncertain future, the F-35 program can provide a useful foundation for American aerospace manufacturing into the next decade.
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Michael Cisek is a senior advisor at AeroDynamic Advisory.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/supply-chain/opinion-f-35-center-hard-soft-power
China, Russia Conduct First Bomber Landaways
Aviation Week - Chen Chuanren December 02, 2022
SINGAPORE—Chinese and Russian air forces have conducted the first so-called landaways with their bomber forces, with video showing Russian Tupolev Tu-95MS Bear turboprop bombers landing at an unspecified base near Shanghai and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Xian H-6K bombers touching down at an unspecified base in Russia.
The landaways followed a scheduled joint patrol mission in North Asia.
The Russian ministry of defense said the Tu-95MS departed Ukrainka Air Base at Amur Oblast and was in the air for 8 hr., escorted by Sukhoi Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters in certain segment of the flight.
The Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) and Republic of Korea Air Force scrambled fighters as the aircraft entered their respective air defense identification zones. Russian defense ministry videos show JASDF F-15Js, a U.S. Air Force F-22A and unidentified F-35s shadowing the formation.
Japan’s ministry of defense reported a pair of Tu-95MS, a pair of H-6Ks and two Shenyang J-16 fighters flying together over the East China Sea.
Chinese state television also revealed that the J-16s were supported by PLAAF’s new YY-20 tankers, which provided aerial refueling during the mission.
While such joint patrol flights are not new, the landaways at the respective bases signal an elevated level of cooperation between the two militaries, going beyond tactical flying to include collaboration in areas of air traffic and ground logistics. It will be worth observing how both parties will further integrate their bomber operations, which could possibly see joint air-to-air refueling of assets moving forward.
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Chen Chuanren
Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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Ukrainian Conflict Holds Lessons On Dispersal, Munitions: Think Tank
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne December 01, 2022
LONDON—Lessons around basing, munitions, and uncrewed aircraft systems are emerging from the Russia-Ukraine war that European air forces should take heed of, a new report from a London-based think tank suggests.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has confirmed the threat posed from long-range fires such as ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as the urgent need for enlarged stockpiles of weapons.
In an examination of the conflict produced by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), researchers found that only dispersal of the Ukrainian Air Force’s fighter assets ensured that they could maintain operations.
“Despite the technical overmatch of the VKS (Russian Air Force), the training conducted by the air force prior to 24 February played a role in ensuring its survivability,” says the report, written by British and Ukrainian researchers Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds. Special attention, they said, was paid to the training of maintenance crews to carry out preparation of the aircraft in field conditions.
These efforts were necessary. In the first days of the war, Russia undertook a massive missile campaign against Ukrainian air defense command-and-control infrastructure, airfields and ammunition depots, but they failed to follow up with bomb damage assessments.
“The Russian military appears to have presumed that if an action had been ordered and carried out then it had succeeded, unless there was direct evidence to the contrary,” the report says.
These issues subsequently made the Russian military highly vulnerable to deception, resulting in considerable wasting of ammunition and “a presumption of success” which prompted them to take “unjustifiable risks,” including aircraft not flying with electronic warfare pods and equipment.
The Russian long-range strikes, RUSI states, mean that there is “no sanctuary in modern warfare” and that “survivability depends on dispersing ammunitions stocks, command and control, maintenance areas and aircraft.”
This, the researchers say, prompts questions about how well dispersed European air forces can be, given shortfalls in deployable spares packs and the increasing reliance of modern aircraft on software.
Munition stocks are another concern, and while the report has focused particularly on supplies of artillery shells, it notes that no other country in NATO, apart from the U.S., has sufficient initial weapons stocks for warfighting or the industrial capacity to sustain large-scale operations. This must be rectified, the report says, if deterrence is to be credible.
“Resilience demands a capacity to build new units, produce spare parts and ammunition, and have sufficient stockpiles to remain competitive in the opening phases of fighting,” the authors state.
“At present, it is evident that NATO members other than the U.S. are not in a strong position on these fronts,” they say.
The report also prompts questions around the use of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) after RUSI found that attrition levels were high. Indeed, as much as 90% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces UAS inventory was destroyed in the first months of the war, including the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 tactical UAS. The average life expectancy for a multicopter UAS was roughly three flights, while a fixed-wing system might survive around six flights. Skilled crews who would preprogram the flightpaths of the UAS’ to use terrain masking could extend the life of their platforms. The report suggests use of the TB2s, for example, was shifted toward armed intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance of coastal areas, where they had success against Russian fast-attack craft.
RUSI urges nations to heed lessons from the conflict, particularly around resilience and munition stocks. As Ukraine expends significant ammunition stocks to push back the Russians, they are now largely dependent on Western allies for equipment.
“It is important that those partners draw the appropriate lessons from the war so far, not least so that they can prepare themselves to deter future threats and to best support Ukraine,” the report concludes.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Pentagon Sending New Undisclosed Air Defense Systems To Ukraine
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine December 09, 2022
The Pentagon is sending Ukraine new air defenses and an undisclosed counter air defense capability as part of the latest, $275 million package of aid announced Dec. 9.
The new package, the 27th drawdown of U.S. military equipment directed by President Joe Biden, brings the total amount of aid provided to Ukraine to more than $19.3 billion since Russia’s invasion began in February.
“This security assistance package will provide Ukraine with new capabilities to boost its air defenses in addition to providing critical equipment that Ukraine is using so effectively to defend itself on the battlefield,” the Pentagon said in an announcement.
The announcement generically says it includes a “counter air defense capability,” a phrase not used in any prior aid announcement. The U.S. has announced specific counter air defense systems before—the delivery of an undisclosed number of AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles. A fact sheet released Dec. 9 lists this new counter air defense capability as separate from the HARMs that have been delivered.
The package also includes undisclosed counter-uncrewed aircraft systems equipment. Specific weapons announced includes more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 80,000 155mm artillery rounds, High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle ambulances, 150 generators and field equipment.
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Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Airbus UpNext Autonomous Aerial Refueling Test Planned For Mid-2023
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne December 14, 2022
MADRID—Airbus is to begin exploring more autonomous aerial refueling capability through its UpNext technology accelerator.
Flight testing in the Auto’Mate project, UpNext’s first defense research project, will see a DT-25 target drone flying in close formation with Airbus’ A310 multi-role tanker transport (MRTT) demonstrator aircraft during mid-2023.
The aim is to move toward what Airbus calls Autonomous Assets Air-to-Air Refueling (A4R), building on the company’s experience in developing an Automatic Air-to-Air Refueling (A3R) system for its A330 MRTT, which was certified for daylight operation during the summer. The A3R system was developed in collaboration with the Singaporean Air Force.
“A4R is about gaining more autonomy in order to have more operational safety, greater reliability and more efficiency in aerial refueling,” Manuel Barriopedro, the head of Airbus’ autonomous air-to-air refueling demonstrator project, told journalists here Dec. 12.
The trials will explore uncrewed air system control from the A310 using different communications technologies, as well as artificial intelligence for control and high-precision satellite navigation for positioning. There are no plans to refuel the drones from the tanker.
“This is about shaping the future of air-to-air refueling and cooperative control algorithms and help us consider future defense operations,” Barriopedro said. Among the advantages of A4R could be to reduce the size of the tanker crew, speed up the pace of refueling and enable extended-range operations of the remote carrier uncrewed air systems associated with the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) being developed by France, Germany, and Spain. Alternatively, it could enable tankers to take a greater role as a control node in the aerial battle, a role hinted at by company executives.
Barriopedro said the aim was to fly the drone as close as possible to the A310.
Joining the DT-25 will be a further five simulated drones as part of the experiments.
“This will pave the way for A4R, UpNext as an accelerator of technologies will help use pursue this quickly and help us decide which technologies are useful and which ones are not,” Barriopedro said.
Airbus is now pursuing night-time certification for the A3R technology on the A330 and hopes to broaden the number of receivers the system is compatible with. The A3R system uses image-recognition algorithms to confirm the type of aircraft and the position of the receiver aircraft’s refueling receptacle. Once the system has determined when the receiver is in the correct pre-contact position underneath the tanker to allow refueling to take place, the boom operator can use one of two A3R modes. Semi-automatic mode positions the boom over the receptacle and the boom operator then decides whether to plug the boom into the receptacle. Fully automatic mode carries out the whole process, with oversight from the boom operator.
The A3R system can position the boom correctly in seconds, whereas a human operator generally takes much longer, Airbus aerial refueling experts suggest.
Development of the A3R and A4R systems are part of the ongoing roadmap of development for the MRTT platform, which also includes enhancing the aircraft’s self-protection capabilities and its connectivity. The self-protection capability could be important if the aircraft plays that more crucial role as a node in the FCAS system of systems.
The capabilities are emerging as more countries eye the potential of the MRTT. Airbus now has 66 firm orders for MRTTs from 14 nations. While many of these are conversions from new-build, green A330-200 airframes, air forces are increasingly buying second-hand airframes from commercial airlines. During Aerospace DAILY’s visit to Airbus’ Getafe conversion line, the company was converting the first of three ex-Iberia A330s for the Spanish Air Force and one green airframe for the French Air Force, its 12th aircraft. Fifty-four aircraft have been delivered and the company believes there is a potential market for up to 90 MRTTs, not including the U.S. Other potential customers include Brazil, which has purchased A330 airframes ready for conversion to MRTT configuration but has not yet signed a contract. Another is Turkey, which wishes to replace its aging Boeing KC-135Rs. Canada is also in the frame as it wants to replace its older A310 MRTTs with a new platform. Ottawa has only shortlisted Airbus to provide tanker aircraft.
Airbus officials remain hopeful that they will get the chance to compete the aircraft again in the U.S. through the potential KC-Y tanker program known as Bridge Tanker, offering the MRTT in conjunction with Lockheed Martin. A decision about whether KC-Y will be a competition is expected in the coming months.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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How A Soviet-Era Reconnaissance UAS Became A Cruise Missile
Aviation Week - Piotr Butowski December 15, 2022
On Dec. 5, Russia planned a series of air strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, similar to others it had conducted periodically. Tupolev Tu-95MS bombers and Tu-22M3 bombers—from Russia’s Engels and Dyagilevo air bases, respectively—were preparing to attack that day.
But at 6:04 a.m. local time, according to a recording from a city surveillance camera at Engels, explosions rocked the air base.
Located just east of the Volga River, Engels houses the 121st Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, which includes 16 Tu-160 and about 20 Tu-95MS strategic bombers. Initial social media posts said that a fuel truck standing next to the aircraft had been hit and that two Tu- 95MS bombers were destroyed in the explosion.
• How a Soviet-era reconnaissance UAS became a cruise missile
• Explosions occurred hundreds of miles inside Russia in early December
A satellite image published by Planet shows one Tu-95MS aircraft next to what appear to be burn marks and firefighting foam.
The strike was likely the handiwork of a Ukrainian Tupolev Tu-141, a Soviet-era reconnaissance uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) that was refashioned into a cruise missile.
But how could Ukraine hit targets hundreds of miles from its borders, deep in Russian territory? In addition to the strike at Engels, another took place at Dyagilevo air base, located near Ryazan, southeast of Moscow. The 43rd Center for Combat Application and Training of Aircrew for Long-Range Aviation there includes several Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers as well as Tu-134 and Antonov An-26 training aircraft.
Leaked photos posted on the internet on the evening of Dec. 5 picture a Tu-22M3 bomber at Dyagilevo with a damaged rear part of the fuselage, engines and tailplanes. Judging from the RF-34110 registration, the aircraft belonged to a unit in Shaykovka.
In the photo, an APA-80 vehicle—a generator providing power to the aircraft—stands next to the Tu-22M3 bomber, which has a heavy Kh-22 or Kh-32 missile suspended under the wing. This indicates the aircraft was being prepared for a combat flight.
On Dec. 6, again at 6 a.m. local time, another strike on a Russian airfield took place, this time at the Kursk-Khalino air base, and the fire it caused burned for hours.
The 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment, with Sukhoi Su-30SM fighters, is stationed in Kursk, about 100 km (62 mi.) from the Ukrainian border. A group of Su-35S fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft also are deployed there. This attack was the most successful of all.
Ukraine’s preemptive strikes on airfields did not prevent Russia from launching an air strike against Ukraine in the early afternoon of Dec. 5. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that “the massive strike was carried out despite the attempts of the Ukrainian side to disrupt the combat work of Russian long-range aviation.” All 17 designated targets were hit by air-launched and naval missiles.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry says Russia fired 70 missiles that day, of which “more than 60” were shot down. Eight Engels-based Tu-95MS strategic bombers, flying over the Caspian Sea and over the Rostov Oblast in Russia, fired 38 Kh-101/Ch-555 cruise missiles, while ships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet fired 22 Kalibr cruise missiles. Tu-22M3 bombers flying over the Black Sea attacked with three Kh-22 missiles, while tactical aircraft fired six Kh-59 missiles and one Kh-31P.
What is THE Tu-141?
Ukraine has not confirmed that its armed forces carried out the attacks against these Russian long-range aviation bases. Then again, it did not confirm the Oct. 8 attack on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with Russia or other attacks. But there is little doubt Ukraine was behind the attacks.
“[Ukraine] attempted to strike with Soviet-made jet drones against Dyagilevo and Engels airfields,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. “Ukrainian drones flying at low altitude were intercepted.”
Three Russian soldiers were killed and four injured by “pieces from Ukrainian drones,” the ministry said. The reference to “Soviet-made jet drones” points to one specific type: the Tu-141 Strizh (Swift) UAS. It is the only UAS available in Ukraine with the capability to perform such an attack.
The Tu-141, part of the VR-2 Strizh reconnaissance system, is a theater-level UAS for reconnaissance missions as far as several hundred kilometers behind the front line. Its design began in 1968, along with the similar but much smaller Tu-143. The Tu-141 made its first flight in December 1974. From 1978 to 1990, a manufacturing facility in Kharkiv, Ukraine, produced 152 of the aircraft. A plant in Kumertau, Russia, produced 950 of the smaller Tu-143s.
The Tu-141 takes off from a wheeled platform with the help of rocket accelerators. It has a range of 1,000 km along a preprogrammed route, with several turning points and altitude changes, overcoming air defenses at low altitude, from 50 m (165 ft.), at a speed of 1,100 kph (685 mph).
To convert the reconnaissance UAS into a cruise missile, the Ukrainians would have had to replace the guidance system. The missile is likely guided by inertial navigation, perhaps with updates via satellite navigation. This is the simplest variant. They likely also installed a warhead in place of reconnaissance equipment. The Tu-141 weighs 5,370 kg (12,000 lb.), which makes it possible to estimate the weight of the combat load as 500-1,000 kg.
Tu-141s have been used by Ukraine on other missions in this war, so it would not be surprising for Ukraine to have used them to hit military airfields deep in Russia. On March 10, an “unknown object,” which turned out to be a Ukrainian Tu-141, crashed in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia; undoubtedly the aircraft’s navigation failed. On March 11, another Ukrainian Tu-141 crashed or was shot down over Crimea. On May 6, the remains of a smaller Tu-143 Reys were found in the Kharkiv region. On June 28 and then on July 3, Ukrainian Tu-143 drones unsuccessfully attacked targets in the Kursk region.
The Russians appear to have used a Tu-143 Reys on April 11, probably as a decoy target to initiate Ukrainian air defenses.
Was that a Tu-141?
However, Russia’s assertions do not constitute proof that the attacks on Russian military airfields were conducted by Tu-141 Strizh UAS.
Ukraine also recently declared that it was close to implementing its own long-range uncrewed system. The country has the qualifications and technical capabilities to build an advanced uncrewed system, including a strike one. Its design and production facilities can manufacture airframes and engines, as well as mission equipment and air-launched weapons.
The Ukrainian strike on military airfields deep in Russia will change the nature of this war—all previous attacks had been in close proximity. The ease with which these missiles flew several hundred kilometers over Russian territory and attacked strategic air bases, which are part of the Russian nuclear triad, certainly has to be concerning to the Russians.
The attack on Ryazan also is of great psychological importance. Just look at the map: The route from northern Ukraine to Dyagilevo is not much different from the route to Moscow.
Note: Attacks on Dyagilevo, Engels and Kursk-Khalino took place on Dec. 5 and 6.
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Piotr Butowski
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China Teases New Bomber, But Timing Remains Unclear
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble October 13, 2022
A new combat aircraft with “strategic and historical” significance to the Chinese military was close to an important flight-test event in July.
The Global Times, a daily newspaper published by the Chinese Communist Party, quoted Ge Heping, the political commissar of the Chinese Flight Test Establishment, as urging his staff to work harder to achieve the milestone test. The identity of the new aircraft has not been confirmed.
Beijing has made a number of advances in the last two decades on the combat aircraft front. Nearly a dozen years ago, the first Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter broke cover during high-speed taxi tests. The first images of the Xian Y-20 airlifter emerged a decade ago, and the first flight of the Harbin Z-20 utility helicopter took place more than nine years ago.
• Timing of H-20 program still a mystery
• Zhuhai event to feature Tiangong space station replica
As the 14th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, also known as Airshow China 2022, prepares to open in Zhuhai on Nov. 8, the status of the fourth, final and possibly most interesting of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) “20-series” military aircraft remains unknown: the Xian H-20 stealth bomber.
Speculation about the timing of a public debut for the long-range strategic bomber has been circulating for years. A meeting of Chinese military leaders concluded in 2015 that the PLAAF needs such an aircraft. In 2016, Gen. Ma Xiaotian, the then-PLAAF commander, publicly confirmed that China was developing a new bomber. Avic, the manufacturer, teased the program’s imminent debut at the end of a May 2018 promotional video. The U.S. military has acknowledged the program’s existence, saying in a 2020 report to Congress that the “advanced bomber” may not enter service for a decade.
The scheduled rollout of the North-rop Grumman B-21 Raider in December comes a month after Airshow China, giving the PLAAF and Avic a public stage on which to steal the spotlight from the U.S. Air Force’s new stealth bomber.
But there is scant evidence that the Chinese plan to seize the opportunity. Despite Ge’s comments suggesting an imminent first flight of something in July, no confirmation from any program, including the H-20, has appeared in the intervening time.
The press conference prior to Airshow China in Zhuhai on Sept. 27 prompted another wave of speculation. A Chinese journalist asked the PLAAF spokesman, Senior Col. Shen Jinke, about whether a new member of the “20-series” aircraft family could appear in the static display. Shen replied that the PLAAF would display new achievements in “long-range strategic delivery,” along with equipment the audience “has never seen before,” the Global Times reported.
A new bomber qualifies as a long-range aircraft capable of “strategic delivery,” but there are other options. Shen’s comments also could be interpreted as referring to the Xian Y-20U, a refueling variant of the indigenous airlifter that might support the H-20 bomber on long-range missions. Chinese state media “unveiled” the Y-20U in July, showing the tanker refueling fighters during predeployment training. The aircraft made a public debut in late August at the Changchun Airshow in northeast China.
An air show also is an unlikely venue for a public unveiling. Some aircraft, such as the Y-20, appeared at Zhuhai within two years of first visual evidence of the program’s existence. But most Chinese military aircraft are revealed in photographs long before they appear at an air show.
For example, the J-20 first appeared at Zhuhai in 2016, which came nearly five years after the twin-engine fighter entered flight testing. The PL-15 missile was officially unveiled at Zhuhai in 2018, which also came five years after the first photographs of the long-range air-to-air weapon appeared. Last year, China showed off the Shenyang J-16D for the first time. The 2021 Zhuhai event had been delayed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but if the show had been held as scheduled, the electronic warfare aircraft also would have made its debut five years after its first flight.
Instead, the event is expected to reveal progress across China’s aviation and space industry. The Chinese government has confirmed it will display a full-scale replica of the roughly 100-ton Tiangong Space Station for the first time.
Future Chinese Military Aircraft
H-20 Strategic Bomber
Official U.S. sources expect a stealthy, flying-wing, subsonic bomber to become operational by the end of this decade. Avic, the manufacturer, has said the project was officially launched in 2008, but concept development activity likely began in the 1990s. In November 2016, then-PLAAF commander, Gen. Ma Xiaotian, officially confirmed the existence of the program, saying a long-range bomber was in development. Since then, Avic has teased the shape of the aircraft in brochures and advertisements, with a veil shrouding an aircraft shaped generally like a Northrop Grumman B-2. The aircraft’s actual shape has not been released.
JH-XX Tactical Bomber
This is a long-rumored concept for a possibly stealthy, supersonic medium bomber to complement the Xian H-20. Although never officially confirmed, images of unidentified concepts sometimes linked to the JH-XX have appeared since 2011. A “fighter-bomber” developmental project appeared in the 2019 China Military Power report published by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. The report described the bomber as having an active, electronically scanned array radar; long-range air-to-air missiles; and precision-guided munitions, but it lacked sources or citations.
J-?? Next-Generation Fighter
A sixth-generation fighter will enter service by 2035 or earlier, said Wang Haifeng, chief designer at Chengdu Aircraft Research and Design Institute, in January 2019 interview with the Xian-based journal Ordnance Industry Science Technology. Such an aircraft may have improved stealth, adaptive engines, laser weapons and hypersonic missiles, Wang added. Although some analysts believe China’s next fighter will replace the lightweight J-10, Yang Wei, chief designer of the Chengdu J-20, has proposed an alternative vision. In an essay published in July 2020 by Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, a monthly Chinese journal, Yang wrote that a future fighter jet will generally require greater stealth, endurance, range and weapons load than current aircraft. The next-generation fighter also will collect so much information, Yang said, that artificial intelligence algorithms will be needed to make sense of the data for the pilot.
Y-19/Y-30 Tactical Airlift
Various concepts have appeared of a long-term replacement for the Shaanxi Y-8/Y-9 transport fleet, which is derived from the late-1950s-era Antonov An-12. The Y-19 may be a twin-turboprop replacement based on the proposed WJ-10 engine, according to some sources. Alternatively, Avic showed off a concept at the 2014 Zhuhai Airshow of a four-engine, 130,000-lb. airlifter called the Y-30.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Joint Qatari-UK World Cup Defense Helps Clinch Eurofighter Deal
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne October 14, 2022
Football fans gathering in Qatar during November and December to cheer on their national teams in the FIFA World Cup likely will be blissfully unaware of the enormous security operation that has been developed to protect them.
Part of the Arabian Gulf state’s much enlarged armed forces will be devoted to the event’s security, and they will be supported by a joint UK-Qatari fighter squadron flying the Eurofighter Typhoon through Project Thariyat (Arabic for “Typhoon”), a spinoff from Qatar’s £6 billion ($6.7 billion) acquisition of 24 Eurofighters agreed to in December 2017.
• Qatar received first Eurofighter batch in the summer
• Aerial-refueling service provided through UK-Qatar agreement
Creation of the joint Royal Air Force (RAF) and Qatar Emiri Air Force (QEAF) unit—12 Sqdn.—in 2018, the RAF’s first joint squadron since World War II, is one of several pillars of the UK’s Qatar Air Programs initiative that appears to have helped seal the Typhoon deal and has become central to strengthening UK-Qatari defense ties.
Another pillar of the program is the creation of a second joint squadron, flying BAE Systems Hawk jet trainers, based in the UK but dedicated to training Qatari fighter pilots. The UK also is providing Qatar an air-to-air refueling service with one of its Airbus A330 Voyager Multi-Role Tanker Transport aircraft through a series of six 10-day deployments during 2021 and 2022. That service has allowed QEAF pilots—primarily from Dassault Rafale squadrons—to perform aerial refueling training, as Qatar lacks its own tanker capability.
After qualifying as pilots through Doha’s air force academy, the Qatari pilots complete the UK training system with English language and basic UK flight-training courses to enable them to become comfortable with flying in the UK before they fly the Hawk and the Typhoon.
“These initiatives are part of a deepening UK-Qatari relationship,” Air Cmdre. Richard Yates, the RAF’s senior officer responsible for the Qatar Air Program, tells Aviation Week. “Qatar is an impressive, technically adept and ambitious nation. Its air force has grown quickly, becoming highly technically competent. And, importantly, they like what they see with Typhoon.”
One goal of the joint unit is for Qatari crews to gain 2-3 years of Typhoon flying experience before they receive their first aircraft, Yates adds. This enables Qatar to make operational use of its first batch of Typhoons, which were delivered during the summer, flying them alongside the joint RAF-Qatari unit in support of World Cup security.
In the UK, Qatari Typhoon pilots are trained in the full multirole capabilities of the aircraft, says Sqdn. Ldr. Luke Wilkinson, 12 Sqdn.’s executive officer and a pilot on the unit. Qatari Typhoons are equipped with largely the same weaponry as the RAF’s, including the MBDA advanced short-range air-to-air missile and Meteor air-to-air missiles. The Qatari fighters also carry the Lockheed Martin Sniper targeting pod, which was selected for commonality among the country’s three fighter fleets. The new-build aircraft being delivered to the QEAF are fitted with the European Common Radar System Mk. 0 active, electronically scanned array radar, too, whereas the RAF-owned Typhoons flown by the joint unit carry the mechanically scanned sensor.
Training on the radar is provided through what Wilkinson calls a delta training package provided by BAE Systems, although the radar is operated through the Eurofighter’s human-machine interface in the same way as it is for the mechanically scanned array.
Yates says this UK approach to partnership could be extended to future Eurofighter exports and perhaps eventually the Tempest Future Combat Air System.
The joint squadron has been deployed and is ready for World Cup security operations and training with the QEAF from the newly constructed Al-Dukhan Airbase in the west of Qatar for up to six months. The future of 12 Sqdn. beyond the deployment is under discussion.
Qatari fighter pilots are slated to train with the Hawk squadron in the UK for the next six years, with options for another six years. The RAF will train its own fighter pilots through the unit as well, allowing it to raise training output at a time when it has been facing criticism over pilot training delays. The aerial refueling service may continue too, potentially paving the way for Qatar to invest in its own tanker capability.
Qatar’s Eurofighter order follows contracts with France for the Dassault Rafale and with the U.S. for Boeing’s F-15QA “Ababil” Advanced Eagle. This three-pronged fleet of 96 aircraft is meant to replace Doha’s Dassault Mirage 2000 force, growing the country’s fighter inventory eightfold.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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South Korean KF-21 Fighter Performs Well In Flight Tests
Aviation Week - Guy Norris October 04, 2022
ANAHEIM, California—The Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) KF-21 Boramae multirole fighter is performing well in initial flight tests and matching handling qualities predicted by modeling simulations, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) evaluation team says.
The twin-engine fighter made its first flight from Sacheon, South Korea, on July 19 and is scheduled to attain initial air-to-air operational capability in 2026. Slightly smaller and lighter than the Boeing F/A-18E/F, the KF-21 uses a version of the same General Electric F414-400 engine, which gives the aircraft a thrust-to-weight ratio comparable to the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Targeting high maneuverability throughout the subsonic and transonic speed ranges, the KF-21 has a lower wing loading than the Lockheed Martin F-35 at equivalent thrust. The behavior of the flight control system and associated stability and control augmentation system therefore forms a key focus for the initial part of the Block 1 test and evaluation (T&E) program.
Divided into two main phases running through early 2026, the first KF-21 T&E phase has been divided into two tracks during which operational and development testing and evaluation (OT&E/DT&E) will be conducted virtually in parallel. The first DT&E phase began in March 2021–more than a year before first flight—and is scheduled to wrap up in August 2023. The OT&E effort, which began in June 2021, is due to be completed at the same time after running for 27 months.
Pending successful tests and an operational assessment that summer, the program will enter a what ROKAF describes as a “full-up” flight test phase. Running through early 2026, the intensive follow-up T&E flight test effort will again comprise parallel OT&E and DT&E phases—both of which are due to end in February of that year after a 30-month period.
Commenting on the early success of the test campaign at the Society of Experimental Test Pilots’ annual symposium here, members of the ROKAF’s 52nd Test and Evaluation Group estimate that the entire Block 1 program will involve more than 2,000 test flights, of which roughly 1,700 will occur during the follow-up T&E phase. This is scheduled to conclude with a second operational assessment in early 2026.
The KF-21’s triplex digital flight control system is designed around a nonlinear dynamic inversion (NDI) control law architecture. Like the system developed for the F-35, the NDI control combination is designed to provide a predictable response to a commanded trajectory, and control loops shape the response as desired.
In the run-up to flight tests, control system and components have been—and continue to be—evaluated and verified using a combination of an “iron bird” ground test rig and a maneuverability analysis simulator or handling quality system (HQS). Gradually assembled from early 2016 onward, the ground rig and HQS developed a model against which the initial flight test results could be assessed, says Lt. Col. Seong Bin Park, commander of the 52nd Test and Evaluation Group’s 281 Flight Test Sqn.
“The critical point was the HQS and how it reacted on the first flight,” says Park, who adds it was “our biggest concern.” However, initial handling qualities after takeoff were found to be so close to the HQS predictions that “we talked to the test pilot and decided to cancel a planned practice landing at 5,000 ft. When we ended the first flight, the happiest were the HQS engineers because the results were very similar to what they expected.”
Responding to questions about why the first flight was conducted with four MBDA Meteor air-to-air missiles mounted semi-recessed into the lower fuselage, Park says “our first plan was to test in clean configuration, but because of budget and the timeline, saving time was critical for the ROKAF.” He adds that the low-drag missile installation was “actually comparable to a clean configuration, so we decided to go into the most basic way of doing the first flight. Results and timeline mattered, so we decided to go with the missiles.”
Initial Block I flight tests will continue to focus on envelope expansion as well as the baseline flight control modes. These include the air-to-air “up and away” mode; power approach mode for landing and an air-refueling mode. The control laws also incorporate envelope protection with low-speed warning and angle-of-attack limiter functions. The KF-21 flight control system also includes a reconfigurable control function to enable continued stable flight in the event of the failure of control surface actuators, an engine or air data sensors.
Block I also will include tests of a pilot-activated recovery system as a prelude to test and development of an automatic ground collision avoidance system during Block II. “For this phase the objective is to conduct full air-to-air and air-to-ground combat operational capabilities,” says Maj. Younjae Choi of the 281 Flight Test Sqn. Planning for Block II, which will also include tests of an automatic terrain following system, is now complete, he adds.
The overall test campaign will involve eight prototype KF-21s, including two airframes for static and fatigue ground tests. Of the six flying aircraft, four are single-seaters and two are two-seaters. In addition, KAI plans to produce an initial batch of 40 Block I production aircraft that will be targeted at air-to-air missions and some limited air-to-ground missions. For Block II, the company is gearing up to produce 80 aircraft with full air-to-ground capability that will be delivered from 2028.
Beyond this, ROKAF is studying a potential upgraded Block III variant, while KAI has recently outlined a possible carrier-capable KF-21N variant.
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Guy Norris
Guy is a Senior Editor for Aviation Week, covering technology and propulsion. He is based in Colorado Springs.
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Australia’s Pitch Black Air Exercise Grows
Aviation Week - Chen Chuanren September 07, 2022
Pitch Black is the Southern Hemisphere’s largest tactical air exercise, held in Darwin, Australia, on the nation’s northern edge. After a hiatus of four years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Pitch Black returned this year larger than ever, with 16 countries and around 100 aircraft included. New participants included Germany, Japan and South Korea, along with regular attendees Indonesia, Singapore and the U.S.
The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force sent five Mitsubishi F-2s to Australia.
A composite crew of Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and U.S. Air Force air battle managers were part of the RAAF Boeing E-7A Wedgetail No. 2 Sqdn.
RAAF EA-18G Growlers approached an Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) for air-to-air refueling.
An Australian Lockheed Martin F-35A prepared for tanking with an Airbus A330 MRTT.
A pair of Republic of Singapore Air Force F-16D+ Block 52 fighters carried the Raytheon Enhanced Paveway II laser-guided bomb.
The French Air and Space Force deployed three Dassault Rafales for the exercise, which included a hop to its Pacific territory of New Caledonia
The German Air Force deployed to Exercise Pitch Black for the first time, bringing its colorful Eurofighter Typhoon.
Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30MKIs of 20 Sqdn. participated in Exercise Pitch Black for the second time.
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Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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New U.S. Navy Weapons Plan Favors Speed Over Range
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine September 19, 2022
The U.S. Navy’s plans for its future weapons have centered on one critical capability: range.
In a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, ships and carrier-based aircraft would have to engage advanced enemy targets from long distances, especially since China continues to develop advanced long-distance missiles. But that focus is not enough. For the immediate future, the Navy says greater range is useless if a missile is slow because the speed of these weapons is becoming more important.
• AIM-9X and AIM-120 upgrades scheduled ahead of AIM-260
• Competition for HALO contract is emerging
“We need to increase range, but we also need increased speed,” Cmdr. Garth Blakely, aviation weapons officer at the Office of Naval Operations, said on Sept. 10 during the annual Tailhook Association Symposium held outside Reno, Nevada. “We may potentially need increased speed more than increased range at this point.”
As Vice Adm. Kenneth Whitesell, commander of the Naval Air Forces, argues: Do not lose sight on improving the current weapons while making longer-term plans. He added that the U.S. military is rapidly approaching the “Davidson Window”—the warning laid out by former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Adm. Phil Davidson that China could attack Taiwan by 2027.
“While I’m concentrating on the range of the weapons with the capability of the weapons, the guidance to end game of the weapons, don’t lose sight on the weapons that you’re producing right now and the upgrades to your capabilities that we have right now,” Whitesell said at Tailhook. “We have some capabilities, we’re going to have some game in the fight.”
To that end, the Navy and Raytheon Technologies are working on more upgrades to the AIM-9Xs and AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (Amraam) that can be delivered before the Lockheed Martin AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) is ready. That move is needed “not only to survive but to establish what we know will be required for our primary mission of maritime strike—temporal air superiority,” Blakely said.
For AIM-9X, the Navy is working with Raytheon on the current Block II missile’s system improvement package (SIP) III, which increases the reliability and replaces high-fail parts, Blakely said. The Navy and Raytheon are also developing a follow-on SIP IV to “increase the lethality capability” of the missile, he added.
The Navy is expanding its capacity on the latest Raytheon AIM-120D Amraams: The largest contract in the program’s history was announced in early September. The $972 million deal includes the U.S. along with foreign military sales to 19 other nations. The Navy and Raytheon are working on the SIP III variant of the missile, while simultaneously developing a follow-on SIP IV “refresh of the system” that will improve its ability to target threats across a wide spectrum. This will help bridge the gap as the Navy looks ahead to the Lockheed AIM-260 JATM, along with the Air Force.
“The biggest thing of all is the capacity issue,” Blakely said. “We’re very aware of it, and we’re looking at the cost of what we can possibly do to increase that depth of magazine and get the warfighters on the front line what they need when the time comes.”
For the air-to-surface mission, the Navy and Lockheed Martin are planning to reach initial operational capability for the latest AGM-158 C-1 Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) in 2023, which will increase the range of the cruise missile; further LRASM C-3 upgrades will follow. These efforts are laying the groundwork for the follow-on Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive Anti
Surface Warfare Weapon Increment II (HALO).
The Navy disclosed its HALO effort in a budget request earlier this year, and the service is now looking for companies to start building prototypes in fiscal 2023. The Navy needs a hypersonic anti-ship missile that is small enough to fit in a carrier-based aircraft without striking the deck and one that can fit in the aircraft carrier’s weapons elevator. The service has budgeted $444 million between 2023 and 2027 for this development; a request for proposals is expected in 2023.
At Tailhook, Boeing unveiled for the first time a model of its hypersonic solid-fuel ramjet missile, previously called the Supersonic Propulsion Enabled Advanced Ramjet (SPEAR). Boeing plans the missile to be a flight demonstrator for the F/A-18. It was originally expected to fly in 2022, though the company did not provide an updated schedule.
The Navy is also integrating the Northrop Grumman Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range and the Raytheon GBU-53B/StormBreaker into its fleet in the near term.
The capacity issue covers both air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles, so the Navy wants to find new ways to meet this challenge. Blakely said the service is exploring how to create a low-cost, high-capacity “effector” that could augment high-end aircraft and other systems that are in development. That venture could be similar to the Air Force’s plan for a Standoff Attack Weapon, a new effort to produce a lower-cost long-range missile in a large quantity compared with more expensive missiles and aircraft to deliver them.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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The C-390 Millennium – Creating A New Global Philosophy In Maintenance And Performance
Aviation Week - Sponsored By Embraer September 26, 2022
The Embraer C-390 Millennium is already setting new standards in the tactical airlift market, the designers having created a new generation of aircraft with multi-mission capability. It provides the perfect blend of mature and proven technology with state-of-the-art thinking to ensure the best of both worlds – reliability and a new experience in performance.
The Brazilian Air Force (BAF) has been operating the C-390 since 2019, and the aircraft is already proven and in service in high-profile missions. Two years ago, for example, the aircraft proved to be critical in responding to the COVID crisis in the country, bringing hope and practical relief to those most in need. In terms of global crises, it has also completed humanitarian support missions in Beirut to support the victims of a devastating explosion within the port, in Haiti to support the victims of a deadly earthquake, and most recently, helping in the repatriation of Brazilians and other nationals fleeing from the conflict in Ukraine.
In 2021, the aircraft impressed during Operation Culminating, an unprecedented joint training exercise between the BAF, the United States Army, and the Brazilian Army, to prepare paratroopers and crews for deployment in air-land operations. Throughout the exercise, the C-390 Millennium successfully demonstrated its excellent interoperability with other aircraft and armed forces performing Aerial Assault, Aerial Infiltration, and Medical Evacuation missions.
Most recently, the Millennium was part of a combined humanitarian aid exercise (Operation ‘Cooperación VII’) involving a combined air component featuring aircraft from the United States, Canada, Chile, Honduras, Colombia and Brazil, in addition to military contingents from eight other countries. A total of 36 missions were carried out by the C-390, from aero logistics transport missions to airdrops, with 100% availability of the aircraft throughout. It was also able to demonstrate its versatility, operating from airfields with vastly different elevations, from 570ft through to 8,400ft.
The C-390 Millennium is a truly remarkable aircraft fast gaining a reputation for its reliability and performance. Such reliability and performance, however, don’t happen by chance. They are the result of a clearly thought-out commercial strategy that enables resilience to be ‘built-in’ to the aircraft’s design and operation.
Embraer works with more than a dozen global partners who, between them, deliver some 60% of the Millennium’s parts, equipment and systems. It also has export licenses with a further 11 countries, which ensures a global spread of expertise, including the knowledge and capability to support C-390 Millennium aircraft wherever they are operating. This expertise, together with a support network of more than 80 MROs, 10+ owned service centers, a further 80 or more authorized service centers, and well in excess of 200 field support representatives, demonstrate the depth and breadth of Embraer’s commitment to the C-390 platform.
While the Millennium may be manufactured locally in Brazil, Embraer’s Material Solutions business supports a global fleet of more than 4,000 aircraft. It has a network of nine distribution centers for parts and spares, and more than 70 storage locations, which are interconnected to ensure essential parts are always available, wherever and whenever they are needed.
Essential maintenance philosophy
Maintenance is, of course, an essential part of keeping an aircraft operational for longer. But unnecessary maintenance can create more problems than it solves. Embraer uses the Maintenance Steering Group 3 (MSG-3) philosophy to plan maintenance at intervals that recognize the inherent reliability of aircraft systems and components.
It works on four guiding principles: that maintenance is only effective if the task is applicable; excessive maintenance does not deliver improved reliability; unnecessary tasks can introduce human error, creating an issue that didn’t previously exist; and that close monitoring of parts and systems is generally more effective than hard-time overhauls.
The MSG-3 philosophy, one favored by many modern aircraft, is complemented by AHEAD – Embraer’s Aircraft Health Analysis Diagnosis. This collates and interprets data from onboard systems, enabling operators to quickly troubleshoot when an issue occurs to prevent a minor problem from becoming a potentially major incident. Aircraft systems and engine performance data can be transmitted live to anywhere in the world, allowing corrective actions to be taken even before the aircraft has touched the ground.
By adopting this philosophy, the C-390 can go for longer intervals between each maintenance visit. The plan also reflects the simplicity enjoyed by commercial operators in being divided into three specific streams:
• Line checks – comprising those checks that can be performed overnight or during a break in transit including draining and replenishing the oil systems, changing the brakes or tires, topping up lubricants, and visual checks to flaps and slats.
• Intermediate checks – comprising the checks necessary after every 600 flying hours, which are classified as low complexity and can be done outside the hangar.
• Base checks – checks that are planned to be carried out every five years, which range from the simple visual and operations checks to the more detailed tasks, including structural inspections.
To these three core activities, each operator can add their own checks to the maintenance program as and when it is considered necessary. The key is to adapt the maintenance program to the operator’s requirements, to maintain the aircraft’s technical dispatch reliability (TDR), and to maintain a high standard to both its interior and exterior. MSG-3 combined with a lean and intelligent maintenance program reflects in more availability and smaller cost of operation.
Reliability is essential, and is the result of Embraer’s people, infrastructure, philosophy, and experience. It is also the result of Embraer’s partners, those chosen to work with the organization and deliver many of its main components.
Proven technology and support
For example, it uses Rockwell Collins’ Pro Line Fusion, an integrated avionics system. It features scalable architecture, total connectivity, intuitive decision-making tools, and advanced situational awareness capabilities to enhance the safety and efficiency of every mission. The C-390 uses Auxiliary Power Units (APUs) from Hamilton, widely sourced by other OEMs worldwide and therefore easy to support with readily available parts and spares. And it takes advantage of V2500-E5 engines from the International Aero Engines consortium, which consists of Pratt & Whitney, Japanese Aero Engine Corporation and MTU Aero Engines.
The V2500 engine is now used on three separate airframes: the Airbus A320 Family; the Boeing MD-90; and the Embraer C-390 Millennium. To put that into context, approximately 190 airlines and lessors from around 70 different countries operate the V2500 engine, which demonstrates how they are proven in the field, highly reliable, and easy to support. They are designed to operate for 30 years without the need for any major overhaul, reducing lifetime costs by as much as 30% against comparable aircraft.
These and other factors, such as the C-390’s full fly-by-wire capability, which negates the need for any control cable inspections and adjustments, and a landing gear with more than 30 million flying hours of engineering experience behind it, help support the reliability of an already incredibly reliable aircraft. When all factors are taken into account, the C-390’s operational costs are, on average, 30% less per mission than other typical tactical airlifters. It has been delivering an operational availability above 80% and a completion rate (operational reliability) of 99% in the Brazilian Air Force - a truly remarkable statistic.
In choosing the C-390 Millennium, therefore, operators are buying in to a local manufacturer with a truly global outlook and proven capability, from the parts and equipment it uses to the infrastructure it deploys to keep those aircraft in the air. And it backs its manufacturing and maintenance philosophy with a similarly global approach to support, giving operators access to high-end training tools and devices, and real-world training to prepare pilots for the real-world challenges that lie ahead.
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Quad-rotors Demonstrate Lockheed, Verizon Vision For Military 5G
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble September 28, 2022
Four quad-rotor drones used a private 5G communications network to help geo-locate stationary radio frequency emitters and securely stream video data to military users on the ground during a series of demonstrations organized by Lockheed Martin and Verizon.
The demonstrations in May and September at Lockheed’s 5G test range in Waterton, Colorado are a key step in the company’s plans to develop private 5G ultra wideband communications technology for military applications.
“By blending advanced commercial 5G capabilities with military capabilities using secure, open standards, we are helping to make the DOD’s vision for integrated deterrence a reality,” said Dan Rice, vice president for Lockheed’s 5G.Mil Programs.
During the demonstrations, the four quad-rotors cooperated with each other via communication with Verizon On Site Private Network nodes. The nodes are similar to commercial 5G technology, but allow the user to securely transfer data.
Radio-frequency signals detected by payloads aboard the quad-rotors were transferred using a surrogate public network to an advanced processor, which used signal processing algorithms to geo-locate the source of the stationary emitter.
A future demonstration will use similar quad-rotor and communications technology, but attempt to precisely geolocate moving emitters.
Lockheed and Verizon announced plans to collaborate on adapting commercial 5G networks for the military in November 2021.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Agility Prime Funds Mayman’s Speeder
Aviation Week - Carole Rickard Hedden September 22, 2022
The U.S. Air Force AFWerX Agility Prime initiative has added Mayman Aerospace to the list of companies receiving support to develop new-generation vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
The $1.25 million award will be used to continue development of Mayman’s Speeder Air Utility Vehicle.
Founder and CEO David Mayman and his team worked closely with Matter Labs to win the direct to Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grant.
“Speeder is a disruptive technology that is changing the way we think about small VTOL aircraft. It is perfectly suited to complex, demanding and often dangerous DOD contested logistics missions,” Mayman says. “We are honored that a U.S. Air Force agency recognizes our technology and understands the inherent value an AUV [autonomous utility vehicle] can bring to military forces. With the AFWERX funding we are even better positioned to deliver and certify Speeder for military requirements within the next 18 months,” Mayman says.
Based in Southern California, Mayman is developing a high-speed utility vehicle with a payload of 600 lb. that can fly at speeds up to 500 mph and with a range of 500 mi. The company is currently flight testing its third full-scale Speeder prototype, which can be operated in autonomous, remote or piloted modes.
The company completed initial tethered flight trials with two Speeder prototypes. Trials with a third full-scale prototype, the P2, are underway. P2 can be configured with four or eight engines and is anticipated to fly off-tether under FAA experimental certification by the end of 2022, as it works to expand the performance envelope.
The modular design includes a standard chassis with interchangeable modules for varied cargo configurations as well as a module that provides a motorcycle-like configuration for a piloted version of the vehicle. Transportable in a pickup truck, the Speeder requires minimal field support due to its design, which has minimized mechanical parts.
Speeder may be flown under full control using vectored-engine thrust, or with quick-fit aerodynamic surfaces for extended range missions.
Company presentations show the turbine-powered Speeder will use net zero e-fuel—synthetic fuel produced from renewable electricity and carbon captured from the air.
In military applications, the Speeder could be used for autonomous swarming operations, logistics, and rapid response. Civilian operations include logistics, medical and firefighting use cases.
Mayman Aerospace, a venture-backed company, designed the Speeder to fill the gap between traditional helicopter, drone and eVTOL operations by offering both speed and heavier lift capabilities.
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Carole Rickard Hedden is Executive Editor for custom content and Program Excellence for the Aviation Week Network, providing custom content and research to industry executives. She also is Editor-in-Chief of Aviation Week’s Advanced Air Mobility Report.
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Boeing Agrees To Integrate Augmented Reality On TA-4
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble September 22, 2022
Boeing has agreed to integrate the Red 6 training system on a company-owned McDonnell Douglas TA-4 chase plane as a step toward potentially integrating the visually augmented reality technology on U.S. Air Force trainer and fighter fleets.
The Boeing T-7 and F-15EX are the next candidates to receive the Advanced Tactical Augmented Reality System (ATARS) by Red 6, says Dan Gillian, vice president of Boeing Global Services.
The ATARS presents a synthetic image of another aircraft—such as a refueling tanker or a dogfighting adversary—on a special visor of a pilot’s helmet, allowing the pilot to train with another aircraft without the expense of operating the physical object.
“Red 6’s Augmented Reality system with the pathfinding T-7 and F-15EX represents another transformational leap in capability,” Gillian says.
Boeing says in a statement it is the first company to team with Red 6.
Lockheed Martin Ventures previously invested in Santa Monica, California-based Red 6, which has raised more than $40 million since 2018, according to CrunchBase.
The Defense Department also awarded Red 6 a $1.2 million contract on May 4 to integrate ATARS into the simulation environment of the Lockheed Martin F-22, according to USASpending.gov
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Security Politics Challenge Gripen’s Market Foothold, Saab Says
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne September 02, 2022
Saab’s Gripen has not had much luck on the international market in recent years. What had been the poster child for a low-cost, high-reliability, NATO-compatible combat aircraft, and the favorite for several key European fighter acquisitions, has failed to secure a new order for nearly a decade.
• Gripen E top-up orders from Brazil and Sweden envisioned
• Sweden plans to retain and upgrade Gripen C/Ds into 2030s
• Saab believes NATO membership could boost sales opportunities
Brazil was the last country to place an order for the Gripen, selecting the E/F-model for its F-X fighter project at the end of 2013. For the Gripen C/D model, we can turn the clock back even further to 2007, when Thailand ordered the type.
Even in acquisition contests where a Gripen selection appeared almost certain, particularly in Eastern Europe, the Gripen C/D found itself bested—by Lockheed Martin’s Block 70 F-16 in Bulgaria and Slovakia and secondhand Dassault Rafales in Croatia.
A proposal to the Czech Republic to hand over its Gripen C/D fighters for free at the end of their lease in 2027 was rejected. Prague instead announced it would begin negotiations to purchase a 24-strong fleet of Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
And where Sweden has proposed the more advanced Gripen E, the F-35 program’s scale and established cooperation with the U.S. Air Force have proven to be strong selling points for the fifth-generation platform, securing recent selection decisions in both Canada and Finland. The Gripen E was unable to compete against the F-35 in Switzerland after being delisted from the contest.
Saab’s management insists there is nothing wrong with the Gripen platform. Instead, it says, the aircraft’s market has been stifled in part by security politics, driven mainly by countries such as France and the U.S.
“If [the contests] had been a completely level playing field in terms of not talking about security politics . . . I think we would have been much better off,” Saab CEO Micael Johansson said at a media briefing in Stockholm on Aug. 26. He said U.S. industry in particular enjoyed “tremendous leverage” from the U.S. government, and that it was not easy for a small country like Sweden to compete with that.
The company has also noticed new trends emerging in the combat aircraft industry since defense spending began rising, particularly among NATO member states, in 2014 in response to Russian actions in Eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.
Saab officials say some nations have begun focusing on acquisition affordability as opposed to operating costs. Politicians and generals, they say, may be eyeing highly capable new platforms, but are not fully considering their through-life costs.
“The geopolitical landscape in terms of the fighter jet business is unpredictable,” says Johan Segertoft, head of the Gripen design unit at Saab. “You can observe that when you see how major countries are behaving in relation to the [Ukraine] conflict.”
Johansson said industry’s export efforts needed stronger support from the Swedish government. He noted that in recent years, instead, Stockholm has dismantled much of the export element of the country’s defense support organization, FMV. “They [the FMV] are doing as [well] as they can, but there are only a few people on the state side supporting export,” he said. “If you want to be successful . . . prime ministers, foreign ministers and defense ministers all need to be meeting in the context of the broader relations between the countries.”
Despite these challenges, Saab remains optimistic about the Gripen’s chances on the international market. The company, with the Swedish government’s backing, continues to chase opportunities in Colombia, India and the Philippines. Sales of hundreds of aircraft are still possible, Johansson insisted.
And Sweden’s upcoming entry into the NATO alliance could help bolster the position of the previously nonmilitarily aligned Nordic nation as a more trustworthy defense partner in the eyes of allies. Slovakia had previously identified Sweden’s lack of NATO membership as an issue in its fighter selection.
“I hope becoming part of NATO would put us at least on par with other countries in terms of capabilities, and then it will be difficult to say that we’re not a long-term trusted partner in this,” Johansson said.
The Swedish Air Force’s plans to retain a significant part of its Gripen C/D fleet into the 2030s may also help breathe new life and export interest into the platform. The service originally planned to begin phasing out the fleet in the mid-2020s in favor of the Gripen E but is now preparing to retain at least part of the fleet until 2035, to provide more combat mass.
“We find ourselves in a totally different situation—the war in Ukraine, entering into NATO and growing the air force and the armed forces—and we need to have more fighters than we were planning for in the beginning,” Maj. Gen. Carl-Johan Edstrom, commander of the Swedish Air Force, told Aviation Week at the service’s annual air show in Uppsala. The final number of C/D-model aircraft to be retained has not been decided, and could emerge in a defense policy paper due to be published in early 2023.
Those that are retained will need to be upgraded, Edstrom said, with the air force envisioning two or three more block upgrade programs for the Gripen C/Ds, aligning their capabilities closer to those of the Gripen E. These upgrades will include new weapons systems and possibly a new radar, he said.
“The trick is to do those upgrades whilst simultaneously doing that with the Gripen E also. We need to phase that in the right way, and we are working in close cooperation with FMV and Saab,” Edstrom said.
Saab has already internally developed and flight-tested an X-band active, electronically scanned array radar for the Gripen C/D that could support that road map, while Segertoft suggested that the distributed integrated platforms computing system that separates safety critical code from mission critical code and enables accelerated software upgrades, could also be phased into the Gripen C/D.
Further Gripen E sales are also on the horizon, beyond the 96 aircraft ordered by the Swedish and Brazilian air forces, with top-up orders likely to follow. The Brazilian government has already stated that it wants to purchase at least four more aircraft, and future batches could follow.
Sweden is also expected to top up its fleet once the air force’s C/D-model Gripens are retired in the mid-2030s, says Jonas Hjelm, Saab’s head of aeronautics business. “I can’t see the air force going back to 60 aircraft only,” he says. “So, yes, pure logic says that more Gripen Es will be required in the Swedish Air Force.”
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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South Korea’s FA-50 To Succeed Poland’s Soviet-Era Combat Aircraft
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 02, 2022
Poland has turned to South Korea to help it quickly modernize its armed forces in the face of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
Agreements between Warsaw and Seoul signed July 27 pave the way for the purchase of dozens of aircraft and hundreds of main battle tanks and self-propelled artillery pieces—a jackpot for South Korea’s burgeoning defense industry that could be worth 19.4 trillion won ($14.8 billion).
The deal potentially positions South Korea as Poland’s second most important defense procurement partner, behind the U.S. and ahead of the rest of Europe. A contract for 48 FA-50 light attack aircraft—a derivative of the Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) T-50 Golden Eagle jet trainer—crucially secures KAI’s first ever European order, and the manufacturer’s largest export deal so far, worth around $3 billion.
• NATO member is buying 48 FA-50s to replace MiG-29s and Su-22s
• Poland to get service center
KAI’s breakthrough in Europe, with an increasingly important NATO member state, could position the company for further opportunities in the region. The company had previously managed to sell KT-1 Woongbi turboprop training aircraft to Turkey.
The OEM is already actively marketing the T-50 to Slovakia. There are also numerous countries in Europe with aging training fleets, which KAI believes could be a shoo-in for the General Electric F404-powered platform.
But first, the company must deliver. Poland’s urgent needs mean KAI must hand over the first 12 FA-50s by mid-2023, possibly with aircraft diverted from South Korean orders. The remaining 36 will be in a bespoke configuration called FA-50PL, a variant based on the Block 20 version of the aircraft equipped with an active, electronically scanned array radar and integrated with air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons, KAI CEO Ahn Hyun-Ho said at the July 27 contract signing ceremony in Warsaw.
Along with delivering the aircraft, KAI will cooperate with Polish industry on the creation of a service center to support FA-50s, both in-country and for future European customers.
“It is the beginning of joint cooperation, not simply sales,” Hyun-Ho said, adding that any FA-50 buyers could be “potential customers of the future KF-21 [Boramae indigenous fighter].”
“For KAI, the European market is useful, but not crucial,” says industry analyst Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “They have been doing well enough with an Asian/Middle East/emerging market strategy, but Poland really matters more from the standpoint of volume and critical mass rather than as a NATO country endorsement.”
The FA-50s will replace Poland’s aging fleet of Warsaw Pact-era Sukhoi Su-22 “Fitters” and Russian Aircraft Corp. MiG-29 “Fulcrums,” and will equip three air force squadrons. The two Soviet-era combat aircraft are seen as obsolete and increasingly difficult to support and maintain, say Polish defense officials.
The first batches of FA-50s are also expected to support flight training, potentially taking on part of the mission for which Poland purchased the Leonardo M-346, a type officials say has been experiencing availability issues.
Lt. Col. Krzysztof Platek, a Polish defense materiel agency spokesman, told Polish defense journal Defence24 that the FA-50 had been selected because of its rapid availability. He added that their capabilities, particularly once the more advanced FA-50PLs are introduced, would exceed the capabilities of the MiG-29 and Su-22 and would be “fully complementary” to Poland’s Lockheed Martin F-16s and its future F-35 Joint Strike Fighter fleet. The FA-50PL could even be armed with the Raytheon AIM-120 advanced medium-range, air-to-air missile in the future, Platek suggested.
Another likely motivation for purchasing the FA-50 was its acquisition price and operating costs, Aboulafia suggests. “One preliminary lesson of Russia’s Ukraine war is that numbers matter,” he says.
The agreements with South Korea add to a growing list of major procurements signed by Warsaw, with billions of dollars flowing out to pay for uncrewed aircraft systems, surface-to-air missile systems, a bespoke tank destroyer system and a fleet of battlefield helicopters. The Polish government has also approved increases in defense spending to 2.4% of GDP this year, with plans to raise this to 3% of GDP from 2023.
Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak says the deal with South Korea would “significantly strengthen” the Polish Armed Forces. “This strengthening is extremely important in view of the situation on our eastern border,” he says. “We don’t have time, we can’t wait, we have to arm the Polish Army.”
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Ukrainian MiG-29 Seen Carrying Enemy-Air-Defense-Killing Missiles
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 30, 2022
Integration of the U.S. Raytheon AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) onto Ukraine’s MiG-29s has been confirmed by new images released by the Ukrainian Air Force.
In-cockpit video posted to the air force’s Twitter page on Aug. 30 displays the fitment of the AGM-88 missile to the inner-most underwing pylon on at least one MiG-29, which has the NATO reporting name “Fulcrum.”
The video shows one weapon fitted underneath the starboard wing, and then later a second weapon being fired from the port wing.
The use of HARM by Ukraine emerged after remains of fired AGM-88s were found in the east of the country. The Pentagon subsequently confirmed at the beginning of August that the anti-radiation missile had been integrated onto Ukrainian combat aircraft for the wild weasel mission, giving the fighters a limited capability to destroy enemy air defenses.
The AGM-88 is designed to home in on air defense radar emitters and put the sensor out of action. The HARM has three operating modes: Pre-Briefed, Target Of Opportunity and Self-Protect. It is likely that the weapons are being operated in a pre-briefed mode, allowing them to be launched from a stand-off range and then target specific ground-based air defense threats.
It is unclear how many AGM-88s have been delivered to Ukraine, how extensively they have been used or how successful they have been. However, several reports have suggested that in recent days Russia has taken steps to re-deploy S-300 air defense systems from Syria back to Crimea.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Security Politics Affecting Gripen Exports, Saab CEO Says
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 30, 2022
STOCKHOLM–Saab CEO Micael Johansson says the company’s Gripen fighter has faced an uphill struggle against security politics as it attempts to regain a foothold in the international fighter market.
Both the new-generation Gripen E and the earlier C/D-model have failed to secure an order since Brazil selected the Gripen E platform as its future combat aircraft in December 2013.
Several European fighter contests, including programs in Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovakia–long perceived to be a shoo-in for the Swedish aircraft–were instead won by the U.S. F-16 Block 70 and secondhand Dassault Rafales from France.
Even a proposal to the Czech Republic to hand over Gripen C/D fighters for free at the end of their lease was rejected, with Prague opting to begin negotiations to purchase a 24-strong fleet of Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
“If it [the contests] had been a completely level playing field in terms of not talking about security politics ... I think we would have been much better off,” Johansson told journalists during briefings here on Aug. 26.
He said U.S. industry in particular enjoyed “tremendous leverage” from the U.S. government and this was not easy for a small country like Sweden to compete with.
Johansson said the Swedish government needs to better support such export efforts, noting that the government has in recent years dismantled the export element of the country’s defense support organization, FMV.
“They [the FMV] are doing as good as they can, but there are only a few people on the state side supporting export,” Johansson said.
But Johansson suggested there was hope on the horizon, with Sweden’s upcoming entry into NATO positioning the previously nonmilitarily aligned nation as a more trusted defense partner.
“I hope becoming part of NATO would put us at least on par with other countries in terms of capabilities and then it will be difficult to say that we’re not a long-term trusted partner in this,” he added.
Saab believes the Gripen has the ability to “capture a substantial portion of the market,” Johansson says, with sales of hundreds of aircraft possible.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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The Week In Defense, Aug. 12-18, 2022
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 05, 2022
More Nasams, Himars Ammo Going to Ukraine
The Biden administration is sending Ukraine another $1 billion in aid, including ammunition for previously announced National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (Nasams) and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (Himars).
The latest package, the 18th tranche of equipment provided under the presidential drawdown authority of Pentagon equipment, brings the total aid to Ukraine to $9.1 billion since Russia invaded the nation in late February.
In a briefing announcing the aid, Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said it includes an undisclosed number of AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (Amraam), which are used in the Nasams. The Nasams shipment, first announced in early July, are yet to be delivered to Ukraine, and it will take a “period of time” for the inventory of Amraams to be assessed and then sent, he said.
In the briefing, Kahl also disclosed for the first time that the U.S. delivered anti-radiation missiles that can be fired from Ukrainian aircraft “that can have effects on Russian radars and other things.” Recent images posted to social media channels indicate that Ukraine has been using U.S.-made AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missiles on Russian targets. Kahl also said that there have been deliveries of spare parts to keep Ukrainian aircraft in the air “for a longer period of time.”
The latest package includes an undisclosed amount of Himars ammunition, which has become critical in Ukraine’s fight against Russia in the open and flat terrain of eastern Ukraine.
Other items in the latest batch include 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, mortar systems and ammunition, 1,000 Javelin missiles, hundreds of AT4 anti-armor systems, Claymore anti-personnel mines, 50 medical treatment vehicles, C-4 explosives and medical supplies.
—Brian Everstine in Washington
USAF Looks To Speed Up E-7A Contract
The U.S. Air Force aims to reprogram funding so that it has greater flexibility to award a prototype contract for Boeing E-7A Wedgetails in the event that a continuing budget resolution blocks starting the program on time.
Steven Wert, the Air Force Life-Cycle Management Center’s program executive officer for digital, says the service is working on a new start above the threshold reprogramming request and a continuing resolution anomaly to provide funding to begin the contract work earlier. The service’s best-case schedule would currently be a contract award in February 2023.
“We are actively working that right now, but that’s the timeline we’re on,” Wert says. “It’s just the acquisition physics of the things that we have to do to work through that process.”
If Congress does not pass an appropriations bill and instead approves a continuing resolution to keep the government funded, the Air Force would be blocked from spending on “new start” acquisitions such as the E-7A program. A reprogramming of a limited amount of funding “would give us the flexibility to potentially speed it up somewhat,” he says. “It’s not going to be a dramatic speedup, but we’re doing everything we can.”
The Air Force’s current schedule is to buy two prototypes ahead of a production decision in 2025. The service wants 22 of the Boeing 737-based aircraft, slated for an initial operational capability in 2030.
To accelerate the process, the Air Force is working closely with the Royal Australian Air Force, which started the E-7A program, and the UK Royal Air Force, which is buying three of the aircraft.
—Brian Everstine in Dayton, Ohio
Canadian Air Force Snowbird Fleet Grounded After Incident
The Royal Canadian Air Force’s CT-114 Tutor fleet is grounded as an investigation continues into an Aug. 2 mishap that damaged one of the Snowbird display team’s aircraft.
The grounding will remain in effect until an assessment of the Canadair-made, two-seat trainer jet is completed.
“We will return the fleet to flying operations when it is safe to do so and in accordance with our rigorous airworthiness program,” says Maj. Gen. Iain Huddleston, commander of the 1 Canadian Air Division.
A CT-114 pilot reported an emergency during takeoff from Fort St. John in British Columbia on Aug. 2. The pilot landed the aircraft immediately, but it was damaged. The pilot escaped injury. An investigation by the air force’s Directorate of Flight Safety is continuing.
The incident comes more than two years after a bird strike during takeoff caused a CT-114 to crash in May 2020. That pilot survived an ejection with serious injuries, but the passenger, the Snowbird display team’s public affairs officer, was killed.
Canada stopped using the type as a trainer in 2000 after nearly four decades of service, but the CT-114 has remained the aircraft flown by the display team’s 431 Sqdn.
The grounding may prevent the Snowbirds from performing in a string of scheduled air show appearances in Canada and the U.S. through October.
—Steve Trimble in Washington
Joby Signs Expanded Agility Prime eVTOL Contract
Joby Aviation has signed a $45 million expansion of its contract with the U.S. Air Force Agility Prime program.
The extension broadens military engagement on flight testing of Joby’s electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft to include the U.S. Marine Corps and takes the full potential value of the contract to $75 million.
Joby has not disclosed the work that will be performed under the expanded contract but says the Marine Corps will participate in government-directed flight tests and exploration of use cases, including logistics resupply, personnel relocation and emergency medical response.
The expanded contract will allow Joby to forward-invest to derisk manufacture ahead of the launch of its commercial aerial ride-sharing service, planned for 2024, Joby Executive Chairman Paul Sciarra says. The contract will also support R&D to expand the capabilities of Joby’s eVTOL.
“Having the Marine Corps come in is an important show of confidence,” Sciarra tells Aviation Week. “The Marine Corps is a particularly discerning customer with a concept of operations that is complex and nimble in how they think about logistics and people movement.”
In December 2020, Joby became the first eVTOL developer to complete an airworthiness assessment and receive approval to operate its engineering prototype for government-sponsored flight-testing. The S4 tiltprop eVTOL made its first test flight in conjunction with Agility Prime in March 2021.
The first prototype was lost in a crash this February on a remotely piloted test flight, but the second prototype has continued to perform uncrewed tests for the Defense Department while the next “production-intent” prototype undergoes assembly at Joby’s manufacturing facility in Marina, California.
Under Agility Prime, Air Force personnel have worked with Joby to refine the flight control scheme for the S4. “Their feedback has been really valuable for us as we work to build the easiest aircraft to fly,” Sciarra says. The fly-by-wire S4 uses a unified control strategy for vertical and forward flight to simplify operation.
Joby is “relatively unique” among publicly traded eVTOL developers, he says, in having two paths to market: government and civil. These markets will use the same vehicle on similar missions, and early involvement by military customers will support eventual commercial launch, he adds.
—Graham Warwick in Washington
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Jefferson Morris
Jeff has been involved in aerospace journalism for more than a decade. Prior to joining Aviation Week, Jeff served as managing editor of Launchspace magazine and the International Space Industry Report.
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https://aviationweek.com/special-topics/sustainability/week-defense-aug-12-18-2022
Milestones Set For Turkish Indigenous Fighter Progress
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne August 05, 2022
In just over 220 days, Turkish Aerospace Industries plans to roll out the first prototype of the country’s indigenous fighter aircraft, the TF-X.
The company’s engineers are hurriedly working on completing the prototype, aiming to enable an engines-¬running rollout of the fifth-generation, low-observable, supercruise-¬capable, twin-engine combat aircraft on March 18, 2023—the 108th anniversary of Turkey’s victory at the battle of Gallipoli during the First World War.
It should be a significant day for the aerospace manufacturer.
On the same day, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) CEO Temel Kotil wants to have the company’s newly developed advanced jet trainer, the Hurjet, also make its first flight.
“We like a challenge . . . and our young engineers are hungry for success,” he told journalists at the Farnborough International Airshow. The TF-X’s first flight is planned to follow exactly two years later, on March 18, 2025.
But perhaps the biggest challenge is yet to come, as the Turkish government wants the fighter to be exportable—a jewel in the crown of the country’s efforts to become a major defense equipment exporter.
The TF-X prototypes will use the General Electric (GE) F110 engine from the F-16, with several engines already delivered to support the program.
But to be fully exportable, Turkey must have an indigenous engine. Kotil said the aircraft will need one by 2028 when it begins to enter service, though a domestic one is not yet available.
Six years is not much time to develop a new fighter engine—let alone deliver one ready for the front line—yet the Turkish government last month issued a request for proposals to industry to do just that.
Bidders include TRMotor, the TAI-owned engine subsidiary tasked with developing the fighter’s auxiliary power unit and air turbine start system last year. Other bidders include TUSAS Engine Industries, jointly owned by TAI and GE, which has recently begun developing an indigenous 6,000-lb.-thrust-class turbofan that could power a domestically developed uncrewed aircraft system.
A joint proposal by Kale Group and Rolls-Royce was also expected, Ismail Demir, president of the country’s Defense Industry Agency, SSB, told journalists in early July. The companies have not confirmed to Aviation Week whether they have submitted a bid. The two companies worked together on a similar initiative with the TF-X engine in 2017.
Kotil acknowledged that developing an engine in Turkey for the fighter in a short period of time represents a significant challenge but said there are now new software design tools to help streamline the powerplant’s development. “In terms of computing power, we have no problems,” he said.
TRMotor already had preliminary designs for the engine, Kotil said. At the same time, TEI has decades of experience in engine assembly and maintenance and has also accelerated development of the TS1400 turbo¬shaft, which should begin to equip TAI’s T-625 Gokbey utility helicopter this year.
Another significant challenge is building up human resources and Turkey’s industrial aerospace capability parallel to the fighter’s development.
“In Turkey, there is not an aerospace industry like there is in the UK, U.S. or Russia or Europe. . . . We are building from scratch,” Kotil said.
The company has been hiring thousands of engineers every year from Turkish universities as well as experienced engineers from overseas, and local industry is developing subsystems for the aircraft, including flight controls, avionics and sensors as well as systems such as landing gear, he added. Pilots are also flying a TF-X simulator that supports development of the flight control system.
BAE Systems is continuing to support the design and development of TF-X through the six-year government-to-government deal between London and Ankara in 2017. Future phases of this work are now under negotiation.
Paving the way for the fighter program is development of the Hurjet, the super-sonic-capable, GE F404-¬powered advanced jet trainer developed with $1 billion of internal funding. More of a commercial project for the OEM, Hurjet development is a steppingstone and an indicator of the company’s increasingly advanced development capability, Kotil said.
“In five years, we have gone from the turboprop Hurkus to the supersonic Hurjet,” he said. “What could we do in the following five years?”
The Turkish Air Force has ordered 12 Hurjets as T-38 Talon replacements, with deliveries expected to begin in 2025.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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U.S. Hands Over Modified CN-235 MPA To Malaysia
Aviation Week - Chen Chuanren August 05, 2022
SINGAPORE—The U.S. Navy has officially handed over the first of three modified CN-235-220M maritime patrol aircraft to the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF).
The project is part of the U.S. Navy’s Building Partner Capacity program under the broader U.S. government’s Maritime Security Initiative.
In September 2020 the CN-235s were sent to Indonesian airframer PT Dirgantara Indonesia, which installed a belly-mounted maritime surveillance radar, FLIR turret, a roll-on/roll-off CarteNav AIMS-ISR mission management system and line-of-sight datalink capabilities. The aircraft were then given to the RMAF in June of this year.
Two more aircraft are expected to be completed by 2022.
The RMAF also has a requirement for six new maritime patrol aircraft under the so-called CAP55 road map.
Separately, Malaysian Defense Minister Ikmal Hisham Abdul Aziz told parliament the ministry has completed the tender evaluation processes to acquire UAS. A final decision will be made by August. The aircraft will be delivered by 2025. The UAS will be based in Labuan, East Malaysia, to conduct surveillance in the South China Sea and the over the east coast of Sabah.
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Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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Loyal Wingman Concepts Changing As Designs Evolve
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble Tony Osborne Brian Everstine July 22, 2022
An image of a phalanx of uncrewed “loyal wingman” aircraft flying in close formation with a crewed fighter has become a popular illustration for a vision of air combat premised on intense collaboration between human pilots and robotic helpers.
• BAE Systems shows off new uncrewed wingman concepts
• Skunk Works, Phantom Works elaborate on wingman vision
But that image is becoming increasingly outdated by reality. A new wave of comments and product reveals by government and industry in the lead-up to and during the Farnborough International Airshow demonstrate that the concept of human-machine teaming is solidifying as it continues to evolve. The new concepts often show a shift toward a new class of advanced autonomous wingmen “untethered” from the piloted fighters and bombers in a strike package, along with a diverse array of multirole expendable assets cheap enough to be disposed of, such as precision-guided munitions.
“What we really want to be is untethered from a [crewed] platform and to have the autonomous vehicle go where it’s needed,” Steve Nordlund, vice president and general manager of Boeing’s Phantom Works division, told reporters here on July 19.
Nordlund’s position was echoed in statements by one of his fiercest rivals. Addressing reporters a week earlier, John Clark, the new general manager of Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, said the next generation of uncrewed aircraft will be able to operate independently of crewed fighters, exploiting their natural advantage of extended endurance compared to an aircraft burdened by the biological limits and needs of an onboard human pilot.
The concepts are coming into sharper focus as military officials tweak acquisition and fielding plans for the first generation of autonomous aircraft capable of collaborating with fixed-wing combat jets.
As recently as last August, the U.S. Air Force was committed to transitioning to a program of record by 2023 for the Skyborg project, which called for integrating a government-owned autonomy software core on a new class of so-called attritable aircraft costing $2-20 million.
But Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who took office last August, altered the plan. Now the Air Force plans to field an advanced Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) by the end of the decade, matching the delivery plan for the crewed fighter at the heart of the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program’s family of systems. During the air show, Kendall confirmed that the CCA program for the NGAD’s crewed fighter is moving forward. A separate study of an uncrewed wingman for the Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber is taking longer to resolve, but the Air Force has not yet given up on that possibility, Kendall told Aviation Week.
At the same time, the UK Royal Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO) has restructured the Lightweight Affordable Novel Combat Aircraft (LANCA) program. The RCO now plans to seek proposals for an expendable-class, uncrewed aircraft focused on a specific task, such as confusing an enemy’s air defense systems by creating an electromagnetic signature typical of a larger, crewed aircraft. The shift has led to the abrupt cancellation of the Spirit AeroSystems Mosquito, an attritable-class aircraft similar to the U.S. Air Force Skyborg platform’s attritable platforms.
In the wake of the Mosquito cancellation, Spirit AeroSystems, which owns the former Short Brothers business in Belfast, Northern Ireland, plans to resubmit proposals for the smaller LANCA requirement.
BAE Systems also revealed new concepts for a future uncrewed air system to operate alongside existing and future fighters. UAS Concept 1, the smaller of the two systems, is designed to be reusable but expendable. Conventional in shape and powered by a turbojet engine, the 3-m-long (9.8-ft.) Concept 1 is designed to carry a 40-kg (88-lb.) payload that could include sensors, jammers or more kinetic effects. It would fly at around Mach 0.5, so it might operate ahead of a crewed fighter force, potentially confusing enemy air defenses and clearing a gap for a strike force. Steve Reeves, head of future systems within BAE’s Air Systems division, notes that the platform could work with other force elements in addition to combat aircraft. Its rail-launched capability would allow it to be operated from ground vehicles or ships. Recovery would be by parachute.
The larger platform, the 3.5-metric-ton Concept 2, is closer to other loyal wingman platforms being developed. Designed to operate at about Mach 0.75 with an endurance of around 5 hr., Concept 2 would be more capable of operating alongside crewed combat aircraft. Reeves says its size, similar to BAE’s Hawk jet trainer, will allow it to accommodate up to four MBDA Spear 3 air-to-ground cruise missiles or a pair of Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles in internal bays. Designed to take off and land conventionally, Concept 2 has more low-observability (LO) features than Concept 1. However, increased LO features potentially push up the price, Reeves notes.
The cost will depend on the sensor fit of the platforms, but Concept 1 would be priced at less than $1 million per aircraft, while Concept 2 is envisaged to cost a fraction of the price of a crewed fighter.
BAE is developing the UAS concepts with internal funding, hoping the proposals will capture the interest of international air forces. “We’re interested in having a discussion with a customer about how they want to progress this,” Reeves says.
But the Skunk Works’ operational analysis team has settled on a different path for collaboration in combat among crewed and uncrewed aircraft.
The concept calls first for an advanced, uncrewed aircraft with the shaping, coatings and electronic warfare systems that can match the very low signature of the most advanced crewed fighters, Clark said.
He acknowledged that this requirement will lead to a higher price than for the low-cost attritable systems pursued by the AFRL, but perhaps not all such designs need to be as expensive as Kendall has described.
“With the price point going up, we’re likely to get them back each time because they’re better equipped,” Clark said. Additionally, an uncrewed aircraft in combat should match the very-low-observable signature of its crewed teammate to avoid tipping off air defense systems, he adds.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Lawmakers Raise Questions About F-35 Replacement Engine
Aviation Week - Jen DiMascio July 25, 2022
Thirty-five members of the U.S. Congress say they are concerned about an Air Force proposal to use its Advanced Engine Technology Program (AETP) propulsion system to replace the F-35 fighter’s current powerplant.
In January, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall launched a market survey to find potential suppliers for an F-35 Adaptive Engine Replacement Program, in advance of a possible program launch in fiscal 2024. Since then, F-35 program officials have released information about the limitations of the F135 engine.
In a July 22 letter, the lawmakers led by Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) appealed to Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante, arguing a new effort to build an engine to replace Pratt & Whitney’s F135 would be costly—up to $6 billion—and undermine commonality with partner nations.
The lawmakers revisited then-President Barack Obama’s opposition to the development of another F-35 engine, quoting then-Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz as saying, “The alternate engine is not for anybody else but the Air Force. The Navy isn’t going to operate an alternate engine aboard ships. The European partners are not going to operate two engines. You’re talking about focusing this on your Air Force, which is problematic in my view.”
The letter asks LaPlante to lay out a timeline for modernizing the F-35 engine, and to specify what roles the Joint Staff, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the other U.S. military services and international partners on the program would have in creating requirements. It also asks whether the Pentagon would require an independent cost assessment of the program, whether the Pentagon would assess the impact on the industrial base and if the Pentagon might also replace the F-35 air vehicle.
“The F135 has outperformed its original specifications, including bleed air draw and time on wing, enabling it to support three major airframe and payload upgrades without engine modernization,” the letter says. “At the same time, the average engine cost has been reduced by more than 50% to date. Meanwhile, the U.S. services have spent over $7 billion upgrading the airframe and payloads. The current engine can support the upcoming Block 4 air vehicle and payload upgrades. However, there will be an impact to engine life and increased sustainment costs as a result.”
Congress is likely to weigh in on the Air Force proposal to adapt the AETP engine for use on the F-35. The Senate is poised to consider a provision that would ask the comptroller general to review the business case for alternatives to F-35 engine upgrades. And the House has passed a fiscal 2023 Defense Authorization Act that directs the head of the Joint Program Office, Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt, to brief congressional defense committees by Oct. 4 on the results of an ongoing cost-benefit analysis about replacing the F-35’s power and thermal management system, though the bill is not likely to become law before year-end.
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Jen DiMascio
Based in Washington, Jen manages Aviation Week’s worldwide defense, space and security coverage.
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What Controllers Say Pilots Do That Makes Their Jobs Tougher
Aviation Week - Robert Mark July 18, 2022
Air traffic controllers operate on a simple premise: “No two airplanes should ever occupy the same airspace at the same moment in time.”
To make that work, controllers need pilots to follow ATC instructions closely. But the FAA's massive Aeronautical Information Manual, pilots written link to good communications, offers just eight pages of pilot/controller lingo.
And because it’s contained in the AIM, it’s not even regulatory in nature. At the same time, controllers use the Air Traffic Control manual, 7110.65Z, as their operational guide because it details nearly every single air traffic control procedure, as well as the phraseology that most efficiently communicates the intended message. Making the ATC system work smoothly lies somewhere between these two books, and of course how pilots interpret them.
We asked several air traffic controllers at a couple of the most popular pilot/controller online forums to share examples of the radio communications that make their jobs tougher and slow the entire ATC system, especially when there’s a considerable amount of traffic. The responses were evenly split among control tower, en route center and TRACON controllers.
Listen First
One of the top problems relates to those pilots who switch from a previous frequency and immediately key the microphone and begin talking. This makes it nearly impossible for other pilots already on the frequency to acknowledge an ATC instruction they had just been given. It also often completely blocks other aircraft waiting their turn. Always, always, listen on the frequency for 5-10 sec. before punching the transmit button.
Think Before Talking
Pilots can often be heard trying to figure out what they want to say to a controller after they’ve keyed the microphone rather than before. This translates into a pilot taking up 30-sec. of precious radio airtime to say what other pilots might say in only five. Case in point: During a busy traffic period when an instructor allows an inexperienced pilot to attempt to learn radio communications on a busy arrival, departure, or overflight frequency, please figure out the words before you begin speaking to ATC.
Tell The Truth
Controllers often speak quickly when they’re busy and that intimidates some pilots into simply acknowledging an instruction before they realize they don’t completely understand what’s being asked of them.
Controllers ask pilots to, “Please Speak Up,” if they don’t really understand the instructions. It’s dangerous to all when a pilot accepts an ATC instruction but wanders around the sky only thinking they understand. “I don’t care how busy I am," one controller said. "Confirming is better than guessing any day.”
'Immediate' Means Get Moving
When a tower controller says “Falcon 123, cleared for immediate takeoff,” the crew is expected to bring the throttle up smartly and get that airplane moving down the runway. This can be a bit tougher if the waiting airplane wasn’t on the runway yet.
Pilots must understand that a controller bases meeting the required separation minimum on the pilot getting that airplane moving right away. Some tower controllers will make it a bit easier on pilots by saying, “Falcon 123, cleared for immediate takeoff runway 16 or hold short. Traffic is a King Air on a three-mile final." The same emphasis on speed applies while airborne. “Gulfstream 788 turn right immediately. Traffic 12 o’clock and less than a mile.” A failure to comply can be disastrous.
Acknowledging Traffic
Controllers say they become annoyed when they call traffic only to hear a response like, “We’re looking for him on the fish finder,” or “We see him on TCAS,” That doesn’t work for ATC. The best response is either “King Air 766 looking for traffic,” “King Air 766 has traffic in sight,” or ‘King Air 766 negative contact.” It’s important that pilots tell ATC when they lose sight of traffic they previously reported in sight.
Controller Attitude
A TRACON controller said, “Sometimes we might sound upset when we really aren’t. A lot of ATC facilities are understaffed and overworked, so please bear with us. Then too, there are a few controllers who are just jerks. Sorry about that.”
Just like pilots, remember that controllers are often in training as well. That’s when everyone must add some patience to their flight plan.
Stick To The Speed Assigned
In most busy terminal areas, controllers are extremely fussy about airspeeds. When ATC assigns a speed of 160 kts, for example, they expect pilots to fly that speed precisely, right up to the outer marker. Don’t ever slow the aircraft early without asking first. If ATC ever asks a pilot for something the aviator can’t handle, for whatever reason, a simple “Unable,” works best. Controllers will quickly create an alternate plan.
'Blocked '
Using this phrase often makes everyone on a frequency crazy because no one knows for sure who should speak next. Three or four pilots jumping on to tell ATC an unknown transmission was “blocked,” simply makes a difficult situation worse. Give the person on the ground a few seconds to sort things out.
Checking In
The AIM offers a few non-regulatory examples of how pilots can check in between ATC facilities while en route, but controllers mentioned one that isn’t helpful at all: “Malibu 788, 6,000 climbing 9.”
Instead, this is preferred: “Cleveland Center, Falcon 915RB, leaving Flight Level Two Zero Seven, climbing to Flight Level 350.” If an aircraft is inbound on a STAR, mentioning the procedure on the initial call-up helps.
A Word About Training
Despite the search for communications perfection, there are times when training or letting the new person learn the ropes should be put on hold.
When new controllers are training, they’re plugged into their sector alongside a more experienced controller who can override them if safety is threatened. As one controller and pilot mentioned, “There have been times when I’m flying that I find myself praying the ATC instructor will step in and fix a traffic mess a new controller has created." Instructors must always weigh the benefit of a trainee digging their own way out of a situation versus the cost to the overall operation.
It’s a balance on both sides of the microphone.
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South Korea’s KF-21 Completes First Flight
Aviation Week - Kim Minseok Chen Chuanren July 19, 2022
SEOUL, SINGAPORE—South Korea’s latest fighter project, the Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) KF-21 Boramae, completed its first flight on the afternoon of July 19.
The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said the KF-21 took off at the Third Flying Training Wing of the Air Force in Sacheon, South Korea, where the aircraft is manufactured. The KF-21 flew around the area for more than 30 min. Local media reported that the flight took around 40 min.
DAPA added that the fighter was equipped with four captive MBDA Meteor missiles, but not with other advanced avionics like the infrared search-and-track system. A Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) source told Aerospace DAILY that it tested basic low-speed flight, flying at around 215 kt. Two KAI T-50s provided chase during the event.
KAI has completed the assembly of six prototype aircraft, including two twin-seater variants. These six aircraft will conduct a combined total of 2200 sorties by 2026 before Block 1 will enter production for the ROKAF.
Forty Blk. 1 will be manufactured and integrated with Diehl Defense AIM-2000 (IRIS-T), Meteor, JDAM, LJDAM and locally developed KGGB guided bomb. Blk. 1 will also have full air-to-air combat capability and limited air-to-ground capability to attain initial operating capability.
Another 80 Blk. 2 with full air-to-ground capability will be delivered from 2028, this time giving the aircraft full operational capability status. ROKAF is mulling a Blk. 3 that is expected to bring the KF-21 to 5th-generation fighter standards, with an enlarged fuselage and full stealth and joint operation features.
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Kim Minseok
Kim Minseok covers South Korean defense. He has worked as a journalist for South Korean military magazines Military Review and Defense Times. Mr Kim is also a research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank.
Chen Chuanren
Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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Europe Commits To Defense, But Is Unity Cracking?
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne July 08, 2022
The consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine—including cities pounded into rubble by indiscriminate bombing and artillery, war crimes perpetrated by Moscow’s soldiers and a naval blockade of Black Sea ports threatening global food stocks—have galvanized NATO and returned defense to the top of the European priority list.
• More nations are committing to NATO’s 2% of GDP spending target
• EU figures suggest collaborative defense spending has fallen
• Investment in air and missile defense could be prioritized
NATO and EU leaders have spoken warmly of the unity demonstrated by member states, and across the continent, European allies have set in motion spending hikes that could reverse decades of swingeing cuts imposed since the end of the Cold War.
Traditionally nonmilitarily-aligned Finland and Sweden have submitted requests to join NATO, and a Danish referendum has chosen to end the country’s long-standing opt-out to Europe’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP).
Many European countries, along with Australia, Canada and the U.S., have supplied ever-increasing amounts of weapons and equipment to Ukraine while backfilling equipment into those Eastern European countries that are transferring Soviet-era gear eastward.
Yet as the war approaches its 150th day, fractures are appearing. Nations appear divided over how the conflict should end, either through negotiated settlement between Kyiv and Moscow or the complete removal of Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. There is also disagreement over how to manage the social, political and economic impact that the conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia are having on everyday life in Europe, as energy prices skyrocket and propel inflation to historic highs.
Questions remain about the levels of military equipment to supply to Ukraine, too, as well as where Europe’s renewed defense spending should be directed, where equipment will be sourced and whether—after years of cuts—armed forces will have the resources to absorb the vast amounts of equipment they are gearing up to buy.
“European unity has been much stronger than [Russian President Vladimir] Putin probably would have expected,” says Bastian Giegerich, the director of defense and military analysis at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “But my worry is that we are past peak coherence on this matter . . . and beginning to see some splits emerge.” He cites recent struggles among EU members to agree on new sanctions packages. “This doesn’t mean it will all fall apart, but I think it’ll be more difficult now to keep the pressure on,” he adds.
European countries have been frustrated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to bargain over Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO—finally approved at the Madrid NATO summit in late June—and Hungary’s unwillingness to support arms transfers to Ukraine. Central European countries such as Germany are being criticized for an apparent unwillingness to deliver heavy weaponry to Kyiv. An image of a snail with a bullet taped to its shell became a social media meme illustrating Berlin’s perceived failings.
In actuality, Germany has delivered anti-tank missiles in the thousands, along with heavy artillery and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. Analysts suggest Germany’s problem is more one of communications and politics.
“Germany is a coalition government; it is not the presidential system in France, or the parliamentary system in the UK, where decisions can be made relatively easily,” explains Daniel Fiott, the security and defense editor at the EU Institute for Security Studies. “This is absolutely new for them,” he adds. “Germany is always trying to balance between responsibilities in the East and Europe more generally, and that’s not easy for them to do either.”
Special Fund
Despite the criticisms, Germany has become the poster child for Europe’s new defense reality. Berlin has created a €100 billion ($105 billion) special fund to heal capacity shortfalls in its armed forces (AW&ST June 13-26, p. 48). Most crucially, it has promised to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP immediately, a move that will make it one of the largest global spenders on defense after the U.S. and China. By comparison, the Merkel government had pledged to raise spending to just 1.5% of GDP by 2024.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has described plans to rearm as a major national effort. “We must invest significantly more in the security of our country in order to protect our freedom and our democracy in this way,” Scholz said on Feb. 27.
Out of the fund, approved by the German Bundestag on June 3 is cash for Lockheed Martin F-35s to replace Germany’s aging Panavia Tornados in the nuclear mission, new heavy-lift transport helicopters, more maritime patrol aircraft and a new fleet of light utility helicopters, as well as armored vehicles, warships, submarines and funding to rebuild depleted ammunition and equipment stockpiles.
“The German special fund will buy systems and capabilities that are supposed to fill critical gaps that have emerged over the last 20-30 years because of mismanagement and budget cuts,” says Rafael Loss, an expert on German and European foreign and security policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “These are projects that the Bundeswehr have had in their drawers for a long time. . . . And now that finally the money’s there, they can finally afford them.”
But he notes that Germany’s commitments to maintaining the 2% GDP spending level are “soft,” with concerns that spending atsuch levels could lead to waste and inefficiency.
Other countries are following in Germany’s footsteps. The Netherlands has announced plans to purchase additional F-35s, General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper uncrewed aircraft systems and a new fleet of medium-lift helicopters as part of €14.8 billion in additional 2022-25 spending announced in early June.
The country’s annual defense budget also will grow structurally by €5 billion from 2026, boosting defense spending as a proportion of GDP to just over 2%. The increases are the largest in the Netherlands’ defense capability since the Cold War.
Poland wants to raise its defense budget as a proportion of GDP to 3% in response to the Russian invasion and has announced plans for significant spending on new helicopters, main battle tanks and rocket artillery systems. Poland’s defense spending in 2022 is already 2.4% of GDP.
The UK government has committed to raising defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade, from the current amount of approximately 2.1%.
Other nations raising their defense spending include Denmark, Romania and Sweden. Even Ireland is considering an increase in its defense capabilities, having recognized that its armed forces would be unable to properly defend the country against acts of aggression from conventional military forces (AW&ST Feb. 21-March 6, p. 41).
During the run-up to the Madrid summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said member states were considering the 2% “as a floor, not a ceiling.”
Overall, however, there is an “uneven picture” across Europe, suggests Giegerich. Elsewhere, spending increases will be more gradual and more sustainable. Germany, he says, will be the exception rather than the rule because the defense budget there had faced such structural underfunding. “Something dramatic had to happen,” he says.
However, Europe’s spending plans will be challenged by dramatic increases in inflation. EU statistics published at the end of May showed that average inflation in the eurozone had reached 8.1%, with some member states hit even harder because of their reliance on energy imports.
“Inflation is now at a speed where even modest increases in defense spending will just be eaten up right away,” Giegerich says. “So, in real terms, the spending picture is beginning to look quite different.”
Some European countries will “hedge their bets” on increased defense spending, Fiott says. “They see that the next few months and years, economically speaking, are not going to be very healthy for them,” he says.
Closer Collaboration
One way around this could be to encourage increased multi-national cooperation among member states. The EU contends that without such collaboration, individual nations will get less bang for their buck as they purchase new equipment.
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren says the Netherlands would “better coordinate investments in national armed forces, with special attention to strategic shortcomings in Europe.” She cited improved cooperation on programs such as the F-35, on helicopters with Germany and with Belgium on mine warfare. Germany also cited its selection of the F-35 and Boeing’s Chinook transport helicopter as aligning better with regional allies.
The EU fears that the rush for new kit often results in governments opting for domestically built equipment because of industrial and security-of-supply considerations and often selecting non-EU sourced systems such as those from the U.S.
According to the EU, the lack of cooperation between member states on defense is estimated to cost tens of billions of euros each year. It notes that despite increased defense expenditures in 2020, just 11% of investments were spent collaboratively.
While welcoming defense spending increases generally, the EU felt obliged to deliver proposals around improving multinational coordination among the member states, which could result in reduced prices but also help Europe’s defense industrial base.
Supporting these proposals would be a Defense Joint Procurement Task Force that would work with member states to support the coordination and deconflict their short-term procurement needs. The EU also wants to incentivize nations with fiscal support and tax breaks to work collaboratively.
“This will be a real test for the EU about whether or not it can bring new financial resources into the discussion,” Fiott says. “It is one thing to call for more joint defense procurement, but if you are not able to resolve that properly, then you are not really making a coherent argument.”
The EU has already established the European Defense Fund primarily to support research and development, but some in the European Commission and member states would like to widen the scope to support joint procurement, Fiott says.
The bloc has also expressed concerns about the state of Europe’s defense industry, which has been largely shaped around the peacetime requirements of member states and has not been tested in the quasi-wartime operating environment that now exists.
EU proposals include a plan to map Europe’s defense industrial capabilities and provide a shared picture of production capacity “and the needs to ensure European security of supply to member states,” the European Commission said in a May communique.
The issue of security of supply came into focus after several countries found they were unable to supply arms to Ukraine because the arms’ country of origin refused to provide permission. Israel, for example, has refused to provide permission to send Ukraine Spike anti-tank missiles. Switzerland, producer of shells for the German Gepard anti-aircraft guns being supplied to Ukraine, has blocked attempts to reexport that ammunition.
The EU also wants to examine whether industry can recruit and retain key skills over the long term and aims to develop a critical raw materials initiative to ensure that the defense industry has continued access to those materials.
The proposals have already received the support of some in industry. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury urged member states to get behind the proposals, noting, “in Europe, we are stronger together and not when we fall back behind national borders and interests” (see page 58).
Denmark’s historic referendum to end its opt-out of the CSDP policies—in place since 1992—will also be important for Europe, Fiott says. The Danish will bring with them expeditionary warfare experience that has been partly lost since the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, and it paves the way for a Danish say in the EU’s push for wider discussion about procurements and the development of capabilities.
Spending Priorities
Lessons learned from the Russia--Ukraine war are likely to prompt the accelerated removal of Russian--made, Soviet-era equipment from the inventories of Eastern European nations. But it may also lead to additional investments in artillery and air, missile and drone defense.
“The ability of the Russian Armed Forces to employ deep strike is something that is hurting Ukraine’s civil and military infrastructure,” Loss notes. This may prompt increased interest in standoff weapons such as cruise and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, air and missile defense capability has the potential for Europe-wide collaboration, Giegerich says.
“Missile defense has all the characteristics of what you would need to do something meaningful together. It’s expensive; most countries cannot do it alone, and they would be doing something for the European defense industry while doing it,” he says.
A significant question for Europe’s bigger players, such as France, Germany and the UK, is whether the Russian threat requires a reconfiguration of their policies around strategic competition. All three countries had begun focusing their attention on a sustainable commitment to the Indo--Pacific region in response to a growing threat from China. “In the EU and NATO, there’s an awareness that we need to be careful we don’t exclusively focus on one [Ukraine] to the detriment of the other [China],” Fiott says.
Finally, Europe’s governments are also concerned about who could win the U.S. presidential election in 2024. The divisive Trump administration strained relations between the U.S. and NATO, with former President Donald Trump linking the worthiness of allies with how much they were able to spend on defense. A return of Trump or a Trumpian figure could lead to more division in the EU and NATO, Loss says. A Trump-like figure, he warns could be “detrimental for the future of the European Union and European cooperation more broadly.”
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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KC-390 – Re-Defining The Tactical Aerial Refuelling Space
Aviation Week - Sponsored By Embraer June 29, 2022
AfterThe need for strategic air tankers was originally driven by the need to keep strategic air bombers airborne around the clock to counter a nuclear threat. After that, tactical tankers emerged in response to a desire for greater flexibility in airborne operations.
The ability to move aircraft around dynamically to different bases, for example, makes them more difficult to target, while the ability to invest in a larger number of tactical tankers in contrast to a smaller number of strategic aircraft spreads the risk, and builds more resilience into the network with more tankers in the air. Having multiple tankers spread over greater geographies can enable more individual missions to be conducted, and more tracks to be covered.
Cost is always a consideration, which is why using an aircraft that is fit for purpose is so important. Strategic tankers tend to be much larger aircraft, often based on a civilian airline platform. Tactical tankers are typically (but not always) smaller, and in the case of the KC-390 Millennium from Embraer it has a cost-effective combination of initial purchase price and lower ongoing operating costs than its contemporaries. The KC-390 is also particularly nimble, with the ability to take-off and land from airfields with minimal ground support, on difficult terrain, on runways that are short, semi-prepared or even damaged.
Renowned as an aircraft with true multi-mission capability, the KC-390 is quick and easy to configure and can be made ready in hours, thanks to innovations such as the automated cargo handling system. It can operate as both a tanker and receiver aircraft for in-flight refuelling, by day or by night, the task being made easier and safer by the addition of an observer window and night vision cameras.
Indeed, the aircraft’s operating envelope is impressive. It can accommodate the speed and altitude requirements of both fixed and rotary wing aircraft flying at speeds from 120 KCAS to 300 KCAS from 2,000ft to 32,000ft. This is largely achieved thanks to its highly reliable twin IAE V2500 jet engines that give it a cruising speed of 0.8 Mach, the highest of any aircraft in its category, enabling it to conduct aerial refueling missions at the speed most suitable to the receiver aircraft. It also has an impressive range of more than 4,500 nautical miles with fuselage tanks.
Survivability is also a key attribute of the KC-390 Millennium. The combination of a human/machine interface (HMI) with a full fly-by-wire (FBW) control system, significantly reduces crew workload, whereas the enhanced situational awareness that HMI delivers also helps protect the safety of the crew and the mission. The systems installed are designed to improve crew co-ordination and ultimately optimise control.
The aircraft also features advanced mission software to provide total control over the mission scenario to the crew, while a fully integrated Onboard Maintenance System (OMS) looks after the health of the aircraft itself.
The Embraer KC-390 Millennium provides the perfect blend of mature, reliable technology with state-of-the-art thinking to ensure the best of all worlds in a tactical tanker. It is also designed as a practical aircraft, its robust four-wheel Bogie-type main landing gear in each LH and RH sides and intelligent engine mounting allowing it to take off and land on any surface soft or hard, and in any weather, delivering total operational performance.
In a world that demands flexibility from its aircraft, the KC-390 delivers. With its speed and performance, its operational efficiency, low life-cycle costs and high availability, the multi-mission Millennium is setting a new benchmark. And with its use of the very latest technology to deliver safety and reliability as standard, the KC-390 represents an exciting opportunity for those seeking a tactical tanker, and so much more.
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Opinion: Uncrewed Airpower Is Ukraine’s Path To Long-Term Security
Aviation Week - Bryan Clark June 22, 2022
After more than four months of beating back Russia’s unprovoked invasion, Ukraine is now buckling under the weight of Moscow’s concentrated assault in the nation’s east. Backed by rocket and artillery barrages more than 10 times what the beleaguered defenders can muster, Russian troops are expanding their gains in the Donbas, threatening to create a “land bridge” from Russia to the Crimean peninsula. More concerning, Russia’s blockade of Odessa has precipitated a worldwide grain shortage, and Ukraine’s surviving navy is no match for the two dozen ships and five submarines of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
The waterfall of Western aid that helped Ukraine defeat Russia’s initial offensive against Kyiv and the country’s north has slowed to a trickle. Ukraine has received only a handful of NATO howitzers, anti-ship missiles and rocket launchers and is running low on all types of ammunition. Facing a global food crisis, U.S. and allied leaders are suggesting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky negotiate a settlement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The problem with negotiating an end to the blockade or invasion is that Putin would continue to hold Ukraine, and the world, hostage. A month or a year from now, Putin may decide the terms of the agreement are unsatisfactory and again cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea or restart artillery bombardment of towns along the front lines.
Ukraine’s only path to security is regaining the ability to counter Russia’s attritionary tactics on the ground and to threaten the Black Sea fleet on the water. Ukraine could then negotiate from a position of strength and be prepared to enforce agreements it reaches with Russia.
The West cannot ship enough artillery pieces and shells fast enough for Ukraine to win a salvo competition against Russian troops fighting in their own backyard. The more than 200,000 shells planned in Washington’s most recent tranche of military assistance will sustain Ukrainian artillery for about a week. The U.S. and its allies will need to equip Ukraine to fight Russia the way NATO would—with airpower, precision weapons and superior surveillance and targeting.
Uncrewed aircraft could allow Ukrainian forces to use their small supply of precision missiles and rockets most efficiently by locating the most important or impactful targets. If armed, drones such as the MQ-1 Gray Eagles promised in the latest U.S. aid package could out-range Russian artillery and help Ukrainian troops push back Moscow’s firepower assault by attacking command centers and supply lines.
Most important, drones could provide overwatch and defense to Ukrainian shipping on its 300-mi. journey from Odessa to the Bosporus Strait. Ukraine’s handful of ground-based Harpoon and Neptune anti-ship missiles can reach only about 80 mi. from Ukraine’s coast. Even with targeting from a drone such as the MQ-1 or Turkish Bayraktar TB-2, Ukraine can only defend its shipping for about a quarter of the journey through the Black Sea. However, MQ-1s armed with Hellfire missiles or GPS-guided bombs could find and damage Russian warships that attempt to interfere with Ukrainian exports along the entire route.
Efforts to break Russia’s blockade would also need to address the Black Sea Fleet’s Kilo-class submarines. As part of its current intelligence sharing, NATO could use sonobuoys from P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft deployed in Romania or new MQ-9B Reaper drones to find Kilos lurking beneath the Black Sea and provide targeting for Ukrainian MQ-1 bomb attacks.
But for now, the point is moot. Pentagon bureaucrats placed the proposed MQ-1 sale on hold due to technology export rules and concern that the drones could end up in Russian hands. Defense officials also expressed reservations about training Ukrainian operators for the remotely piloted aircraft. But there are alternative approaches that would avoid these roadblocks. Transferring some of the U.S. military’s more than 200 MQ-1s as excess defense articles would not trigger the same reviews as a sale, and the aircraft could be flown under a government-owned-contractor-operated model until Ukrainian pilots are qualified.
Unable to “outstick” Russian invaders on the ground or protect its merchant vessels at sea, leaders in Kyiv will eventually be forced to negotiate a settlement with Moscow that leaves Ukraine and the world hostage to Vladimir Putin’s next gambit. The U.S. and its allies should provide Ukraine the uncrewed airpower it needs to fight like NATO would.
* The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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Bryan Clark is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
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Germany And Lockheed Martin ‘Sprint’ For F-35 Contract Finalization
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne June 22, 2022
BERLIN—Germany is pursuing an accelerated timeline for its Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter acquisition as the country looks to bring the aircraft into operation before the end of the decade.
Berlin presented a letter of request to Washington to acquire the aircraft just three days after announcing on March 14 it had selected the type as part of the Tornado replacement program, J.R. McDonald, Lockheed’s head of F-35 strategy and development, told a press conference here at the ILA Berlin Air Show on June 22. McDonald says the company and the F-35 Joint Program Office are “sprinting to try and understand the German requirements.”
Lockheed hopes to finalize what will be in the package by the fall in preparation for the German Parliament approval process. Package details are expected to include the number of aircraft, training needs and weapons requirements. McDonald says Germany requested Block 4-model aircraft at the Technical Refresh 3 (TR3) standard.
Berlin is expected to acquire around 35 F-35As to form a silver-bullet force that will take on the Tornado’s nuclear-deterrence mission using U.S. dual-key B61 nuclear weapons.
Discussions also are covering how to prepare the Buchel Air Base—the home of Germany’s nuclear-armed Tornados—for F-35 operations.
The acquisition of the F-35 is part of an approximately €33 billion ($34.7 billion) spending on aerospace programs through Germany’s newly approved €100 billion armed forces reequipment fund, announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
McDonald also notes the U.S. government is now more open to requests from European countries to have their F-35s produced at the Italian Final Assembly and Check Out (FACO) facility at Cameri.
Until now, only Italy and the Netherlands have been approved to have their aircraft built there. Switzerland has inquired about having most or part of its fleet built in Italy, as the Cameri facility is just a few minutes’ flying time from the Swiss border, and there is a significant Italian-speaking community in the country.
McDonald says customers had to recognize the rate of production from Cameri was much lower than that of the primary production site in Fort Worth.
“The most likely scenario would be that they receive some aircraft from Cameri and some aircraft from Fort Worth,” he says. “Building exclusively at Cameri may stretch out the delivery time.”
McDonald also acknowledges there has been a bid from Poland to accelerate aircraft deliveries in light of the security situation in Europe. He says it is unlikely countries will receive aircraft earlier than scheduled, but there could be what he calls “capacity opportunities” to accelerate the delivery profile. F-35 production capacity is 156 aircraft per year across all three of the final-assembly lines in Italy, Japan and the U.S.
Some 128 F-35s are now stationed in Europe for Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK, as well as U.S. Air Force aircraft based in the UK.
Check out Aviation Week Network’s full and extensive coverage of the ILA 2022 in Berlin. You’ll find the latest news from the show and digital ShowNews issues. Keep up to date and don’t miss the news as it breaks here at our dedicated show page.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Loss of Control After Takeoff, Part 1
Aviation Week - Roger Cox June 20, 2022
The pilot of a Pilatus PC-12 (N56KJ) and eight of his passengers lost their lives and three other passengers were seriously injured when he lost control of the airplane immediately after takeoff on Nov. 30, 2019. The FAR Part 91 personal flight was departing Chamberlain Municipal Airport (K9V9) in Chamberlain, South Dakota. The skies were overcast, snow was falling, and there was a fresh layer of snow on the ramp and the runway at the time.
Given the wintry conditions, icing was an obvious explanation for the crash. After a lengthy investigation, however, it turned out that other factors were responsible for the accident. A lightweight data recorder (LDR) was a key part of understanding why.
On the day before the accident, the pilot and his passengers flew into Chamberlain, arriving at about 0927 CST. A representative from a nearby pheasant hunting location, Thunderstik Lodge, picked them up and drove them to the lodge, where they stayed overnight. The airplane remained parked on the ramp, and during the night, snow fell.
On Saturday morning, the day of the accident, the pilot and one of the passengers rode to the airport with the lodge manager while the other passengers were hunting. The pilot brought a 7-ft. ladder from the lodge, and he stopped at a local hardware store to buy isopropyl alcohol for deicing. According to the lodge manager, the pilot and passenger worked for 3 hr. attempting to remove the snow and ice on the airplane. The ladder wasn’t high enough for them to deice the top of the empennage.
The lodge manager told the pilot they had room for their group to stay another night, but the pilot said they needed to get home. The manager later said snow was falling hard when the airplane departed.
The passengers arrived and began to board shortly after noon. The LDR began to record their remarks, the pilot’s remarks and the ambient sounds on board the airplane beginning at 1215.
Someone asked, “How much ice was there this morning?” Another person replied, “Oh, there was a lot.” There was no answer to a question about how well the ice had come off. One person is heard reciting a prayer and another commenting on being able to “get a lot of pheasants in only an hour.”
The pilot started the engines at 1219 and tuned in the Chamberlain automated weather observing system (AWOS) broadcast. It was “Chamberlain Municipal Airport automated weather observation one eight two zero zulu. Weather: wind, zero one zero at seven; visibility, three-quarters light snow; ceiling, five hundred overcast; temperature, one Celsius; dew point, one; altimeter, two niner three zero. Increased waterfowl and bird activity near the runway.”
At 1224, the pilot contacted Minneapolis Center on his cellphone and put his IFR clearance on request. Three minutes later, ATC cleared N56KJ to Idaho Falls Regional Airport (KIDA) via direct, to climb and maintain 8,000 ft., with a departure frequency of 125.1. The clearance was void if not off by 1235. After the pilot’s read-back, Minneapolis told him they had received reports of light to moderate mixed icing throughout the day.
While the pilot was getting his clearance, the airport manager was attempting to contact him on the local Unicom frequency. When the pilot announced he was about to taxi, the manager said, “It don’t look good to me. I don’t know what you guys are thinkin’.”
Asked if the runway was in good condition, the manager said, “I would say I can’t hardly keep up.” When the pilot decided to taxi anyway, the manager said, “The runway is not clear,” and “You guys are crazy...I got berms on this thing--I gotta get the snow outta here.”
The pilot replied, “I think we’re gonna be just fine right down this uh one track you’ve made six kilo juliet.” The airport manager said, “[if you] guys don’t mind some drifts.” Speaking to the right-seat passenger, the pilot said, “This thing will take off so fast,” and “I need most of the runway, but I’ll be good.”
The pilot turned around at the end of the runway and commenced his takeoff at 1231:58. The airplane lifted off in 30 sec., and one second later, an automated voice warning began to announce, “stall, stall, stall.” The airplane rolled left, reaching a left bank of 64 deg. and a maximum altitude of 380 ft. above the ground before it began to descend. The airspeed got as high as 97 kt. but decayed to 80 kt. at its peak altitude and bank.
A nearby witness reported that the engine sounded like it was “running good” although he could not see the airplane due to limited visibility. The sound of impact came at 1233. Only 62 sec. had elapsed since the beginning of the takeoff roll.
The Investigation
The NTSB conducted a field major investigation that was eventually classified as a limited Class 3 investigation. In addition to the FAA, the Swiss Transportation Board and Pilatus participated in the investigation. The final report was not published until May 19, 2022, almost 2.5 years after the accident.
The wreckage was located 0.75 mi. west of Chamberlain Airport. The debris path was 85 ft. long along a southerly heading. The left wing and engine were separated from the main wreckage, which consisted of the fuselage, right wing and empennage. The flaps were set to 15 deg. and the landing gear was retracted. Trim was in the takeoff range. Recorded engine data showed the engine was operating normally.
Chamberlain Airport is a public, uncontrolled airport with continuous attendance. Runway 31 is asphalt-paved in fair condition, 4,299 ft. in length and 75 ft. in width. The airport elevation is 1,696 ft. ASL and the nearby terrain is level.
Chamberlain is on the east bank of the Missouri River where Interstate 90 crosses it, and it is 112 nm west of Sioux Falls.
N56KJ was manufactured in 2013 and was not required to be equipped with a flight data recorder (FDR) or cockpit voice recorder (CVR). However, the airplane did have an L3Harris lightweight data recorder. The LDR was found to be in good condition, and it recorded both flight data and voice data. NTSB staff were able to download both sets of data.
The FDR specialist was able to construct a map overlay of the airplane’s flight path on Google Earth. He was also able to verify that the anti-ice and deice equipment, including pitot heat, prop heat, static heat, windshield heat and angle of attack (AOA) heat, were on. The left pitot heat went off before the airplane taxied, but flight parameters were unaffected.
The LDR recorded two voice channels, one for the pilot and front seat passenger and one for the cockpit area microphone. The duration of the voice recording was 18 min., 37 sec. and the quality of both channels was excellent. A CVR group consisting of investigators from the NTSB, the FAA and Pilatus was formed to audition the recording and transcribe all remarks and sounds heard.
No weight and balance document was found, but the investigator in charge (IIC) reconstructed one. He obtained passenger weights from the funeral home and survivors, determined passenger locations by talking with survivors, estimated the ramp and takeoff fuel weights, and used the weight of recovered baggage to make his estimate. He found the airplane weighed 10,557 lb. at takeoff, 107 lb. above the maximum allowable, and the center of gravity (CG) was well aft of the aft limit.
There were 10 seats on the airplane, but there were 12 persons on board. Based on their weights, two of the passengers were children, and they were seated in the aisle. If they were seated in the forward part of the aisle, the CG was only 3.99 in. aft of the aft limit. If they were seated in the rear part of the aisle, the CG was 5.49 in. aft of the aft limit.
A person at the airport took pictures and videos of the airplane on the ramp, during taxi and during takeoff. Using the photo taken of the airplane as it taxied out, Pilatus determined that the airplane was very tail heavy. The photos also showed that some snow remained on the vertical and horizontal stabilizers.
In Part 2, we’ll discuss the performance evaluation of the accident aircraft and the NTSB’s conclusions.
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Roger Cox
A former military, corporate and airline pilot, Roger Cox was also a senior investigator at the NTSB. He writes about aviation safety issues.
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Opinion: Uncrewed Airpower Is Ukraine’s Path To Long-Term Security
Aviation Week - Bryan Clark June 22, 2022
After more than four months of beating back Russia’s unprovoked invasion, Ukraine is now buckling under the weight of Moscow’s concentrated assault in the nation’s east. Backed by rocket and artillery barrages more than 10 times what the beleaguered defenders can muster, Russian troops are expanding their gains in the Donbas, threatening to create a “land bridge” from Russia to the Crimean peninsula. More concerning, Russia’s blockade of Odessa has precipitated a worldwide grain shortage, and Ukraine’s surviving navy is no match for the two dozen ships and five submarines of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
The waterfall of Western aid that helped Ukraine defeat Russia’s initial offensive against Kyiv and the country’s north has slowed to a trickle. Ukraine has received only a handful of NATO howitzers, anti-ship missiles and rocket launchers and is running low on all types of ammunition. Facing a global food crisis, U.S. and allied leaders are suggesting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky negotiate a settlement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The problem with negotiating an end to the blockade or invasion is that Putin would continue to hold Ukraine, and the world, hostage. A month or a year from now, Putin may decide the terms of the agreement are unsatisfactory and again cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea or restart artillery bombardment of towns along the front lines.
Ukraine’s only path to security is regaining the ability to counter Russia’s attritionary tactics on the ground and to threaten the Black Sea fleet on the water. Ukraine could then negotiate from a position of strength and be prepared to enforce agreements it reaches with Russia.
The West cannot ship enough artillery pieces and shells fast enough for Ukraine to win a salvo competition against Russian troops fighting in their own backyard. The more than 200,000 shells planned in Washington’s most recent tranche of military assistance will sustain Ukrainian artillery for about a week. The U.S. and its allies will need to equip Ukraine to fight Russia the way NATO would—with airpower, precision weapons and superior surveillance and targeting.
Uncrewed aircraft could allow Ukrainian forces to use their small supply of precision missiles and rockets most efficiently by locating the most important or impactful targets. If armed, drones such as the MQ-1 Gray Eagles promised in the latest U.S. aid package could out-range Russian artillery and help Ukrainian troops push back Moscow’s firepower assault by attacking command centers and supply lines.
Most important, drones could provide overwatch and defense to Ukrainian shipping on its 300-mi. journey from Odessa to the Bosporus Strait. Ukraine’s handful of ground-based Harpoon and Neptune anti-ship missiles can reach only about 80 mi. from Ukraine’s coast. Even with targeting from a drone such as the MQ-1 or Turkish Bayraktar TB-2, Ukraine can only defend its shipping for about a quarter of the journey through the Black Sea. However, MQ-1s armed with Hellfire missiles or GPS-guided bombs could find and damage Russian warships that attempt to interfere with Ukrainian exports along the entire route.
Efforts to break Russia’s blockade would also need to address the Black Sea Fleet’s Kilo-class submarines. As part of its current intelligence sharing, NATO could use sonobuoys from P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft deployed in Romania or new MQ-9B Reaper drones to find Kilos lurking beneath the Black Sea and provide targeting for Ukrainian MQ-1 bomb attacks.
But for now, the point is moot. Pentagon bureaucrats placed the proposed MQ-1 sale on hold due to technology export rules and concern that the drones could end up in Russian hands. Defense officials also expressed reservations about training Ukrainian operators for the remotely piloted aircraft. But there are alternative approaches that would avoid these roadblocks. Transferring some of the U.S. military’s more than 200 MQ-1s as excess defense articles would not trigger the same reviews as a sale, and the aircraft could be flown under a government-owned-contractor-operated model until Ukrainian pilots are qualified.
Unable to “outstick” Russian invaders on the ground or protect its merchant vessels at sea, leaders in Kyiv will eventually be forced to negotiate a settlement with Moscow that leaves Ukraine and the world hostage to Vladimir Putin’s next gambit. The U.S. and its allies should provide Ukraine the uncrewed airpower it needs to fight like NATO would.
*The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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Bryan Clark is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
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The Weekly Debrief: Why The F-35 Should Have Been The Star Of The Top Gun Sequel
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble May 31, 2022
Top Gun: Maverick is—no spoiler!—a movie. And here are two things the Paramount blockbuster, which netted $151 million on its opening weekend, is not: a documentary, or a fictional account based on a true story.
This seems obvious, but it’s important. The actors and director of the Top Gun sequel are in no way required to produce a realistic account of a strike mission. Their scriptwriters are, likewise, not obligated to constrain their characters to conventional tactics, or limit weapon systems to known specifications or even physics.
For the sake of storytelling, your author prefers that they don’t, as long as any fictional conceits make the story more entertaining. By the subjective standards of this column, the Joseph Kosinki-directed sequel to the 1986 action film succeeds in ways that few follow-ups ever have.
All of that stated, it is time—and here come the spoilers, so you’re invited to stop reading if you care deeply about plot details yet missed opening weekend—to ruin a central premise of the plot of Top Gun: Maverick.
In an early, expository scene, Capt. Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, a semi-successful hypersonic test pilot who has been re-assigned to train a detachment of elite Fighter Weapons School graduates for a seemingly kamikaze strike mission, explains that only the Boeing F/A-18E/F is capable of hitting a target in a GPS-denied environment. As a result, he explicitly rules out the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II as an option for the mission.
Unfortunately, it appears that Mitchell—er, Maverick—is not only foolish and dangerous (Iceman’s words, not mine): He’s also wrong. To borrow Maverick’s 2022 reply to a spiteful rear admiral: “Maybe so, sir. But not today.”
Maverick’s assessment of the F-35 was once correct. As filming of Top Gun: Maverick was beginning in 2018, the real stealth fighter was limited to an internal load-out of GPS-guided munitions. By November 2018, however, Lockheed Martin had integrated the Raytheon GBU-49 Enhanced Paveway II.
This dual-mode, GPS- and laser-guided munition gave the F-35 the ability to strike moving or stationary targets in almost any situation. If an enemy successfully defeated the munition’s anti-jam technology for receiving the GPS signal, the pilot could still designate the target with a laser. The F-35 could have performed the mission.
As Maverick is fond of saying, “If you think up there, you’re dead.” Likewise, if you think during a Hollywood movie account of air combat, you’re probably missing the point.
If you do, however, you might wonder why supposedly elite Navy pilots are dispensing flares to defeat radar-guided missiles, why an enemy with at least three Su-57 fighters somehow relies on 60-year-old SA-3s for ground-based air defenses and why the same enemy did not think to harden their mountain hide-out against anything except an attack by a 30,000-lb, GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator.
Despite some discrepancies in the details, Top Gun: Maverick highlights one of the biggest challenges in modern air combat. More than 30 years after Operation Desert Storm, GPS can no longer be relied on for accurate targeting by stand-off munitions.
Next year, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory plans to launch the Navigation Technology Satellite-3 into orbit, hoping to field a regional alternative to GPS guidance for munitions with greater resistance to enemy interference. Meanwhile, the Army’s Assured-Positioning, Navigation and Timing program is seeking to provide similar navigation support to dismounted soldiers.
To quote one of the sequel’s less-heralded characters: “Put that in your Pentagon budget.”
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Boeing Works To Rebuild Safety Culture
Aviation Week - Guy Norris / Sean Broderick May 26, 2022
A company that has been designing airplanes for more than a century, helped put people on the Moon and win wars with its airpower prowess should not need to overhaul its safety culture. But following years of missteps on major programs and two industry-changing commercial aviation accidents, Boeing had little choice: Its approach to safety, both internally and with customers, needed rebuilding.
• Company is changing core safety programs
• Push integrates internal, external data
• Buy-in from workforce is key
Nearly three years into what will be a long and at times difficult process, Boeing says it is confident the company—led by its executives but driven by its 140,000-strong workforce—is on the right track. Focused efforts are underway to strengthen its engineering discipline, enhance oversight, improve safety management, and foster needed transparency and openness within its workforce.
“We know each of these things [has] the opportunity to move the needle,” says Mike Delaney, chief aerospace safety officer, speaking in reference to the new safety initiatives. “An accident or an incident is almost always a chain of events. There’s a series of places where if you interdicted or broke the chain, you avoid the accident. We’re trying to invest in [these initiatives] and partner with the industry to leverage [Boeing’s] resources . . . to break a link in the chain.”
Commenting on the eve of the releasing the chief aerospace safety officer’s first annual report—a task Boeing must do as part of a shareholder lawsuit settlement linked to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of Boeing 737 MAX 8s—Delaney says establishing a “positive safety culture” is a key priority. “There are a number of attributes to positive safety culture, but probably the most important and foundational is having a just culture where people feel like they can speak up and talk about various issues or hazards and identify those,” he adds.
The initiative revolves around promoting an environment where employees “feel like they’re going to be treated fairly,” Delaney says. “And [when] people start to speak up, they know they’ll be listened to and the company will take that and act upon it,” he adds.
Fostering openness is a major plank of Boeing’s safety management system (SMS), a broad-based best practices framework for identifying and managing risks that is a key element of the company’s wide-reaching Global Aerospace Safety Initiatives (GASI) program. Investigations linked to the 737 accidents spotlighted problems between Boeing’s rank-and-file members and management, as well as with basic processes designed to identify risk before it becomes an in-service threat (AW&ST Nov. 23-Dec. 6, 2020, p. 16).
In some cases, issues that were raised, such as questions about a design, were not always adequately vetted. In others, the company simply did not do its job. Signs of the problems predate the 737 MAX. A 2014 FAA report on issues that led to the 787’s grounding (AW&ST April 29, 2013, p. 24) detailed mistakes within system safety assessments on that program, and the SMS itself is a product of a wide-ranging 2015 FAA settlement agreement that addressed 737, 747, 757, 767, 777 and 787 program compliance issues dating back to 2011.
More recent evidence points to broader problems lingering well after the second 737 MAX accident in March 2019. An August 2021 letter from the FAA raised concerns about a “company culture” that does not encourage open communication with the agency. Among the FAA’s recommendations was to use the SMS process to evaluate risks and develop corrective actions.
While acknowledging the journey will be long, progress is already evident, the company says. Among the signs, more problems are being reported, says Al Madar, vice president of operational safety and strategy and deputy chief aerospace safety officer.
“If you look at 2021 and 2022 for the first quarter over first quarter, there’s been a 32% increase in safety and quality reports,” Madar says. “March and April of 2022 are the highest months yet.”
While an upward trend in bad news reports may sound unsettling, it is a positive sign for an organization trying to shift its culture and encourage transparency. Internal programs that bring more issues to the forefront voluntarily—a pillar of any successful SMS—suggest progress.
“That data tells me that what we’re doing is working,” says Madar, a former American Airlines executive who led early implementation of Boeing’s SMS. “The most important thing we want [employees] to do in the SMS is report things that they see out there that are potential hazards—a hazard being anything that could potentially affect the safety, quality or compliance of our products.”
The SMS safety framework, which will be adopted enterprise-wide, is based on an established International Civil Aviation Organization industry model. Manufacturers governed by FAA’s Part 25 regulations will eventually be required to have their own systems under a rulemaking that is in progress.
An SMS is a set of policies and procedures that promotes safety and, when working correctly, reduces risk. Key to its success are buy-in throughout an organization and productive use of data. Internal data such as company reporting trends is a must. For an organization such as Boeing external data is crucial as well, due to the effect the company’s decisions have on its customers.
The company is feeding some fleet data from airlines back into the design organization or a quality system “to make it stronger,” says Tom Galantowicz, vice president and general manager of product and services safety and deputy chief aerospace safety officer. “We’re learning things during the build of the airplane,” he adds. “And that can feed into our design aspects, [which] can also feed back into our maintenance operations. It’s really taking what we’ve always tried to do in terms of having best practices across our programs and putting in place a much more formal system to make sure that’s successful.”
Enhanced sharing of data with the FAA is another key element.
“On a daily basis, things that we see from the fleet are fed over to the FAA at the same time that they’re fed into the Boeing system,” Galantowicz says. “Our safety engineering, design engineering and quality systems are all a part of the mechanism, together with the FAA feedback to help ensure that we’re reacting to the appropriate signals that are coming from that system.”
While data has always been shared with the regulator, the flow is increasing, he adds.
“The key piece to making this successful is the transparency with the FAA,” Galantowicz says. “We’re sharing more data and in much greater detail than we have in the past. And we’re sharing it at a frequency that we just didn’t have the capability [for] in the past.”
Work on other elements of the SMS initiative also is accelerating, Boeing says. These include a program to send company pilots to customer sites to provide face-to-face support and guidance on safe operations, similar to the current field-service representative model that has long been in place.
“Having somebody there that is participating in flight operations meetings [and] safety reviews—just like we have on the maintenance and engineering side—is really going to give us that balance as we go forward,” says GASI Vice President Lacey Pittman.
New training aids are also rolling out, such as a virtual procedures trainer for pilots that can be customized to match a user’s experience and capabilities. Combined with the new flight operations support, the efforts underscore Boeing’s recognition that its efforts carry significant weight in ensuring customers are confident operating the company’s products. The approach stands in stark contrast to the run-up to the 737 MAX’s entry into service, when Boeing pushed back against customer requests for extra simulator training (AW&ST Jan. 27-Feb. 9, 2020, p. 20).
The data pipeline into Boeing’s SMS will continue to expand as well. Advanced data analytics “will comprehensively support our safety management system,” says Vishwa Uddanwadiker, vice president for aerospace safety analytics and leader of the company’s efforts to develop Boeing Safety Intelligence (BSI). Designed to analyze operational data using system engineering and accident causation models, BSI is expected to provide insights into safety trends and potentially predict new hazards.
“We’ve looked at runway overruns and ETOPS events such as inflight shutdowns, those sorts of things,” he adds. The goal is to develop BSI into a predictive tool—one step at a time.
“The first C is comparison,” Uddanwadiker says. “The next C is correlation, which starts seeing correlated events and uncorrelated events. The third C, which is the holy grail, is causation. That’s when you know what is causing what, and that is where we want to go.”
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Guy is a Senior Editor for Aviation Week, covering technology and propulsion. He is based in Colorado Springs.
Senior Air Transport & Safety Editor, Sean Broderick covers aviation safety, MRO, and the airline business from Aviation Week Network's Washington,D.C. office
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Opinion: Can Turkey’s Role in NATO Be Saved?
Aviation Week - Michael Cisek June 06, 2022
Turkey’s recent decision to block accession talks regarding Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO has reignited questions about the transcontinental nation’s commitment to the 73-year-old alliance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Western countries are seemingly more united than they have been in a generation, with many increasing defense spending, it’s fair to wonder if Turkey itself is facing an inflection point. Will the nation play the part of loyal NATO member, agreeing to expansion in the face of Russian aggression, likely extracting some concessions in the process, or will it choose to deny the expansion, further complicating an already precarious relationship between the West and its uneasy ally?
Since it joined NATO in 1952, Turkey has served a vital security role as it bridges both Europe and Asia. Possessing NATO’s second-largest military, it has bolstered stability in a region ripe with upheaval. It has embraced its strategic location on the eastern and southern edge of the alliance, housing multiple allied installations within its borders such as Incirlik Air Base, which provided a crucial advantage in the U.S. war against the Islamic State group. More recently, it has supplied its Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones in support of Ukrainian resistance. Additionally, it acts as an important bulwark against a growing Russian presence in the Black Sea since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In recent years, however, Turkey has proven to be a mercurial, if not problematic partner. Against the urging of the U.S., Turkey, an original Joint Strike Fighter risk-sharing partner, proceeded to procure Russian S-400 air defense systems. This finally resulted in its expulsion from the F-35 program in 2019. Congress also voiced concerns about allowing Turkey to purchase new F-16 fighters. Subsequent disagreements regarding American support for the Kurdish rebels in Northern Syria led to a further deterioration of U.S.-Turkish relations. This support of the Kurds is at the heart of Turkey’s refusal to allow NATO expansion talks to begin. It believes Sweden and Finland harbor and support members of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which Turkey, the U.S. and EU classify as a terrorist organization. It should not be ignored that Turkey’s more aggressive behavior has coincided with the increasingly nationalistic approach of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has taken a more undemocratic approach toward the press, the courts and human rights.
That’s not to say all is lost. There are still ways for both sides to salvage this relationship and save face in the process. While unlikely, Turkey could agree to transfer its S-400 batteries to Ukraine, which would not only appeal to its NATO allies but could conceivably satisfy requirements for rejoining the F-35 program. Additionally, should Turkey agree to NATO expansion, Congress undoubtedly would reconsider its previous stance on allowing Turkey to modernize its F-16 fleet. Turkey is currently interested in acquiring 40 Block 70 F-16s in addition to 80 upgrade kits for its existing fleet. Turkey is adamant about the need to upgrade its fighter fleet, given its renewed hostilities with Greece over access to natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and Greece’s subsequent declarations that it is prepared to modernize its fighter force with F-35s after 2028. Should Turkey decline to cooperate, not only would the F-16 upgrade likely be denied, but future acquisitions of Western equipment could also be off the table. Turkey would then find itself with an aging fighter inventory surrounded by neighbors with fifth-generation jets. Furthermore, Turkey’s indigenous fifth-generation fighter, the TF-X, is not expected to enter service until at least the end of the decade.
At the time of its creation, NATO acted as a check against Soviet power and helped strengthen the bond between the U.S. and its European allies. While struggling to find an identity after the Cold War, NATO members have more recently been united by a shared sense of ideals, morals and democratic values. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine galvanized the alliance, further strengthening the belief that there is no place for authoritarian strongmen who publicly disregard democratic principles. Turkey is on the precipice. It can continue its slide toward authoritarian rule and forge a path independent of NATO, or it can be a vital strategic partner, the alliance’s eyes and ears, where East meets West. While it is able to straddle the line today, there may come a time when Turkey must choose which path it prefers . . . because it likely can’t pursue both.
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Michael J. Cisek is a senior associate at AeroDy.
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First Images of Australia’s Rivet Joint Lite ISR Platform
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne May 16, 2022
Australia’s radically modified Peregrine intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platform has finally broken cover.
Pictures of what is appears to be first MC-55A derivative of the Gulfstream G550 business jet reveal a plethora of antennae for the communications-/signals-intelligence-gathering (comint/sigint) mission.
• Delivery of first MC-55 is expected this year
• Development handled by U.S. Air Force Big Safari program office
The aircraft was photographed on May 6 by aircraft enthusiast Aaron Perlupo as it left Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport in Savannah, Georgia, the manufacturing hub for Gulfstream.
At first sight, the aircraft appears to have similarities to the Israeli Nachshon Shavit platform, also based on the G550, with its underslung belly-mounted pod. But closer inspection reveals an extensive antenna farm fitted atop and under the fuselage and along the wing, including what appear to be direction-finding aerials toward the wing tip. The belly pod does not appear to feature dielectric panels for sensors, suggesting that it may simply hold electronics to make more room in the cabin as well as provide additional surface area for aerials.
Unlike the Nachshon Shavit, the Peregrine features a bulbous tail cone—like that developed for the conformal airborne early warning version of the G550. However, its role is unclear, and the cone may simply provide more space for antennas and defensive aids.
“This appears to be an advanced communications-intelligence platform with comint and electronic-intelligence [elint] capability, potentially putting at least some Rivet Joint-like capabilities into a business-jet-size platform,” says Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Nonetheless, questions remain over how much of the intelligence-gathering can be processed onboard. Platforms such as the Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint, used by the U.S. Air Force and the UK Royal Air Force, use a mission crew of 25-30 personnel, including language analysts and electronic warfare operators collating the electronic order of battle in flight. The G550’s smaller cabin will only be able to accommodate a fraction of that number, Barrie points out, suggesting that either data is processed on the ground after the mission or potentially sent to analysts on the ground through satellite communications. The enlarged bulbous housing atop the vertical stabilizer may house a satellite communications antenna that could assist this.
The aircraft’s FAA registration, N540GA, reveals that it is currently registered to the U.S. Air Force Materiel Command’s 645th Aeronautical Systems Group, better known as Big Safari, the Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio-based organization that leads on the rapid development of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities for the U.S. and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers. Three more aircraft for Australia are expected to follow, all purchased through the FMS process and modified from G550 green airframes by L3Harris Technologies. First delivery is expected this year.
For Australia, the introduction of the MC-55 will represent significant growth for what Canberra refers to as the intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and electronic warfare (ISREW) mission, as the country focuses its attention on China.
The MC-55s will join a modernized ISR fleet that includes Boeing-built P-8 Poseidon maritime patrollers, E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning platforms and Northop Grumman MQ-4C Triton maritime reconnaissance uncrewed aircraft systems, as well as Boeing EA-18 Growler electronic attack platforms.
The Peregrines will replace a pair of Lockheed P-3 Orions modified for the ISREW mission through a program called Project Peacemate. Compared with the new Gulfstream platforms, the Orions were relatively covert—as they appeared outwardly similar to their now retired maritime patrol counterparts—featuring a handful of additional aerials on the belly.
Although smaller, the MC-55s seem to provide significant operational advantages over the P-3, including a higher-operational altitude that simultaneously boosts the performance of the collecting sensors and serves as a more comfortable environment for the operators. Both factors are influential, as more air forces adopt business jets for special missions that would have previously been performed by converted airliners or modified airlifters.
The G550 has been adopted as the U.S. Air Force’s new EC-37B Compass Call standoff jamming platform, whereas Italy is planning to expand its fleet of G550s to include aircraft capable of performing the comint mission. Sweden is already using a modified Gulfstream IV/G450 called Korpen as an elint platform. Bombardier’s global family of aircraft have been adopted by the United Arab Emirates for the comint mission as well as being converted by Saab into the GlobalEye swing-role surveillance system. Meanwhile, France’s Dassault will adapt the Falcon 8X platform for the French Air Force’s Archange sigint program, replacing modified variants of the Transall C-160.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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U.S. Navy Eyes International Pilot, Maintainer Training Center
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble April 27, 2022
DALLAS—A U.S. Navy proposal now under review would establish a dedicated training center for aircraft pilots and maintainers in foreign militaries, a service official said at Aviation Week’s Military Aviation Logistics and Maintenance Symposium here on April 27.
The proposal would build on the International Sustainment Center (ISC) opened by the Navy in 2016, says Balwindar Rawalay-VanDeVoort, a division director at the center.
The Navy established the ISC using existing facilities that had been underused, creating a dedicated space to repair Boeing F/A-18s and other aircraft operated by foreign militaries. Those aircraft had been repaired in the Navy’s Fleet Readiness Centers, but U.S.-operated aircraft received priority in those facilities, Rawalay-VanDeVoort says.
“So we looked at that [problem] and the International Sustainment Center was born,” Rawalay-VanDeVoort says.
The ISC also provides a limited amount of training for foreign pilots and maintainers, but that service could be expanded.
“Right now we’re in the process of having a business case analysis done to help us to determine if it makes sense to build an international training campus somewhere, and that way we can expand on that flight and maintenance training,” Rawalay-VanDeVoort says.
The expansion of international support for the Navy’s aircraft is going both ways. The Navy has been in the process of qualifying Australian suppliers to repair damaged components on F/A-18 and MH-60 helicopters, she says.
“Instead of bringing that F-18 all the way back to the United States to get repaired if there’s some battle damage, we are using the MRO facilities that are already available in Australia,” Rawalay-VanDeVoort says.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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New Leadership Reimagines U.S. Air Force Fighter Fleet Structure
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble Brian Everstine April 29, 2022
A new, long-term vision for the U.S. Air Force fighter fleet has gradually come into focus, and, if Congress approves, the changes for the tactical aviation portfolio could be stark.
A sixth-generation fighter to be acquired in the next decade by the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program will cost in the “hundreds of millions” each and enter service in the 2030s alongside a phalanx of uncrewed Collaborative Combat Aircraft with autonomous control systems, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told a House Armed Services Committee (HASC) panel on April 26.
• NGAD fighter to cost “hundreds of millions”
• F-15EX procurement shrinks to 80 fighters
Until then, the Air Force plans to nearly halve a Trump administration plan to buy at least 144 Boeing F-15EX fighters as a short-term replacement for more than 200 F-15C/Ds, cutting the procurement program off after ordering only 80 of the Eagle II fighters in fiscal 2024.
Although the Lockheed Martin F-35A is the only feasible alternative as an F-15C/D replacement in the near term, the Air Force instead aims to slash planned orders for the stealthy, single-engine fighter over the next two years by as many as 34 jets, then ramp up orders after F-15EX procurement is completed in fiscal 2024. The 33-year-old F-15E fleet, meanwhile, emerges from the fighter reshuffling unscathed.
Finally, the Air Force wants to offset cuts to other fighter fleets with major upgrades to the remaining aircraft.
Controversially, the Air Force plans to retire all Fairchild Republic A-10s over the next five years, along with the 33 Lockheed F-22s that are not equipped to fight in combat.
In exchange, the Air Force would like to invest money in major upgrades. More than 600 Lockheed F-16s would be upgraded to the Block 70/72 standard, including Northrop Grumman APG-83 active, electronically scanned array radars and the Northrop Grumman Next-Generation Electronic Warfare suite.
Meanwhile, the surviving fleet of nearly 150 F-22s also is in line for new equipment. Gen. Mark Kelly, the head of Air Combat Command, may have previewed some of the options in an April 27 tweet that celebrated the anniversary of the first F-22 public demonstration routine in 2007.
Kelly’s tweet included a concept image of an F-22 equipped with pods mounted on outboard wing pylons carrying apparent infrared search-and-track sensors, low-radar-cross-section fuel tanks and a next--generation air-to-air missile. The F-22 supposedly receives the first operational Lockheed AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile this year, but Air Force officials said during the April 27 hearing that the long-range weapon remained in development.
All of this fleet reshuffling would result in a 16% reduction in fighter fleet capacity through fiscal 2027, cutting a 2,138-strong fleet now down to 1,792 jets over the next five years.
Air Force officials are seeking to finance new fighter capabilities such as NGAD and F-35 Block 4 by retiring aircraft in the short term. The strategy has usually been met with resistance by Congress. Indeed, the Air Force’s total aircraft inventory in fiscal 2022 comes out about even with the fiscal 2018 fleet, despite proposals to retire hundreds of aircraft over the five-year period.
At the same time, Kendall has proposed reengining the F-35. The Pratt & Whitney F135 is meeting specifications, but Block 4 electronic upgrades risk overwhelming the power and thermal management system. Pratt designed the 43,000-lb.-thrust engine to provide bleed air from the compressor to cool the onboard electronics. But the Block 3F electronics introduced in 2016 already demand twice the optimal 15 kW of bleed-air offtake. The Block 4 upgrades, which include a new core processor, will require a 47-kW offtake from the compressor.
The Air Force is debating whether to upgrade the F135 or shift to the product of the Advanced Engine Technology Development program. The candidates include the GE Aviation XA100 or Pratt XA101 turbofans, which feature adaptive controls for bypass flow that can offer at least a doubling of cooling capacity compared with the F135.
As the tactical aviation portfolio is being reshaped, Air Force leaders have slightly widened the public discussion on the highly secretive NGAD program.
The NGAD platform has been built on a technology demonstration program that started in 2015 under DARPA called the Aerospace Innovation Initiative, which built at least one flying demonstrator by 2020.
The description of the program has changed over time. Until 2018, prime contractors such as Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop Grumman showed off concepts of crewed, sixth-generation fighters, aircraft featuring highly stealthy profiles with no vertical control surfaces that are difficult to keep hidden from low-frequency radars.
But NGAD development appeared to be delayed after a comprehensive review began in 2018. Long-term budget planning documents in 2019 showed that the Air Force had deferred a planned step-up in spending in fiscal 2023 to about $3 billion per year from about $1.5-2 billion, which potentially signaled the launch of an engineering and manufacturing development phase.
As chief of staff of the Air Force in 2019 and 2020, Gen. (ret.) David Goldfein always refused to confirm whether a crewed “sixth-generation fighter” was still included in the NGAD family of systems. Instead, Goldfein said repeatedly that the NGAD program was developing five critical technologies that were not intended to come together on a single aircraft. The statement did not preclude the presence of a penetrating counter-air fighter at the center of the NGAD family, but it did not confirm it either.
New Air Force leadership, however, has dissolved any such ambiguity. In written testimony submitted to the HASC, a joint statement from Kendall and current Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr., is explicit: “This family of systems will include a sixth-generation crewed platform as well as uncrewed combat aircraft and a cost-effective mix of sensors, weapons and communications systems.”
Kendall said he expects to be fielding the NGAD in the 2030s, but two lawmakers, Reps. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) and Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.), said they understood the program is delayed. In response to a question from Hartzler in a later April 27 HASC tactical air and land forces subcommittee hearing, Lt. Gen. David Nahom, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said the schedule had not appreciably changed and the program was on a good track.
A clue about the NGAD development schedule appears in the Air Force’s newly published five-year spending plan. The $1.36 billion step-up in funding now is planned in fiscal 2025, with a projected budget increase to $3.02 billion from planned spending of $1.66 billion in fiscal 2024.
The sixth-generation fighter at the heart of the NGAD program is already expected to become the most expensive tactical aircraft ever developed. The price of “hundreds of millions” each cited by Kendall aligns with a 2018 projection by the Congressional Budget Office, which estimated a unit cost of about $300 million each for a future penetrating counter-air platform.
With such a high price per copy, the Air Force is trying to shift to a different approach for its fighter fleet.
“We need a more affordable mix for the future, and the question is how we get there,” Kendall says. “And that’s one of the reasons I’m introducing the idea of uncrewed combat aircraft that are much less expensive and can be attritable.”
Meanwhile, Air Force planners are internally debating how future fighter squadrons will be composed with crewed and uncrewed elements. The newly branded Collaborative Combat Aircraft—formerly described as “Loyal Wingman”—builds on autonomous technology developed as part of programs such as Skyborg and Boeing’s MQ-28 Ghost Bat platform in Australia. It is “quite a few ways out,” Brown says.
Kendall has said he expects these aircraft to cost about half the price of the crewed platform, or potentially $150 million or more. In the short term, that is why the service is focusing on its four-aircraft mix of F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and the NGAD.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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U.S. Air Force Will Buy Boeing’s Wedgetail
Aviation Week - SBrian Everstine April 28, 2022
U.S. Air Force leaders, including commanders of the service’s Air Combat Command and Pacific Air Forces, have long called for adopting the Australian-designed Boeing E-7A Wedgetail aircraft to meet an air-moving-target-indication mission that the E-3 is struggling to serve. So the announcement of the purchase was long expected, but its timing was a bit of a surprise.
The Air Force in a statement said that after conducting market research, it had determined that the Wedgetail is “the only platform capable of meeting the requirements for the Department of Defense’s tactical battle management, command-and-control and moving-target-indication capabilities within the time frame to replace the aging E-3.”
• The service says the E-7A purchase is an “interim” solution
• USAF wants to pursue joint operational testing with the UK
The Boeing 707-based E-3 is facing stark readiness problems as the fleet ages, and its radar is not as capable as the Boeing 737-700-derived E-7A.
The announcement came via a short press release on April 26, well ahead of a potential contract and before any funding is approved. The service says the funding is expected in fiscal 2023, and the recently announced 2023 budget request includes $227 million in research, development, test and evaluation funds to support the acquisition of a rapid prototype. This spending plan is just beginning to be considered on Capitol Hill.
Boeing, in a short and quickly assembled statement, said: “We continue to be encouraged by the U.S. Air Force’s interest in the E-7A. We are confident in the E-7’s proven capabilities and look forward to delivering those capabilities to the U.S. Air Force.” The company referred any other questions, including possible production timelines and modifications, back to the Air Force.
A notional schedule plans to have funding for a second prototype begin in fiscal 2024, ahead of a potential production decision in 2025. The budget request looks to cut about half of the E-3 fleet in 2023—15 of 31 of the aircraft—and redirect the funding to pay for the replacement.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said in an April 27 House Armed Services Committee hearing that retiring the E-3 fleet would save about $1 billion per year over the five-year plan. He hopes to accelerate delivery of the first E-7A prototype but says he is not sure if that will be possible, even though the aircraft is in service and the 737 military line is active at Boeing’s facility in Renton, Washington. This largely is because the Air Force will have to make changes to meet its requirements, though those have not been determined yet. Therefore, a gap is likely to occur between the planned E-3 retirement timeline and when the first E-7 will be delivered.
The timeline likely cannot be shortened because it will take time to engineer and implement the modifications, and then timing will depend on “where we are in the production line in terms of being able to get aircraft,” Kendall says. “And so to accelerate that, there are some things that would have to happen to make sure that is possible; but I’m not sure they can be done right now.”
Kendall says the purchase of the E-7s will be an “interim solution” to the Airborne Warning and Control Systems mission as the Air Force looks to transform its ability to track large numbers of both air and surface targets through a “resilient combination of air and space intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems.” This effort is in its nascent stages, with research underway as part of Kendall’s series of what he calls “operational imperatives.” This started with requests for information to industry in February, which will shape the Air Force’s next fiscal 2024 budget request.
The E-7A was first developed for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) as part of Project Wedgetail, which began in 1996 and led to first delivery in 2009. The aircraft is also in use in Turkey and South Korea. The UK has ordered three aircraft, two of which are converted commercial airliners and one a new-build. The UK originally announced it would buy five, but reduced the total to three in its 2021 Integrated Defense Review.
In the lead-up to the buy, U.S. Air Force crews have been spending more time with RAAF E-7 crews. The Air Force said the alliance means it is able to “leverage this considerable investment and exceptional capability.”
The Air Force’s Operational Test and Evaluation Center (Afotec) wants U.S. personnel to be a part of the UK’s initial operational test and evaluation program, to speed up acceptance of the aircraft.
“There will be some differences between the UK plane and the U.S. airplane, but my goal for the E-7 Wedgetail, if it becomes a program of record, is that we only test in the United States the U.S. differences,” Afotec Commander Maj. Gen. James Sears says.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/us-air-force-will-buy-boeings-wedgetail
C-390 Millennium. The New Generation Airlifter, For Today’s World
Aviation Week - Sponsored By Embraer March 30, 2022
It was in 1929, when the Royal Air Force evacuated almost 600 people – mostly women and children – from the tensely troubled capital of Afghanistan to India, that a new page in the history of aviation was written. It was the first humanitarian airlift ever, the precursor of all such operations from Berlin to Saigon.
Fast forward almost 100 years, and little has changed. Aircraft are now being used on an almost daily basis to bring help to lands destroyed by conflict and war, and where extremes of poverty are made more terrible still by outbreaks of illness and disease, from Ebola to COVID-19. Whether a crisis is man-made or naturally occurring, the speed with which humanitarian support can be delivered – perhaps in the form of essential medical supplies, or food, water and shelter – becomes a matter, quite literally, of life or death.
In such scenarios, aircraft need to be able to deliver aid and support, in quantity, where it is needed most. But that doesn’t always mean in a city center, or within easy access of an established airfield. It can also mean out in the more inaccessible parts of a country, using hastily-built temporary landing strips, in difficult and sometimes potentially hostile terrain where not everyone is so pleased to see you. That takes a special type of aircraft; that takes an aircraft like the C-390 Millennium from Embraer.
With the Embraer C-390 Millennium, Embraer has demonstrated a new generation of thinking, and created a new generation of aircraft. This multi-mission military transport aircraft has been designed from the outset with flexibility at its core, setting a new standard in medium air mobility. It provides the perfect blend of mature and proven technology with state-of-the-art thinking to ensure the best of both worlds – reliability and new experience in performance.
The new technology it does feature is there to fulfil a very specific purpose: the combination of a human/machine interface (HMI) with a full fly-by-wire (FBW) control system, for example, significantly reduces crew workload, whereas the enhanced situational awareness that HMI delivers also helps protect the safety of the crew and the mission. The aircraft also features advanced mission software to provide total control over the mission scenario to the crew, while a fully integrated Onboard Maintenance System (OMS) looks after the health of the aircraft itself.
“Both the internal and external configuration of the C-390 Millennium can be quickly and easily changed to accommodate different needs, including humanitarian aid support. It can accommodate, for example, up to 74 stretchers and eight attendants. Or it can be configured to accommodate seven 463L pallets, or a combination of pallets, people and even animals, from medical staff to search and rescue dogs. It can also carry vehicles such as ambulances or even helicopters.
“In every configuration, passengers experience exceptional levels of cabin comfort. This is especially the case in long-haul flights where the wide cabin leaves space to stretch one’s legs – even with pallets and other cargo onboard – and the automatic temperature control, a well-equipped galley, accessible toilet and reduced vibration and noise throughout make for a more pleasant journey.”
Performance is at the heart of every feature of the aircraft: it has a maximum payload (concentrated) of 26 metric tons and its highly reliable twin IAE V2500 jet engines give it a cruising speed of 0.8 Mach which means the Millennium can deliver more aid much faster than any other airplane in the medium airlift market. And with a range of more than 3,000 miles, it can also deliver anywhere in the world to some of the planet’s most inhospitable places, with robust four-wheel Bogie-type main landing gear and intelligent engine mounting that allows it to take off and land on any surface, in any weather, from the most arid desert to the snow and ice of the freezing Arctic.
Crucially, the Embraer C-390 Millennium is already proven in the roles for which it is designed. During the height ofthe COVID pandemic, for example, the Brazilian Air Force employed the C-390 to deliver vital medical supplies, including ambulances and liquid oxygen, to remote communities in the Amazon Basin. Oxygen is more typically transported as gas cylinders, so the fact it was in liquid form – at much higher pressure – meant additional failsafes are required to mitigate the risk and to enable the oxygen to be expelled in an emergency – something that isn’t possible with a regular commercial aircraft. As well as canisters, on one occasion it carried a complete oxygen generating plant to the state of Amazonas. This was in addition to the weight of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), hospital respirators and vaccines it has already delivered.
After the 2021 Haiti earthquake, a C-390 was also used by the Brazilian Air Force to deliver some 10.5 tonnes of medicines, food and health equipment to help victims and support the emergency relief operation. And when adevastating explosion occurred in the port area of Beirut, Lebanon, it was again down to the Brazilian Air Force to getvital medicines and food supplies ‘on the ground’, something they achieved in just under 16 hours.
More recently still, and with the current crisis in the Ukraine still very much ongoing, an C-390 Millennium from the Brazilian Air Force played its part in helping almost 70 refugees – along with eight dogs and two cats – to make it safely home to Brazil as part of Operation Repatriation. The aircraft completed its mission of mercy having picked up its passengers from Warsaw thanks to a major diplomatic effort from the Brazilian Government.
It is not just the Brazilian Air Force that has come to recognise the true value, flexibility and performance that such an aircraft can bring. It has now been chosen by the Portuguese and Hungarian air forces to lead their humanitarian missions and to show that wherever you are in the world, and whenever a crisis occurs, you can always trust in the C-390 Millennium to deliver.
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KC-46 Cleared To Operationally Refuel F-22s, F-35As
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine April 01, 2022
The Boeing KC-46A Pegasus has been cleared to operationally refuel stealth aircraft, with the tanker now able to top up F-22s and F-35As.
The U.S. Air Force also has cleared the new refueling tanker to be available for certain short-notice alert missions.
U.S. Transportation Command boss Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost told lawmakers during a March 31 House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee hearing that the tanker has been cleared to refuel the fifth-generation fighters operationally as part of the ongoing Interim Capability Release (ICR) plan.
The KC-46 can also now serve on “Bravo” and “Charlie” alert. Bravo means aircraft and aircrew are available to depart in about 3 hr., and Charlie means aircraft and aircrew can enter crew rest within 2 hr. after notification and are able to be placed on rapid alert within about 12 hr., according to Air Force regulations.
Van Ovost, then the commander of the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC), announced the Interim Capability Release plan last year as a way to alleviate operational strain on KC-135s and KC-10s. Under the plan, the KC-46 would be cleared by TRANSCOM to fuel receivers as part of a regular assignment by the Tanker Airlift Control Center that oversees daily mobility missions. But the KC-46 is not able to be deployed for combat missions and the assignments are for operations such as training, exercises and supporting combat aircraft as they deploy.
AMC in a statement said its commander, Gen. Mike Minihan, made the decision in February.
“Our data shows that the KC-46A can now support nearly 85% of USTRANSCOM air refueling taskings, so we’re not going to hold back on offering this additional capacity to the Joint Force,” says Brig. Gen. Ryan Samuelson, AMC’s deputy director of strategy, plans, requirements and programs and the KC-46 Cross Functional Team lead.
The move to clear F-22s and F-35s to receive fuel from the KC-46 is notable because of a longstanding concern with the tanker’s Remote Vision System (RVS). A lack of clarity in the RVS raised concerns about the refueling boom scraping receiver aircraft, which would damage the low-observable coating of the fighters. The tanker has not yet been cleared to operationally refuel the Northrop Grumman B-2 stealth bomber.
There have been four ICR “releases” announced by AMC, with the last in December 2021 clearing the KC-46 to operationally refuel AC-130Js, HC-130Js, MC-130Js, C-5Ms and E-Gs. Previous announcements cleared the KC-46 to operationally refuel B-52s, C-17s, other KC-46s and all variants of the F-15 and F-16 with the tanker’s boom. The aircraft was first cleared to refuel F/A-18s with its centerline drogue.
The RVS is undergoing a redesign, called RVS 2.0, with the system undergoing its critical design review. The new system is expected to be installed beginning in 2024.
As of March 21, the service has 57 KC-46s in its inventory.
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Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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The Weekly Debrief: More Details Emerge About New USAF Mystery Missile
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble April 05, 2022
A single line item in a 101-page book of U.S. Defense Department funding requests for fiscal 2023 introduces a mysterious new air-to-air missile project for the Air Force.
The “Modular Advanced Missile” (MAM) program appears for the first time in the budget documents on line No. 31 of page 35 inside the Defense Department’s research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E) programs book released March 28.
The more detailed budget justification books will not be available until mid-April, so the only official information released about the program in budget documents so far is the program’s intriguing name, program element number (“0603036F”) and proposed fiscal 2023 budget, $125,688,000.
An Air Force spokeswoman replied to several questions about MAM on April 2.
“Modular Advanced Missile is an Air Force air-to-air prototyping effort,” the spokeswoman says.
The Air Force’s fighter fleet already operates the Raytheon AIM-9X and AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air (Amraam) missiles, and the service is developing the Lockheed Martin AIM-260 missile, but the Air Force’s reply confirms that the MAM concept falls into the same category.
The $125 million line item is not for a one-off study but probably a down payment on a multiyear demonstration effort.
“The Modular Advanced Missile program will lead to air-launched kinematic demonstrations from a USAF fighter aircraft,” the spokeswoman says. The technology being demonstrated will also “enable capabilities across any weapon system,” she notes.
Aviation Week requested information about the top speed and maneuvering characteristics of the MAM, but the spokeswoman says they are not able to disclose that information yet due to security requirements.
As probably intended, the program’s name does not give much away. A radar-guided missile, for example, comprises several modules, including sections for a nose cone and antenna, a guidance and fuzing system, warhead, propellent tank, rocket motor and exhaust nozzle. A heat-seeking missile has an infrared seeker in the nose.
Thus, a missile is made of several sections that could be referred to as modules. But these sections are generally not considered “modular,” if that term implies some degree of interchangeability. A rocket motor for the AIM-260, for example, could not be swapped out for the motor of an AIM-120.
But perhaps the “modular” term in the program’s title refers to such interchangeability for a future air-to-air missile.
“My instinct is that the ‘modular’ keyword and the strictly air-to-air and fighter details . . . suggest an effort to develop a common front end which can be attached to various different modular rear/propulsion configurations,” says Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. “I’d guess the aim is to allow a common missile program to service both fighters with internal weapons bays and those with external carriage and the ability to haul out-size loads, to go alongside AIM-260 as a future Amraam successor.”
Interchangeability, however, it is not as simple as swapping a medium-range propellant module for a section capable of longer range.
“You’d also need to be able to play around with the navigation and control laws and perhaps also have a scalable front-end [seeker],” says Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “I’d wonder if for a very-long-range engagement—with the likely target location error, etc.—you’d want a bigger terminal seeker basket, so possibly a more capable antenna.”
The Air Force regularly experiments with new missile technologies. In 2018, for example, the Extended-Range Weapon (ERWn) entered the budgeting process with the goal of demonstrating an interceptor against an enemy’s long-range missiles during boost phase. But the Air Force canceled the ERWn program a year later, saying the technology had proved infeasible.
Other missile projects have appeared briefly only to disappear from the public record with no explanation. One example is the Long-Range Engagement Weapon (LREW), a two-stage missile that was depicted as launching from a Lockheed Martin F-22 in a 2017 briefing slide by a senior U.S. defense official. The slide indicated that the LREW program was ready to transition into development after completing a two-year risk-reduction phase, but the LREW subsequently vanished from the public record.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Governments May Step In To Recharge Stalled FCAS Program
Aviation Week - Thierry Dubois March 21, 2022
In Europe’s Future Combat Air System program, all the talk since 2021 should have been about technology and the definition of an aircraft demonstrator. Instead, a bureaucratic label will be remembered as the obstacle that stalled the trinational effort, at least for one year: Phase 1B. Even before that preliminary stage could start, Airbus and Dassault Aviation had failed to agree on the workshare for the demonstrator.
- Airbus and Dassault disagree on work shares and flight controls
- Procurement agencies in firm talks with OEMs
The ball is now effectively in the procurement agencies’ court. Will French armament procurement agency DGA and its German and Spanish counterparts bang their fists on the table? They are in a position to do so: They are the customers, contracting authorities and representatives of the three governments endeavoring to make the best use of their countries’ industries to turn the concept of European defense into a reality.
It would not be the first time a government or the forces’ chief of staff admonishes a supplier and demands immediate results. Time is a key factor in military budget planning. A yearlong delay at such an early stage does not bode well for a long-term program. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is intended to enter service in 2040.
Dassault CEO Eric Trappier earlier referred to a Plan B, in case an agreement could not be reached. A 100% French solution, however, might deprive the country of some dimensions of the FCAS, a system of systems.
Other multinational air defense programs in Europe have recently moved ahead, albeit with various levels of success. Airbus and European defense materiel agency OCCAR signed a contract last month for the development of a medium-altitude, long-endurance uncrewed air system. France, Germany, Italy and Spain are participating. In March, Airbus Helicopters secured another long-awaited contract, this time to develop and upgrade the Airbus Helicopters Tiger attack helicopters of France and Spain. French officials insist the door remains open to German involvement.
The FCAS project was kicked off in 2017 by French President Emmanuel Macron and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Spain joined in 2019. Dassault represents the French side, and Airbus is its counterpart for Germany and Spain.
The FCAS will provide the three countries’ air forces with a fighter aircraft and associated remote carriers and combat cloud. The new-generation fighter (NGF) is the most salient and possibly most expensive “pillar” in the program. Dassault is the prime NGF’s contractor.
“The difficulty we have in this program is that we must have two airframers working on the aircraft, Dassault and Airbus, who are competing on the export markets [with the Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon],” Joel Barre, head of the DGA, said March 14 on Paris-based news channel BFM TV. “And each of them wants to hold the control stick. This does not make our task easier.
“We continue to talk at length, sometimes harshly with the OEMs,” he continued. “We are on the same page with the German and Spanish governments.” Last August, the three countries’ defense ministers signed the third implementing arrangement, known as IA3, for the FCAS program.
Further requests from Airbus have delayed the signing of the Phase 1B contract, according to Trappier. Phase 1B, essentially a research and technology step, will culminate with a precise definition of the demonstrators for the aircraft, engine, remote carriers and other systems.
Phase 1B was to cover the 2021-24 period as part of the preparation for the first flight of a demonstrator in 2027. Budgeted at €700 million ($770 million), this phase includes €500 million for the NGF, according to a French National Assembly report.
“French procurement agency DGA has prepared a contract, and we are waiting for Airbus to sign it with us,” Trappier said March 4. “I thought the most difficult part of the negotiation was behind us. But since September, we have been hearing the expression of complementary needs by Airbus.
“The red line is that I am the leader with associated levers to ensure we comply with the program schedule,” Trappier added. “If I have to follow a process of co-decisions, I am not going ahead.”
Does Barre of the DGA agree with Trappier’s approach? The three principles on which the DGA agrees with the OEMs, according to Barre, leave room for interpretation. “First, one leader should be responsible for each system and subsystem so that we hold the OEM accountable for execution,” Barre said.
“Second, we want the best to be responsible, the most capable, the one that has proven its expertise . . . the best ‘athlete,’” he added. “Third, between our countries, we want a balance between us and our OEMs.”
Airbus does not want the relationship to be that of a prime contractor to its suppliers. “We have managed, months ago, to find fair and balanced agreements on all six other pillars, where even under a defined leadership the competence and capacities of each partner are respected and they can participate in an equitable manner,” an Airbus spokesman says. “Airbus has made several proposals to converge also on the NGF. And we are supporting any solution that will respect both the skills of each partner and the lead role of Dassault Aviation.”
Part of the dispute focuses on flight controls. “As the prime contractor: We believe that to make a demonstrator, the one who defines the aircraft is also the one who defines the flight controls,” Trappier said. “Airbus flight controls work very well, but the related design office is located in Toulouse, not Manching.”
Airbus executives previously retorted that the design office in Manching, Germany, employs 150 flight control engineers and has experience on the Panavia Tornado and Eurofighter Typhoon programs.
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Thierry Dubois has specialized in aerospace journalism since 1997. An engineer in fluid dynamics from Toulouse-based Enseeiht, he covers the French commercial aviation, defense and space industries. His expertise extends to all things technology in Europe. Thierry is also the editor-in-chief of Aviation Week’s ShowNews.
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Answers To Key Questions About The Ukraine War And Aviation
Aviation Week - Sean Broderick Michael Bruno Ben Goldstein Guy Norris Helen Massy-Beresford Thierry Dubois Jens Flottau March 18, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the aviation industry massively and immediately and likely will have far-reaching consequences even in the long term. Russian airlines have been banned from flying to many regions, including the European Union and the U.S. Most non-Russian airlines are avoiding Russian airspace, if it is not already closed to them anyway. The EU has instructed aircraft lessors to terminate leases by March 28, and neither aircraft nor spare parts can be exported to Russia. Fuel prices have risen steeply, creating more financial pain for highly indebted airlines globally. Prospects for growth and recovery, bright just a few weeks ago, are in question again for airlines, at least in some geographies. And the violence has renewed aviation conflict-zone security concerns. Here are answers to some of the most pressing questions about how the war is affecting commercial air transport.
How do the sanctions impact Russian airlines? Sanctions and voluntary decisions by Western manufacturers and suppliers to cut ties with Russian and Belarusian operators are forcing affected carriers to become self-sufficient quickly. Airworthiness certificates granted by foreign regulators, such as the Irish Aviation Authority, covering aircraft on their registries for tax or other beneficial reasons must be replaced by Russian approvals—a move for which Russian President Vladimir Putin paved the way in new legislation adopted March 14.
Many of the Russian-operated aircraft registered outside the country are leased. Putin’s changes included a call for Russian airlines to register these aircraft domestically and take ownership of them. The moves paint a stark picture for lessors of hundreds of Western-built aircraft in Russian hands that they want—or need, based on sanctions—returned.
Meanwhile, spare parts sales are no longer permitted by the major airframe and engine manufacturers. More broadly, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) suspended all certificates it has issued, including certificates for products, parts, appliances, organizations and flight-training devices, when the holder of the certificate is based in Russia.
Russian airlines are also blocked from entering the airspace of the EU and U.S., among other regions. Domestic flights are continuing, subject to availability of spare parts.
Are aircraft still insured? The EU is prohibiting insurers and reinsurers from covering risks in air transport in Russia and Belarus. Insurers and reinsurers were effectively required to terminate contracts as of Feb. 26. Russian airlines are likely to have aircraft insured by Russian state-backed insurers for operations inside the country. However, multibillion-dollar claims by lessors for a total loss of their Russia-based fleet are emerging in the London contingency insurance market that may be contested.
What are the chances of the leased fleet being returned? Most leasing industry executives believe that it is highly unlikely that they will recover any significant number of aircraft from Russia. For the most affected companies, around 7% of their portfolio is at stake.
What is the long-term perspective for Russian airlines? Could Russian become another Iran? Two-thirds of the 1,260 aircraft in Russian scheduled and nonscheduled operators’ fleets were built by Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier (now MHI RJ Aviation) or Embraer, the Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s Commercial Aviation Fleet Discovery database shows. Losing access to international markets and the decline in what was a booming domestic sector before the war will create excess capacity—and open the door for parts cannibalization within subfleets if it becomes necessary.
Sustaining operations for any length of time without after-market support will require securing parts on the black market or via complex, opaque means similar to how airlines in targeted countries such as Iran have evaded Western sanctions to keep their Airbus and Boeing aircraft flying. Intermediaries such as businesses serving as fronts for the operators in neutral or nonsanctioned countries could purchase needed parts and funnel them into the country, for example. However, EASA has specified that the use of goods, technical assistance or services “whether or not originating in the [European] Union” is prohibited “to any natural or legal person, entity or body in Russia or for use in Russia.”
Such subterfuges cannot fill the entire product-support gap. Russian and Belarusian operators will likely face challenges accessing updated technical data for Airbus and Boeing aircraft—much of it provided electronically. No OEM support also means no consultation on issues such as nondestructive test results or repair needs after hard landings.
How meaningful are the operational challenges of avoiding Russian airspace? Since the beginning of March, at least 21 airlines have routed flights around Russian airspace, estimates aircraft tracking specialist Flightradar24. Routes between Europe and Asia have been most affected. The penalties include huge increases in fuel burn at a time of high volatility in fuel costs, greater crew and equipment use costs, reduced payloads in some cases and increased exposure to the risks and costs of diversions and aircraft-on-the-ground events.
Finnair, closest to the northern borders of Russian airspace, is among the most directly affected, with additional flight times from Helsinki to Asia ranging from around 1.5 hr. to Singapore to 3.5 hr. on the route to Tokyo. Japan Airlines (JAL) and British Airways are similarly affected on routes linking London with Tokyo, while some services from elsewhere in Europe—such as Paris to Beijing—face even more extreme changes, with up to 6 hr. of additional flight time. The unmanageable extra time led JAL to eventually stop operating European routes, such as to Helsinki, Frankfurt and Paris. It is still flying the London route, explaining: “It has the shortest flight time when we use the detour route and is most convenient for transit passengers.”
Flights from Southeast Asia to North America have also routinely used Russian airspace until recently. Singapore Airlines’ nonstop service from New York to Singapore, for example, since Feb. 23 has been flying a more southerly eastbound route, adding around 40 min. of flight time.
Are concerns regarding aviation security outside Ukraine justified? Airspace restrictions put in place early in the conflict helped ensure that commercial operators had ample warning to steer clear of Russia’s advance into Ukraine. Officially, national carrier Ukraine International Airlines, citing a notice to air missions issued by the country’s State Aviation Administration closing the country’s airspace, has suspended all operations until March 23. The continuing war could cause that time frame to be extended. Other operators have taken similar steps.
Russia’s foreign affairs ministry used Twitter to deliver an ominous warning to “international civil aviation and other means of transport” helping Ukraine by transporting weapons. “We call on [European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization] countries to stop the thoughtless flooding of the unviable [Kyiv] regime with the latest weapons systems in order to avoid enormous risk,” the ministry tweeted March 10.
Coincidentally, EASA in early March launched the Euro-pean Information Sharing and Cooperation Platform on Conflict Zones, an initiative meant to give participating states and their operators access to the latest data and information when planning flights near areas of conflict. Started in response to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Eastern Ukraine in July 2014—investigators concluded Russian forces had shot down the Boeing 777-200ER—the initiative went live after a nine-month trial period. The timing of the invitation-only platform’s launch “has no direct link to the current Ukraine crisis,” EASA says.
How do the sanctions affect the Irkut MC-21 and Sukhoi Superjet programs? There will almost certainly be more delays to the programs, and it will be hard to sustain operations at scale. The first certified variant of the MC-21 is powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1400G engines and equipped with other Western components now subject to sanctions. As locally produced composites are to be used for wing production in the future, supplemental certification will be needed and is expected by midyear. Also, the Aviadvigatel PD-14-powered version MC-21-310 was slated to be certified this year. The United Aircraft Corp. expects the -310 to be delivered to customers for the first time in 2024.
To mitigate the effect of Russia’s isolation, the government has told industry to speed up the Superjet-New project, in which Western components are replaced by Russian parts. The new variant is to be certified within 14 months, according to the latest plans. There will be an impact on spares suppliers for the in-service fleet.
On the Superjet, Thales is in charge of the avionics suite, and the aircraft assembly line will not receive such systems any longer. Safran Aircraft Engines is responsible for 50% of the SaM 146 engine, under the Powerjet joint venture with UEC Saturn. In design and manufacturing, Safran is in charge of the high-pressure (HP) compressor, HP turbine and nacelle integration. Safran and UEC also share the work of maintenance, repair and overhaul, with the former taking care of the heaviest operations. EU sanctions mean Safran engineers no longer provide maintenance, training, call-center service or documentation.
Are Boeing, Airbus and other OEMs facing parts and material shortages? In the big picture, OEMs are not facing significant parts and material shortages. The reason is because the COVID-19 pandemic—along with Boeing’s halting production of the 737 MAX and 787 programs—wiped out roughly two years’ worth of production, and OEMs reportedly have mountains of backed-up inventory to process from their supply chains. Titanium, nickel and other raw material supplies are expected to be reliable for 1-2 years.
The war in Ukraine is expected to exacerbate costs of raw materials and energy in the short term. However, costs started rising significantly last summer, and the war’s effects appear to be more of the same rather than a major new shock. At the same time, costs hit different levels of the industrial base differently. Upper-tier companies tend to operate under long-term agreements for materials, for instance, and many contracts have “elevator” clauses that account for rising costs. Lower-tier companies are more vulnerable to quick price escalations.
Also, the International Aerospace Quality Group, which oversees AS9100 certification, has announced it is suspending all Russian member companies and withdrawing all certificates issued in that country. The action will make it much harder for those companies—including Airbus and Embraer—still choosing to buy Russian-sourced titanium, unless they now put in place their own quality systems.
Should Airbus and Boeing revisit plans to raise production rates? Executives from Airbus and Boeing stood firm on their companies’ planned airliner production rate increases during separate speeches at Aviation Week events in March. The OEMs point to predictable rebounds after crises such as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak or the 2008 financial collapse, as well as the long-term historic growth trend in commercial air traffic due to growth in middle classes worldwide. They also stress the potential for environmental goals, starting with net-zero emissions by 2050, to spur acquisition of new aircraft that are more fuel-efficient. Recent analyst reports show a consensus that Boeing will raise its official 737 production rate to 31 new aircraft this year, although 787 rates will remain in the low single digits. All of Airbus’ rate forecasts are considered relatively feasible after last year’s new-order haul and deliveries.
What is the impact on air travel demand globally? Air travel demand will take a hit around the world following the invasion, although some markets will be hit harder than others. The most affected market will be Russia itself, from which international flying will be mostly gone for the foreseeable future, and domestic demand will be harmed as the ruble plunges and the full weight of economic sanctions is felt. However, because Russia makes up around just 2% of global air travel demand, the direct impact on global available seat kilometers will be minimal.
Elsewhere, rising jet fuel prices will add to the cost of airfares, putting a damper on price-sensitive leisure travelers that comprised the bulk of the demand recovery in many large domestic markets. At the same time, inflation and rising energy costs mean consumers will have less disposable income to spend on travel. But high rates of saving during the pandemic and strong pent-up demand for travel could help airlines pass along a modest increase in prices.
The greatest impact will probably be felt in long-haul international markets, which require more fuel and have higher trip costs. Fare increases will be especially pronounced on these flights, possibly harming demand at a time when long-haul markets were already struggling to recover from the pandemic. Airlines could trim their international summer schedules from original plans.
What are the consequences for air cargo? Air cargo operators are now experiencing the same challenges as their passenger counterparts: Airspace closures and restrictions mean longer routes—carrying more fuel leaves less room for freight—and the grounding of large chunks of air cargo capacity, including Ukrainian Antonov aircraft and Russian cargo operators such as AirBridgeCargo Airlines, part of the Volga-Dnepr Group, changes the balance of the air cargo fleet around the world.
“We can expect cargo markets to be impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General Willie Walsh says. “Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. Capacity is expected to come under greater pressure, and rates are likely to rise.”
“While we were seeing some clear signs of normality returning, there is still so little slack in the global air cargo system,” CLIVE Data Services managing director Niall van de Wouw says. “It is quite unlikely that the trend of slowly declining rates will continue in March. The war in Ukraine causes immediate capacity issues to Northeast Asia and, therefore, will likely push up rates even more for these particular markets.”
What could be the fallout for the industry’s environmental targets? focus on sustainable sources could, in theory, be good news for the environment, providing an incentive to speed up the development of cleaner, greener energy sources.
In the aviation sector, major players are already investing in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and e-fuels, which are seen as a practical way to reduce emissions while longer-term solutions such as electric aviation are still in development.
However, in aviation as well as in other sectors, higher energy prices in the short term make investment in longer-term green solutions more difficult.
The war could also end up having an impact on long-term CO2 reduction targets, given China’s delicate geo-political position, which could give the country more leverage when it comes to setting out updated climate goals ahead of COP27 this year.
The aviation industry’s 2050 net-zero emission goal, which IATA committed to last October, met with resistance from Chinese carriers: They had wanted to align aviation targets with the country’s less demanding 2060 goal.
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Sean Broderick
Senior Air Transport & Safety Editor Sean Broderick covers aviation safety, MRO, and the airline business from Aviation Week Network's Washington, D.C. office.
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Michael Bruno
Based in Washington, Michael Bruno is Aviation Week Network’s Senior Business Editor and Community and Conference Content Manager. He covers aviation, aerospace and defense businesses, their supply chains and related issues.
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Ben Goldstein
Based in Washington, Ben covers Congress, regulatory agencies, the Departments of Justice and Transportation and lobby groups.
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Guy Norris
Guy is a Senior Editor for Aviation Week, covering technology and propulsion. He is based in Colorado Springs.
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Helen Massy-Beresford
Based in Paris, Helen Massy-Beresford covers European and Middle Eastern airlines, the European Commission’s air transport policy and the air cargo industry for Aviation Week & Space Technology and Aviation Daily.
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Thierry Dubois
Thierry Dubois has specialized in aerospace journalism since 1997. An engineer in fluid dynamics from Toulouse-based Enseeiht, he covers the French commercial aviation, defense and space industries. His expertise extends to all things technology in Europe. Thierry is also the editor-in-chief of Aviation Week’s ShowNews.
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Jens Flottau
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens is executive editor and leads Aviation Week Network’s global team of journalists covering commercial aviation.
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https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ukraine-war-aviation-key-questions-answers
The Week In Technology, March 21-25, 2022
Aviation Week - Graham Warwick March 22, 2022
Embraer Launches Autonomy Project
Embraer has forged a set of partnerships for a project to develop systems for autonomous aviation. The stated goal of Project EASy is to enable the Brazilian manufacturer to develop new, efficient and sustainable projects, including spinoff Eve’s electrical vertical-takeoff-and-landing air taxi.
Embraer has partnered with Near Earth Autonomy, Iris Automation and Ansys in the U.S. as well as Daedalean in Switzerland and Motora.ai in Brazil. “The companies will work together in an open innovation approach to develop and evaluate several new autonomous flight technologies, both in simulation and real flight conditions,” Embraer says.
“Given Embraer’s leadership, this partnership is important in making autonomous flight more ubiquitous and safe for everyone,” Iris CEO Jon Damush says.
In October 2019, Embraer demonstrated autonomous taxiing by a Legacy 500 business jet fitted with elements of an automobile self-driving system. That project was a collaboration with the High-Performance Computing Lab (LCAD) at Brazil’s Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES). The elements included GPS, cameras, a lidar sensor and artificial-intelligence algorithms.
Among the Project EASy partners, Near Earth is developing lidar-based systems to enable autonomous flight, hazard avoidance and safe landing by unmanned and mobility aircraft. Iris is producing a computer-vision detect-and-avoid system for autonomous aircraft. Meanwhile, Daedalean is working on autonomous piloting systems for existing and future aircraft.
Ansys will provide physics-based sensor-simulation expertise. Motora.ai—founded in 2014 by former students from the LCAD at UFES to develop fleet-management and driver-assistance systems—will bring agile and flexible software integration to the project, Embraer says.
Collins Cargo System for Natilus UAV
Collins Aerospace is designing a specialized cargo-loading system for the N3.8T large unmanned cargo aircraft under development by Natilus. The U.S. startup has begun construction of the tails for prototype N3.8T, aiming for first flight in 2023.
San Diego-based Natilus plans to develop a family of unmanned cargo aircraft with a blended wing-body configuration that can increase cargo volume by 60% compared with conventional tube-and-wing freighter aircraft. The first member of the family, the N3.8T is a twin-turboprop short-haul feeder with a 3.8-ton cargo payload.
“For the Natilus family of aircraft, we’re adapting proven cargo handling designs with millions of flight hours in service to create a new system that efficiently uses the additional space of the Natilus blended-wing design to maximize cargo capacity,” says Alison Davidson, Collins vice president and general manager for cargo systems.
The cargo loading system Collins is developing for the N3.8T prototype will include rolling ball mats, attachments and standard flip-up latches and will accommodate LD3-New and LD3-45 containers as well as bulk loads.
Hydrogen Propulsion Pioneers Team Up
Universal Hydrogen (UH2) and fuel-cell powertrain developer H3 Dynamics have partnered to develop zero-emission propulsion systems for unmanned aircraft, air taxis and new-design regional aircraft.
UH2 will provide green hydrogen fuel logistics using its modular capsule technology while H3 will supply fuel-cell powertrains. The collaboration will focus initially on unmanned air vehicles, from small drones to large cargo aircraft.
The partnership extends to manned aircraft, including electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicles and other light aircraft segments. The two companies also plan to collaborate on new-build regional airliners with distributed pro
pulsion.
“This partnership is an instant force multiplier for the scale and reach of both companies and will enable us to move faster to offer true zero-emission solutions across a broad range of aircraft,” says Paul Eremenko, UH2 co-founder and CEO. The companies are looking at starting up a joint R&D center in Toulouse, where each already has an engineering presence.
“This collaboration between H3 Dynamics and Universal Hydrogen allows us to complete the hydrogen value chain for several rapidly growing aviation segments and to do it much more quickly,” he says.
H3 is developing an integrated hydrogen-electric powertrain nacelle, designed to enable distributed propulsion for a range of aircraft sizes. Instead of a single centralized, fuselage-mounted fuel-cell system, the concept distributes multiple integrated powertrains in modular nacelles under the wing.
UH2 is creating a logistics system that transports hydrogen in modular capsules over the existing freight network from production sites to airports. To kick-start demand, the company is developing a hydrogen-electric powertrain retrofit for ATR 72 and De Havilland Canada Dash 8-300 regional turboprops.
Denmark Accelerates E-Fuels Plans
Citing the need to loosen Russia’s grip on the European energy supply, Denmark’s government has announced a series of measures to accelerate the production of green fuels from renewable energy, including synthetic e-kerosene for aviation.
An agreement to scale up “power-to-X” (PtX) fuel production was reached by all Denmark’s main political parties “in the shadow of the serious situation in Europe, where energy dependence and acceleration of green alternatives are more relevant than ever,” the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities says. The deal aims to produce green fuel for aircraft, ships and trucks for domestic and export markets.
The agreement includes a 1.25 billion Danish krone ($185 million) subsidy scheme in the form of a government tender for green hydrogen production. Improved incentives for producers are also part of the plan. Denmark says it has directed 3 billion krone in funding to PtX since 2019.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in January set a goal for all domestic aviation to be fossil-free by 2030. Under the new agreement, the country plans to build an electrolysis capacity of 4-6 gigawatts by 2030, which will place it in the top three green hydrogen producers in Europe, the ministry said.
“With the agreement, the starting shot is for a green business and export adventure, which is now also about becoming independent of Russian energy sources as soon as possible,” says Simon Kollerup, minister of industry, business and financial affairs.
Dutch Hydrogen Valley Airport Plan
A Dutch consortium has received European funding to develop a green hydrogen production capability at Groningen Airport Eelde in the northeastern Netherlands to support zero-emission regional aviation.
A grant for half the €3.5 million ($3.9 million) cost of the Waviater project (for hydrogen production technology for the aviation sector and energy applications at a regional level) has been awarded by the Northern Netherlands Alliance using funds from the European Union’s REACT-EU pandemic recovery fund.
Under the project, an electrolyzer will be developed adjacent to the airport to produce green hydrogen to fuel light aircraft, drones and ground vehicles. The electrolyzer will be powered with renewable electricity from an existing solar park at Groningen, which plans to establish itself as Europe’s first “hydrogen valley airport.”
“Our goal is to produce a comprehensive system for the production, distribution and use of hydrogen,” says Jonas van Dorp, head of aviation marketing and development for the airport. The project runs to October 2023, by which time the installation is planned to be operational.
The decentralized production of green hydrogen requires small to medium-size electrolyzers that can produce hydrogen onsite at acceptable cost; current electrolyzers are expensive. Under Waviater, the project partners plan to develop a scalable and sustainable electrolyzer that is cheaper, more efficient, and does not use scarce and valuable materials—and for which manufacture can be automated.
Green hydrogen produced by the Waviater project will be used onsite initially. “In subsequent projects, we can further process the hydrogen and, with the aid of high-pressure technology, make it suitable for use in the transportation sector and elsewhere,” says Toon Hermans, managing director of project leader Demcon, a Dutch engineering consultancy.
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Graham Warwick
Graham leads Aviation Week's coverage of technology, focusing on engineering and technology across the aerospace industry, with a special focus on identifying technologies of strategic importance to aviation, aerospace and defense.
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https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/emerging-technologies/week-technology-march-21-25-2022
Embraer Recovery Driven By Commercial, Services, Executive Jets?
Aviation Week - Jens Flottau March 10, 2022
Embraer expects to expand output both in its commercial and executive jet businesses in 2022 in an effort to compensate revenue shortfalls in its struggling defense business, hit by a reduction of Brazil’s KC-390 military transport order.
According to Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer is targeting 60-70 commercial aircraft and 100-110 executive jet deliveries in 2022. That compares to 48 and 93 aircraft deliveries, respectively, for 2021. Revenues are to increase to $4.5-5 billion from $4.2 billion (2020: $3.7 billion) with the group targeting an adjusted operating profit margin of 3.5-4.5%.
Embraer achieved a $167 million adjusted operating profit in 2021, following a $101 million loss a year earlier. The net loss narrowed from $464 million to $29 million and Neto said the company will work “diligently” to reach a net profit again in 2022.
Like much of the rest of the industry, Embraer has been going through a tumultuous two-year period as it struggled with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. The group had to reintegrate the commercial aircraft division after Boeing walked away from a deal to take control of the unit in early 2020. Deliveries of commercial aircraft fell significantly. Embraer’s future strategy includes the possible launch of a new turboprop aircraft and a venture into advanced air mobility through its Embraer Eve spin-off.
Embraer’s slow revenue recovery was mainly driven by the services and support unit, with revenues increasing by 23% to $1.1 billion, followed by commercial aircraft, sales of which were up 18% to $1.3 billion. By revenues, the executive jet business is now almost exactly the same size as services, at $1.1 billion for 2021, up 5.5% YOY. The defense business contracted by 9% YOY to $596 million mainly because of the Brazilian Air Force’s decision to reduce its order for KC-390s from 28 to 22 aircraft.
Neto said March 10 that Embraer does not see any “major impact” of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the company has built up sufficient supplies inventory for the short- and medium-term. Nonetheless, Embraer is “monitoring the situation on a daily basis.”
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Jens Flottau
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens is executive editor and leads Aviation Week Network’s global team of journalists covering commercial aviation.
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Opinion: Is This The Start Of A New Defense Supercycle?
Aviation Week - Byron Callan March 14, 2022
It is too soon to answer definitively the question as to whether the war in Ukraine will result in a mini upcycle, with incremental defense demand peaking in 2023-25 and then returning to a relatively staid budget outlook, or if it will mark the start of another longer cycle in which defense spending will grow annually as fast or faster than GDP for the balance of the 2020s.
Defense stocks have been signaling a significant change. Some in Europe and the U.S. were outperforming broader market indices before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and then soared after the conflict erupted. The moves are attributable to higher defense spending announced but not defined by some European countries and prospects for higher U.S. defense spending as well. The sector also has benefited from investors looking for safer places to put their money amid the turmoil and uncertainty caused by the war and sanctions.
Markets are asserting that 2023-25 financial expectations before the war for most U.S. and European defense contractors will be higher than consensus estimates currently show. According to data on consensus sell-side analysts’ sales and earnings-per-share estimates collected by Bloomberg, there have been no significant upward revisions—yet. Analysts can and should make their own projections, but the changes wrought by the war in Ukraine will not be reflected in the U.S. fiscal 2023 defense budget that will be sent to Congress soon, and European defense budget changes also may not be detailed for months. It could take weeks or months for consensus estimates to move higher.
But an open question is whether defense spending in the U.S. and Europe will be stepped up in 2022-24 and then flatten, or if it can grow annually as fast as or faster than GDP over the balance of this decade. That question is most likely going to be answered by what happens to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and to Russia’s capacity to generate and sustain its military power.
If its broad goals are achieved in Ukraine and Russia can declare a “victory,” the sanctions and export controls unveiled since the Feb. 24 are very unlikely to be reversed, particularly if Putin remains in power. Nor will the unity shown by NATO and the U.S. and the preliminary plans for higher defense spending be rolled back.
However, Russia’s economy will face major adjustments in 2022 and beyond. It will have to replace equipment lost in Ukraine, incorporate lessons learned from the war and, if it occupies parts of Ukraine, likely fight a harsh and nasty insurgency there. Its defense enterprises will have to find new sources of machine tools and micro-electronics, and Russian defense exports to traditional clients such as Algeria, Egypt, India and Vietnam could be curtailed.
Presuming that Putin remains Russia’s leader or is succeeded by someone with similar views, key to post-war adjustments will be how the Russo-Chinese strategic relationship evolves. Effectively cut off from Europe and the U.S., Russia will likely become more economically integrated with China, and their strategic/military cooperation will deepen beyond occasional joint military exercises. China should have an interest in supporting Russia, in part to keep U.S. military power tied down in Europe and not arrayed against it in the western Pacific. Expanding these relations will take time, as will development of technologies that are good enough to be a threat to U.S. and allied forces. This scenario—Putin remaining in power and Russia’s strategic relationship with China growing stronger—could be the most bullish for defense in the 2020s.
There are possible downside scenarios for Russia and defense as well. Russia could fail in Ukraine, and Putin could be replaced by leadership that wants to return to financial and economic integration with democracies in the U.S., Europe and Asia. That shift could remove Russia as a significant military threat and open new opportunities for nuclear arms control.
Another scenario is that Putin falls after a failed effort in Ukraine, and an internal security struggle results in Russia. That scenario could still be broadly supportive of U.S. and allied security concerns. Russia would remain a nuclear power, but its ability to equip and field advanced conventional military forces could be significantly degraded. Its support for regimes in Central Asia and the Middle East would diminish, which could have knock-on effects on regional stability and threat assessments. That scenario also might compel China to look more toward Eurasia as a source of instability, which could weigh on its aspirations in the Pacific.
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Byron Callan
Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington.
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Saudi Forces Are Adapting for Interoperability
Aviation Week - Tony Osborne March 09, 2022
The sight of Patriot air defense launchers around Riyadh are an eerie reminder that the country still faces attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels. These Patriot launchers are operated by the Air Defense Forces, which is to be merged with the Air Force later this decade.
Saudi Arabia has embarked on a wholesale transformation of its armed forces, preparing them to work better together and as part of international coalitions.
The reforms call for deep institutional changes in areas such as personnel promotions, acquisitions and joint operations and will even lead to some consolidation of what is one of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East and one of the world’s largest defense spenders.
- Reforms will merge Air Force with Air Defense Forces
- Transformation program due to be completed in 2028
Plans for the reforms date back to 2015, when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was then defense minister, proposed a modernization of the ministry and its armed forces. This prompted the writing of a new defense strategy and development of a new operating model. A new defense strategy was approved in 2017, and a royal decree was issued in 2018.
Few details of the defense ministry’s Transformation Program had emerged until the inaugural World Defense Show, held near Riyadh on March 6-9, where senior officers openly discussed the project’s aims and progress.
The changes will make the forces more “task-oriented, more professional,” and they will benefit from “better governance,” senior officers told Aviation Week at the show. In all, some 300 initiatives are being rolled out until about 2028, when the reforms are due to be completed.
Perhaps the most eye-catching of the changes are plans to merge two of the country’s five armed services—the Royal Saudi Air Force and Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces—combining them under the new banner of the Royal Saudi Air and Space Force. Details of the consolidation, including the structure and doctrines, are still to be worked out. But officers tell Aviation Week that the operating model concluded that similar tasks of the two forces would be optimized under a single force structure. Both organizations have worked closely to protect Saudi cities and critical infrastructure from the drone, cruise and ballistic missile attacks launched by the Houthi militants in Yemen.
Another change has been a more centralized approach to procurement with the formation in 2018 of a single organization, the Arms and Materiel Deputyship, which has taken control of acquisition from the individual armed forces. This development has led to more efficient procurements, officials say, including joint equipment purchases.
Other plans include the creation of a Joint Forces Command, similar to those established in Europe and the U.S., to boost interoperability between the various armed services. That command is expected to reach an initial operational capability in the coming months. The defense ministry is also creating a National Defense University, building on the existing capabilities of Riyadh’s staff colleges.
The changes to the armed forces are part of bin Salman’s broader reforms to the Saudi state, under his Vision 2030 project to diversify the economy away from its reliance on oil. One target of these efforts is the localization of up to 50% of the country’s defense procurements through the creation of a local defense industry. To oversee this process, Riyadh has created the General Authority for Military Industries, which regulates the defense industry and guides the direction of national investments into localization.
A newly established General Authority for Defense Development (GADD), formed last year, will define defense research priorities and lead development and innovation activities. GADD is set to benefit from national plans for budgets increases in national research and development.
Senior officers say the defense ministry’s transformation program represents a third revolution in the history of the country’s armed forces. The initial Saudi Arabian Army was formed in the 18th century and became a branch of the armed forces at the beginning of the 20th century.
The reform process has not run entirely smoothly, and timelines for some of the initiatives have moved to the right. The merging of the Air Force with the Air Defense Forces is likely to occur toward the middle of the decade, later than originally anticipated.
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Tony Osborne
Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.
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Opinion: Ukraine Needs Russian Surface-to-Air Missiles, Not MiGs
Aviation Week - Aaron Stein March 10, 2022
As Russia continues to struggle in its military maneuvers in Ukraine, policymakers in Brussels and Washington are calling for NATO to target the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and ground-based air defenses to establish a no-fly zone. The term “no-fly zone” is deliberately obtuse and meant to mask the fact that such actions would require U.S. Air Force assets to directly attack an adversary’s assets on the ground and in the air to deny flight and suppress any air defense. These actions would be acts of war.
The Russian difficulties in Ukraine should not lead to Western triumphalism or make policymakers cavalier in suggesting how to use American power abroad. It would be unwise to expand the war in Ukraine from a local conflict into a regional one.
The reality is that the U.S. and NATO do not need to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine to contest Russian aerospace operations. There is a far more creative way to exacerbate key Russian deficiencies on the battlefield without exponentially increasing the risk of regional escalation. The U.S. should explore augmenting Ukraine’s supply of road-mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.
The Ukrainians appear to be luring Russian fighters into the “kill zones” of their remaining air defense systems. By augmenting their air defense forces with similar equipment, this approach would exploit Russian deficiencies and further degrade the Russian Air Force while minimizing the risk of a regional spillover of the conflict.
To do so, NATO can explore resupply of certain missiles and launch systems from NATO members that have legacy Soviet equipment. Greece, Poland and Romania, for example, still operate 9K33 Osa systems—mobile, short-range SAMs that are compatible with Ukraine’s equipment.
This approach could contest Russian air operations in the western part of the country and provide protection to convoys crossing the border. New deliveries of mobile SAMs also could complement the supply of shorter-range man-portable systems, such as Stingers, to create a “poor man’s” integrated air defense system in western Ukraine.
The VKS has struggled to suppress Ukraine’s SAM inventory and has not been able to strike the entirety of Kyiv’s fixed-wing and unmanned platforms on the ground. U.S. assessments find that Ukraine is flying sorties, and online video clearly shows the Bayraktar TB2 is still flying and destroying targets.
The VKS now finds itself in a situation broadly analogous to the war in Kosovo, in which NATO pilots faced Soviet-era road-mobile SAM threats and skilled operators working to “SAM-bush” them. The Ukrainians have shown clear tactical skills in operating road-mobile SAMs, reportedly by staying mobile and lying in wait to strike Russian forces as they have increased the number of sorties over Ukraine.
The comparatively limited number of strikes in the western part of the country provides ample opportunity for Ukraine to exploit. The VKS appears acutely vulnerable to pop-up ambushes. This should be exploited to deny Russian air superiority for the duration of the conflict, raising the cost of flight operations and continuing to wear down the VKS. It is in the interests of NATO and Ukraine to have Ukrainian operators, using legacy Soviet equipment, shoot down frontline Russian tactical aviation assets without U.S. assistance. This approach would obviate the need for a U.S.-led no-fly zone and would use a covert provision of Russian systems to make NATO involvement in downing Russian jets ambiguous.
The VKS has already suffered significant fixed-wing aviation losses. The situation is similar to the Israeli experience during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, where the proliferation of Soviet SAMs risked making the Middle East’s most formidable air force combat-ineffective. In 1973, American resupply and daring ground tactics turned the tide for Israel.
In 2022, there is no resupply for the VKS, and Russian SAMs remain lethal. The U.S. should exploit these two constants and use creative, nonattributional means to help Ukraine target the VKS. This approach would keep NATO out of the conflict and not require any direct targeting of Russian forces in a local conflict.
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Aaron Stein is the director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
* The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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Bloody Day In Ukraine Ends With Russian Advances, Setbacks
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble February 24, 2022
A bloody day of fighting paused shortly after nightfall in Ukraine with Russian invaders advancing across the country, although more rapidly from the south than the east and north, according to Ukrainian officials.
As darkness fell, Ukraine’s 4th Rapid Response Brigade reclaimed Antonov International Airport, only 25 km west of the center of Kyiv, following a counterattack that dislodged Russian special forces who arrived by air assault aboard Mil Mi-8 helicopters, Fedor Venislavskyi, a member of parliament and chairman of the state security and defense subcommittee, told the Ukrainian Interfax news agency.
If true, Ukrainian armed forces may have denied a key staging base for follow-on arrivals of Russian troops on the doorstep of defenders’ capital city.
But the overall situation across Ukraine remains dire. The status of Ukraine’s air force and air defense systems remain unknown. The air assault that brought Russian special forces to the Antonov flight test center lost only three of 31 aircraft in the assault formation, Ukrainian officials said.
Meanwhile, Russia media, citing the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, published unconfirmed claims that the Russian air force had shot down two Su-27s, two Su-24s, one helicopter and four TB-2 Bayraktar unmanned aircraft systems. Photos showed the wreckage of another Ukrainian An-26 down on Feb. 24, but it was not clear if it was shot down or crashed.
By all accounts in Kyiv and Moscow news reports, Russian ground forces made the most significant gains in the southern district, with troops pushing up from Crimea beyond Kherzan to the northwest and reportedly Melitopol to the northeast.
Progress was slower by Russian columns invading from the east and north. Citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, Interfax reported that Russian troops moved only 6-8 km westward from the border of the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. In the northeast, Ukrainian officials said they had stopped a Russian advance on Kharkiv.
The first day of combat was intense in places, but appeared to stop short of displaying Russia’s full military might, according to U.S. Defense Department officials who spoke on background. As Russian troops consolidate gains and recover from setbacks, a new barrage of long-range missile strikes and ground assaults are expected on Feb. 25.
Fifty-six Ukrainian civilians died in the fighting on Feb. 24, Ukrainian officials said. No official count was released of the military dead and wounded.
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Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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U.S. Studying How To Backfill Polish Fleet If MiG-29s Go To Ukraine
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine March 07, 2022
The U.S government is looking at how it could backfill the fighter fleet of Poland should that nation donate its aircraft to Ukraine to help that nation fight off Russia, though it is not clear that Poland wants to make that decision.
Following a virtual meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. lawmakers over the weekend, U.S. officials announced they were working with Poland to backfill their military with American F-16s if Poland donated MiG-29s to Ukraine.
A senior defense official told reporters March 7 that the Biden administration is discussing what options it would have to send Lockheed Martin F-16s to Poland, but such a process would take time.
“We’ve made no decisions and therefore it’s putting the cart before the horse to get ahead in terms of if something like that were to happen, how it would be sourced,” the official said. “The administration is considering those kinds of potentials.”
Poland operates 48 Block 52 F-16C/Ds, along with 23 MiG-29s. The Polish Air Force also flies 18 Su-22s and has ordered 32 F-35s. It isn’t clear where replacement F-16s could come from—if they would need to be regenerated from the U.S. Air Force “boneyard” at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona, or from units that are set to retire their jets.
Kirby said these decisions would be based on how many aircraft Poland would need and how long they would need them, and a permanent sale would “take some time.”
It also is not clear that Poland would want to send its MiG-29s to Ukraine. On March 6, the Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland tweeted that it won’t send its fighter jets to Ukraine, and Polish President Andrzej Duda also said last week that his country would not supply aircraft to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova, in a March 7 letter to Congress, called on American lawmakers to “take all steps possible with the administration to immediately provide Ukraine with aircraft and air defense systems,” Politico reported.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.Y.), in a March 7 letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged the administration to work as quickly as possible to finalize its dialogue with Poland and also to persuade other NATO nations with Soviet-era jets to send their aircraft to Ukraine.
“I understand this is not an easy decision for these countries to make,” Menendez wrote. “Asking them to provide their own aircraft, especially as Russia’s military aggression edges closer to their own borders, would be unthinkable except in the direst circumstances. Unfortunately, that is the situation the world faces. Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures and sacrifices.”
The U.S. defense official pointed out that Ukraine still does have much of its aircraft available, and Russia still has not established air superiority over the country. The airspace is “dynamic,” with control shifting daily.
As of March 7, Russia has fired more than 625 missiles into Ukraine as part of the invasion and now President Vladimir Putin has moved almost 100% of the prestaged forces into the country. The invasion has stalled near many cities, and the U.S. has seen a shift to using more long-range fires such as artillery and rockets to make up for the lack of ground movement and air superiority.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a briefing that it appears that not every Russian ground operation is fully supported by Russian aircraft.
“It’s not clear to us how significant their air operations are being in helping alleviate the lack of progress that they have on the ground, because they don’t seem to be fully coordinated between air and ground elements,” Kirby said.
Despite several reports of downed Russian aircraft, the U.S. assesses that Putin still has the “vast majority” of aircraft available, though there have been sustainment and maintenance issues, the official said. There’s no indication that more aircraft will be flowing in from elsewhere in Russia.
The U.S. and NATO are flowing more aircraft to the region to help secure NATO airspace. On March 7, the Pentagon announced that Austin ordered KC-135s and airmen from Fairchild Air Force Base, Washington, to deploy to Souda Bay, Greece, to provide fuel for aircraft flying air patrols over NATO’s eastern front. Additionally, two air support operations centers will stand up in Romania and Poland.
The United Kingdom Royal Air Force announced it has deployed F-35s from RAF Marham to Amari Air Base, Estonia.
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Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Opinion: How The U.S. Can Prepare for Air Ops Near Ukraine
Aviation Week - Aaron Stein February 24, 2022
As the world has watched events unfold in Ukraine, the likelihood of close military contact between the U.S. and the Russian Federation has increased. Moscow’s buildup of forces, combined with the U.S. deployment of forces in Romania and Poland, has all but ensured that elements of the U.S. Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will operate in close proximity. Although the Biden administration has stressed that the U.S. will not send personnel into Ukraine to fight Russia, the airspace over the Black and Baltic seas could soon become congested with aircraft of both militaries.
The force-on-force friction may share certain characteristics with recent American experiences in Syria. The Biden administration has determined that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine, intending to march to Kyiv and install a loyalist government. The risk to NATO members bordering Ukraine has grown, given the likelihood of spillover from the conflict, and the U.S. has pledged to reinforce NATO positions to guard against further Russian invasion beyond Ukraine’s western border.
The Air Force and VKS have flown in close proximity for well over half a decade in Syria. The two sides have managed to deconflict operations, but during times of tension the interactions were not friendly and nearly resulted in the use of force. The VKS in Syria used ambiguity to its advantage, exploiting the stringent rules of engagement that govern how U.S. airmen fly, and chose to use force to challenge U.S. operations.
In a series of interviews for my book, The U.S. War against ISIS: How America and Its Allies Defeated the Caliphate, American pilots described how during times of tension with Moscow about developments in Syria, the VKS would act more aggressively. The intent was to reinforce Russian diplomatic efforts, particularly over how to delineate territory in northern and eastern Syria. The VKS during these tense times would often “hard spike,” or radar-lock, U.S. aircraft, prompting aerial engagements between the two air forces. The two sides appeared ready to use force at various points, and only at the last minute did they break radar lock and retreat.
From the outset of Russia’s aerial operations in Syria in 2015, the two sides had a basic deconfliction agreement. However, the first iteration was built around an altitude-block system, similar to what the Air Force uses during training events like Red Flag, which proved inadequate when the two air forces began to operate around the contested town of Der Ezour. The Russian side was intent on establishing regime presence on the eastern side of the river, where U.S. forces were simultaneously taking territory from the Islamic State group. The challenge for U.S. pilots was that the VKS would not just engage with U.S. pilots but would also overfly American positions on the ground and drop bombs in close proximity to U.S. partner forces, which often had U.S. embeds with them.
U.S. pilots therefore had to determine how to interpret rigid rules in a fluid environment. In a number of instances, a Russian Su-34 would fly over U.S. forces on the ground while its Su-35 escort hard-spiked U.S. fighters flying in support of U.S. partner forces. Was the Russian action hostile? Did the Russians know that U.S. forces were only hundreds of meters from the aim points of Russian bombers? What should the U.S. do to try and hinder Russian action?
These encounters mellowed after the two sides agreed to a more robust deconfliction mechanism, designed to increase transparency about planned air operations. The two sides agreed to this in 2017, but there were no territorial “no-go zones” for either air force. The VKS would often fly east of the Euphrates River, while the Air Force would patrol specific areas west of the river. In more recent years, the situation has stabilized because the war has mostly died down. However, the dynamics governing force-on-force interaction have changed. The Russians now regularly deploy to Khmeimim air base the Tu-22 “Backfire” and MiG-31K “Foxhound” bombers, which can be used for the long-range anti-maritime role, and openly brandish missiles built to strike U.S. aircraft carriers, thereby signaling that the American presence in the region will no longer go unchallenged. The bomber deployments closely tie Russian aerial operations in the Eastern Mediterranean to potential operations in the Black Sea —a posture that mirrors Moscow’s arrangement of naval forces in both areas. The U.S. has a robust presence in the Mediterranean. The VKS can be used to keep tabs on U.S. deployments and hedge against U.S. Navy involvement in Ukraine—no matter how unlikely—by holding U.S. Navy targets at risk.
In the coming months, the U.S. should be prepared for congested air operations in the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean seas. The American experience in Syria suggests that the VKS could be used to challenge Air Force pilots in ways that skirt the line between hostile action and aggressive flying and in ways that resemble the congested airspace in Syria. These challenges are certain to come amid increased Russian military action in Ukraine, increasing the risk of accidental spillover from the Ukraine conflict in three geographic areas. The risks to the U.S. from the war in Ukraine are considerable, and the task of managing the American response will be carried out by the airmen flying in different parts of the world where Russia is now deployed. The U.S. should be prepared to operate in congested airspace, underscoring the need to incorporate lessons learned from the force-on-force friction in Syria to discern how Moscow will act in the future.
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Aaron Stein is the director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
* The views expressed are not necessarily those of Aviation Week.
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Embraer To Pause E175-E2 Program For Three Years
Aviation Week - Jens Flottau February 21, 2022
Embraer has decided to pause flight testing and certification of the Embraer 175-E2 for three years in a move that raises further doubts about the future viability of the program.
The manufacturer said in a regulatory filing that “as in previous years, the re-programming of activities is associated with the ongoing U.S. mainline scope clause discussions with the pilot unions regarding the maximum take-off weight (MTOW) limitation for aircraft with up to 76 seats, together with current global market conditions for commercial aviation and the continuing interest in the current E175 jet in the U.S. market.”
Embraer “expects to resume the program development activities following the aforementioned period, which will result in a re-programming of the aircraft entry-into-service between 2027 and 2028.”
Embraer had launched the E175-E2 assuming that scope clauses, which limit the use of large regional aircraft in the U.S., would change in time for the arrival of the aircraft as airlines would find the proposition to fly the latest version of the E175 so economically attractive that they would be willing to negotiate new agreements with pilot unions.
However, unions have not indicated any willingness to relax scope clauses, nor has the item been as high on airlines’ agendas as Embraer had hoped. Surprisingly for Embraer, U.S. carriers have simply continued to order the E175-E1 in large quantities.
Typically, the pilots of regional airlines operating on behalf of U.S. major carriers cannot fly aircraft that have more than 76 seats or weigh more than 86,000 lb. The 175-E2 has space for up to 90 passengers in a single-class layout or 80 in three classes. Crucially, its maximum take-off weight (MTOW) is 98,120 lb.—around 10% higher than scope clauses permit. Making it scope-compliant would require a massive weight-saving target that insiders say would be unlikely to be achievable. They add that further improvements to the 175-E1 are now being considered instead.
Embraer initially had a firm order from Skywest for 100 175-E2s that it had to remove from its backlog in 2018 as no scope clause movement was in sight. Following the cancellation there were no orders left. The E175-E2 nonetheless made its first flight on Dec. 12, 2019. Since then it has been in a slow-moving flight-test campaign. Embraer already delayed entry-into-service for the aircraft once—from 2021 to 2024—given the lack of market interest and the impact of the pandemic on airlines.
Embraer’s backlog at the end of September 2021 consisted of five E190-E2s, 154 E195-E2s, three E190s and 151 E-175s. Since then, lessor Azorra has bought 20 E2s; which can either be 190s or 195s. The manufacturer is releasing updated information on orders and deliveries on March 9.
The E175-E2 was launched jointly with the two larger variants of the family, featuring a slight stretch over the original E175, in 2013. Since then, what was once a highly contested market between Embraer, Bombardier and Mitsubishi has turned into a monopoly for Embraer now that production of the Bombardier CRJ has ceased and Mitsubishi’s SpaceJet has been shelved indefinitely.
Whether or not the E175-E2 project will be resumed will continue to largely depend on scope relaxation in the U.S. Any order from an airline outside of North America would likely not be large enough to justify the investment needed to finish flight testing and certification.
The E175-E2 news comes as Embraer continues talks with potential customers and industrial partners on launching a new large turboprop that would seat 70-90 passengers. Embraer has said in the past that the risk of the new turboprop cannibalizing the E175-E2 is low because, in spite of their similar size, the two aircraft address different segments, particularly when it comes to average stage lengths. Conversations on the turboprop are now focusing on engine selection and when a powerplant that guarantees a substantial fuel-burn advantage over in-service aircraft could be available.
Embraer plans to make a decision on a launch before the end of the year. Should it go ahead with the program, the aircraft would be targeted at an entry-into-service by around 2027.
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Jens Flottau
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, Jens is executive editor and leads Aviation Week Network’s global team of journalists covering commercial aviation.
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Bloody Day In Ukraine Ends With Russian Advances, Setbacks
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble February 24, 2022
A bloody day of fighting paused shortly after nightfall in Ukraine with Russian invaders advancing across the country, although more rapidly from the south than the east and north, according to Ukrainian officials.
As darkness fell, Ukraine’s 4th Rapid Response Brigade reclaimed Antonov International Airport, only 25 km west of the center of Kyiv, following a counterattack that dislodged Russian special forces who arrived by air assault aboard Mil Mi-8 helicopters, Fedor Venislavskyi, a member of parliament and chairman of the state security and defense subcommittee, told the Ukrainian Interfax news agency.
If true, Ukrainian armed forces may have denied a key staging base for follow-on arrivals of Russian troops on the doorstep of defenders’ capital city.
But the overall situation across Ukraine remains dire. The status of Ukraine’s air force and air defense systems remain unknown. The air assault that brought Russian special forces to the Antonov flight test center lost only three of 31 aircraft in the assault formation, Ukrainian officials said.
Meanwhile, Russia media, citing the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, published unconfirmed claims that the Russian air force had shot down two Su-27s, two Su-24s, one helicopter and four TB-2 Bayraktar unmanned aircraft systems. Photos showed the wreckage of another Ukrainian An-26 down on Feb. 24, but it was not clear if it was shot down or crashed.
By all accounts in Kyiv and Moscow news reports, Russian ground forces made the most significant gains in the southern district, with troops pushing up from Crimea beyond Kherzan to the northwest and reportedly Melitopol to the northeast.
Progress was slower by Russian columns invading from the east and north. Citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, Interfax reported that Russian troops moved only 6-8 km westward from the border of the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. In the northeast, Ukrainian officials said they had stopped a Russian advance on Kharkiv.
The first day of combat was intense in places, but appeared to stop short of displaying Russia’s full military might, according to U.S. Defense Department officials who spoke on background. As Russian troops consolidate gains and recover from setbacks, a new barrage of long-range missile strikes and ground assaults are expected on Feb. 25.
Fifty-six Ukrainian civilians died in the fighting on Feb. 24, Ukrainian officials said. No official count was released of the military dead and wounded.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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FAA Limits Pentagon Link 16 Access Over Interference Concerns
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 28, 2022
The FAA has limited the Defense Department’s access to the radio frequency band used by Link 16—the military’s primary battlefield communication system used for platforms in the air, on land and at sea.
The ubiquitous battlefield network shares the same radio frequency band with several safety-critical systems managed by the FAA, which requires an elaborate deconfliction process to make sure the military system never interferes with civil aviation signals.
Issue raised by data link cryptography update
- Agency’s certification infrastructure limited
- Exercises, flight-test plans affected
However, a mandated security update to Link 16 that took effect on Jan. 1 has not been certified by the FAA, which has given rise to concerns that the military’s test and certification process for inserting new software into terminals that use the data link is inadequate.
The FAA’s concerns about interference have already limited the U.S. Air Force to only “a few temporary flight authorizations for test and training” using Link 16, an Air Force spokeswoman says. The restrictions mean that military operators’ planning exercises and weapon system tests now face a shifting patchwork of regulatory approvals for the Link 16 network.
Some Link 16 users have already been cut off by FAA denials, while others, such as the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler, still enjoy a “mitigation approval” to use the network with certain caveats. But most surviving authorizations are temporary and expire in several weeks, with no certainty of follow-on approvals as discussions between the FAA and Defense Department officials continue.
The FAA says it is continuing to work with the Defense Department to “resolve issues related to Link 16, a frequency used by core elements of the national airspace system,” an agency spokeswoman says. Although the Air Force says frequency authorizations are now limited to a “few,” the FAA statement released to Aviation Week downplays the effect of the problem on regular operations.
“The number of uncertified operations, and the power they use for training and exercises, could be limited at times,” the FAA spokeswoman says.
The ongoing restrictions highlight the Pentagon’s increasing reliance on access to a data link that inhabits a region of the electromagnetic spectrum—specifically, 960-1215 MHz—controlled by the FAA as the primary user for several civil aviation signals, including secondary surveillance radars, distance-measuring equipment and the tactical air navigation system. During peacetime, the FAA allows the military to use the same frequency band for Link 16—as long as the signals never interfere with the civilian agency’s primary users.
Although nearly a half-century old, the Link 16 network’s role in military operations is only increasing in importance.
A Link 16 signal does not come with a low probability of detection, but it features an architecture that makes it resistant to jamming. This time-division-multiple-access approach carves the network up into 120 time slots per second. In each slot, one terminal is allowed to transmit, while the rest can only receive. To make it harder for an adversary to get a fix on a jamming technique, transmissions on Link 16 hop among 51 different frequencies within the 960-1215 MHz frequency band.
Other networks, such as Israel’s BNET, offer more bandwidth and throughput, but Link 16 provides near-ubiquity across air, land and sea domains. The Space Development Agency is experimenting with orbital transmitters for Link 16.
“Training should as much as humanly possible try to reflect the reality you think that combat will look like,” says Chris Daugherty, a senior fellow in the defense program at the Center for a New American Security. Link 16 is now a fundamental element of how large military operations are conducted, so training without such a tactical data link is disruptive.
“It would require a fundamental rethinking of where we put our sensors and how we design weapons if you assume that you wouldn’t have that ability,” Dougherty adds.
That said, although the Link 16 network is central to military operations, it is not exclusive. Lockheed Martin F-22s and F-35s each have unique data links that use stealthy waveforms to exchange data within their own formations. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is being upgraded with the wideband Tactical Targeting Network Technology data link to share data with Northrop Grumman E-2Ds and surface vessels.
But all of those aircraft still rely on Link 16 as the primary system for communicating with other aircraft types, including Boeing F-15s and Lockheed F-16s. Link 16 also has been adopted by the air and missile defense systems of the Army and Navy, and as a data link for inflight updates to certain weapons, such as the Raytheon GBU-53/B Stormbreaker guided glide bomb.
The Defense Department’s access to the Link 16 frequency band, however, is contingent upon the FAA’s approval. An authorization is required each time Link 16 is used in national airspace. The temporary frequency authorizations, which specify the location, timing, frequencies and pulse details for each approved usage, are stored in a Link 16 Pulse Deconfliction Server maintained by the Joint Staff. Moreover, each Link 16 terminal is equipped with a fail-safe system, dubbed the “interference protection feature,” that automatically shuts down the transmitter if the data link sends out signals at times or frequencies that could interfere with the FAA’s systems.
This elaborate deconfliction system has succeeded in preventing Link 16 from interfering with the frequency’s primary users for over 20 years, says Steve Horsburgh, director of product development at Curtiss-Wright, who previously managed the Pentagon’s Link 16 deconfliction server for the Joint Staff.
But the system has broken down due to a mandated software change rolled out last year for all Link 16 terminals and what industry officials say is a dramatic increase in safety certification data by the FAA.
The software change has been several years in the making. The military’s reliance on Link 16 has fueled concerns about cyber vulnerabilities. In 2013, the House Armed Services Committee publicly raised concerns that “many” of the Pentagon’s tactical data links “are not currently designed or funded to operate against a robust electromagnetic warfare threat.” In response, updating the cryptography on Link 16 became one of the first priorities for the National Security Agency’s Cryptographic Modernization Program. The Defense Department mandated that all Link 16 users had to transition to the new cryptography standard by Jan. 1.
Because the Link 16’s fail-safe system could be affected, any software change to a terminal must be certified. For years, the FAA has entrusted software certification for Link 16 to the Navy-Marine Corps Spectrum Center (NSMC), a small organization based at Fort Meade, Maryland.
The NSMC process allows the vendors for each of the different Link 16 terminals to perform a self-assessment of the effect of any software change on the fail-safe mechanism, according to two industry officials. A team of NSMC engineers then travels to each vendor to witness a series of two verification tests. If the tests show the software complies with the Link 16 deconfliction features, the NSMC passes the paperwork to the FAA for approval.
Over the last year though, the FAA has pulled back from the arrangement. The reasons for the shift are murky. According to an industry official familiar with the situation, the Air Force sent out a letter to Link 16 stakeholders, which identified two different types of terminals that were delivered to military users with noncompliant software. The finding comes as the FAA is adopting sweeping reforms to its processes in the wake of two Boeing 737 MAX crashes, in 2018 and 2019, that exposed flaws in the agency’s policy of delegating authority for certifying the safety of certain systems to manufacturers.
As certification standards evolve, the Defense Department faces a crunch on certification testing capacity at the NSMC, which two industry officials say is not staffed or equipped to handle the extra workload required by the FAA.
“There’s resource limitations at the Naval Marine Corps Spectrum Center,” Horsburgh says. “They were initially ordered [by the FAA] to recertify every terminal and platform type. And they have one testbed to do that from.”
For the long term, the Defense Department and the FAA already have agreed on a permanent solution to Link 16 deconfliction with civil aviation signals. In 2019, the agencies agreed on a frequency remapping plan for all of the systems in the 960-1215 MHz band. The FAA intends to move its systems to the lower end of the band, with the Pentagon’s Link 16 communications confined to the higher end. The shift will reduce the available frequencies for Link 16 to 37 from 51, but the chances of signal interference will disappear.
The frequency mapping mandate, however, remains three years away. In the meantime, the FAA and the Pentagon must come to agreement on a new certification standard for certifying Link 16 software.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Belly Landing Saves South Korea F-35A; Fleet Grounded
Aviation Week - Chen Chuanren January 06, 2022
SINGAPORE–A Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) Lockheed Martin F-35A was saved Jan. 4 when the pilot chose to land the aircraft on its belly following an inflight mechanical malfunction.
The pilot was not injured, but the incident prompted ROKAF to ground its F-35A fleet.
ROKAF Vice Chief Of Staff Shin Ok-chul told the South Korea parliament that the pilot heard bangs while flying at low altitude. Checks showed that all systems malfunctioned except flight controls and the engine. Unable to lower the landing gear, the pilot chose to land with the gear up instead of ditching the aircraft.
The F-35A landed at Seosan air base, about 95 km away from the F-35 home base at Cheonju. Emergency services sprayed fire retardant foam on the runway to prevent the aircraft from burning.
It is the first known belly landing of an F-35 in the world, Shin said. It was also ROKAF’s first known F-35 incident. ROKAF has grounded all F-35 operations until a probe is completed.
Aviation Week fleet data services shows ROKAF has 40 F-35As in service. They were purchased in 2014 and delivered in 2019. South Korea has shared its intention to buy 20 more F-35As and 30 F-35Bs, the latter slated for use on its future light aircraft carrier.
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Chen Chuanren
Chen Chuanren is the Southeast Asia and China Editor for the Aviation Week Network’s (AWN) Air Transport World (ATW) and the Asia-Pacific Defense Correspondent for AWN, joining the team in 2017.
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New KC-46 Charge Highlights Rift Between Boeing, USAF
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine January 26, 2022
Boeing on Jan. 26 reported another charge of $402 million on the KC-46, bringing the total cost overruns for the tanker to about $5.4 billion, and the way the company announced it highlights an ongoing rift with the U.S. Air Force.
Boeing and the service are working to fix the tanker’s biggest problem—its Remote Vision System—by overhauling the aircraft’s system of cameras, sensors and the boom operator’s station. But Aerospace DAILY reported earlier this month that a preliminary design review of the new system has been delayed because of deficiencies with a panoramic visual system.
“The charge was primarily driven by evolving customer requirements for the remote vision system, as well as factor and supply chain disruptions including the impact of COVID-19,” Boeing CFO Brian West said during an earnings call with investors (See story p. 1). “While we continue to work closely with the Air Force on RVS 2.0, the KC-46 is currently successfully flying refueling missions with operators having delivered more than 60 million pounds of fuel to a wide array of aircraft.”
In a follow-up statement, Boeing spokeswoman Deborah VanNierop said the evolving requirements are “continued RVS 2.0 development to include the panoramic display issue.” Even with the ongoing issue, the Air Force has said the overall development is on schedule.
“Despite the charge, again, which we don’t feel great about by any respect, but the tanker today is an incredible asset for our customer and now serves 70% of the missions that were intended in the development of the tanker,” Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in the call. “And our job is to continue to deliver the tanker and to do it more expeditiously as we move forward. The good news is our customer likes the performance of the airplane.”
The disagreement with the Air Force centers on the deliberations over the way ahead with the panoramic visual system and whether the need to fix it is an “evolving” requirement.
The panoramic vision system consists of three cameras on the belly of the aircraft, which feed into three screens in the boom operator’s station. The cameras stitch together a 185-deg. view of the areas behind the aircraft to detect incoming receivers. The Air Force requires the system to be able to detect an incoming receiver at a sufficient distance so the boom operator can prepare the refueling operation. But the current system is not able to automatically detect the receiver to the extent the Air Force wants.
The service wants the fix to the panoramic display system included as part of the RVS 2.0 preliminary design review, because any changes after closing the PDR would come at an additional cost to the Air Force. Boeing contends the panoramic visual system fix is not a requirement of the RVS 2.0 plan, and as such it would require separate funding.
“The [Department of the Air Force] has not yet accepted the completed design or closed the PDR,” the service said earlier this month. “The RVS 2.0 design will be incorporated into the contract and become a government-furnished design specification at PDR closure.”
Air Mobility Command in a statement said it remains confident that the joint Air Force and Boeing technical team will identify and address the deficiencies. The PDR closure was originally expected in the fall of 2021.
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Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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Missed Communication: Cessnas Collide, Part 1
Aviation Week - Roger Cox January 05, 2022
Editor's Note: This is the first of two parts.
No one is immune to small lapses in concentration. Most of the time a brief lack of focus or awareness is harmless.
When the lapses involve radio communications at an uncontrolled airport, however, the results can be fatal.
Before two airplanes collided right in the middle of the Marion Municipal Airport in Marion, Indiana, each pilot had the opportunity to make a radio call at the right moment that would have prevented the accident, but neither one did.
Limits to visual lines of sight on the airport also partly obscured the pilots’ view of one another at critical moments.
The two airplanes were at opposite ends of the performance spectrum. One was a corporate jet, the other a small trainer. The pilots were at opposite ends of the experience spectrum, too. One had more than 35,000 hrs. of flight time, the other had only 71 hrs. But they were equals in the traffic pattern and had equal responsibilities to communicate.
The date of the accident was April 2, 2018. On that afternoon, skies at Marion were clear but hazy. It was chilly, 5 deg. C (41 F), and the wind, 140 deg. at 9 kt, favored runway 15. Marion has two runways, 15 and 22, which intersect at midfield. The airport has a universal communications (UNICOM) frequency, 122.7, but no tower.
The jet aircraft, N511AC, was a Cessna 525C (Citation CJ4) on a business flight. It was inbound to Marion from the north after a full day of flying. The airplane had departed Marion at 0815 EDT with four employees aboard. It had stopped at Jackson, Michigan, Oakland/Troy airport near Detroit, and then Jackson again before heading back to Marion.
At 1706, the Citation pilot reported Marion airport in sight and was cleared for a straight-in visual approach to runway 22 by Grissom Approach Control. The pilot spotted an aircraft on his cockpit traffic display, but it was not the other accident airplane. At that point, the pilot canceled his IFR clearance.
Grissom Approach reported there was no traffic between the airplane and the field, and approved a change to the advisory frequency. It was 1707.
Just minutes earlier, the Cessna 150, N5614E, had begun to taxi from Marion’s ramp. After wending his way to the intersection of the two runways, he announced on UNICOM that he was back taxiing on runway 15. The Cessna 150 pilot made no further radio calls, but proceeded down to the end of the runway, turned around and began his takeoff.
At 1709, as the jet was rolling through the intersection of the two runways, the Cessna 150 struck the empennage of the jet.
A witness said the Cessna 150 was about 10 ft. off the ground and pulled up steeply before striking the jet. Another witness said there was a “pop,” the airplane burst into flame and then became a fireball where it came to rest. Neither the pilot nor the passenger of the C-150 survived.
The pilot of the jet saw a flash out of the right side window and felt a yaw, but he said the airplane didn’t move much.
He brought the airplane to a stop, then turned around on the runway and taxied back to the runway intersection. He shut the engines down, opened the door and went to the other airplane.
Seeing one person, he checked him but found no signs of life. He then returned to his airplane and helped his passengers disembark. No one aboard the jet was injured. A passenger called 911 to report the accident.
The Investigation
The NTSB’s investigator in charge (IIC) was assisted by two FAA inspectors, an investigator from Cessna (Textron), the jet’s manufacturer, and an aerial imagery specialist. The imagery expert used a DJI Phantom 4 drone to survey the accident site.
The Cessna 150 was located on the grass next to runway 15. Due to extensive fire damage, the available evidence was limited. The left wing was crushed, the flight control cable continuity was established, and the seat belt buckles were latched. Investigators were unable to establish the elevator trim setting, the flaps position, the fuel selector position or the transponder setting or status. There was no evidence of any airframe or engine abnormalities prior to the collision.
The jet’s tail section was in the grass near runway 22. The rudder and elevators were still attached to their respective stabilizers.
There was some damage to the right engine’s nacelle and to the leading edge of the vertical stabilizer, but the flight control cables remained connected. The cockpit controls and most of the airplane was intact. The airplane had not apparently experienced any malfunctions before the collision.
The aerial imagery specialist was able to photograph and map the airport area, including the infield, the runway intersection and the impact areas. In addition to documenting the wreckage, the drone photos were used to assess how well the pilots of the two airplanes could see one another just before the collision.
The specialist created an orthomosaic terrain map by flying a grid pattern over the airport, and took oblique photos of the VOR station located on the field and of the two aircraft. By flying the drone along the two runways, the specialist was able to approximate the viewpoint of the two pilots just prior to the collision.
Accuracy of locations and elevations on the airport was increased by use of a nearby GPS ground station and georeferencing software. The elevations were accurate to within 3.5 in. and positions to within 5.3 in.
Geographic data collected by the drone showed that there were points along runway 15 where the C-150 pilot would not have been able to see the landing jet at heights below 10 ft. because his view was blocked by the VOR station.
Marion Municipal Airport (KMZZ) is located 3 miles southwest of the town of Marion, Indiana. It is a public use airport and has been in existence since 1938. According to Airnav, there are 34 single-engine airplanes based there, along with two jets and two helicopters. General aviation constitutes 92% of the airport’s traffic and the airport is attended during daytime hours every day but Christmas.
The airport’s crossing runway configuration was popular in the tailwheel era, when crosswinds could be a more limiting factor to operations than today.
The airport’s terrain is basically flat, with the approach end of runway 22 about 8 ft. lower than the approach end of runway 15. Runway 22 has high-intensity runway edge lights and runway 15 has medium-intensity runway edge lights. The VOR on the field, frequency 108.6, forms part of airways V-11 and V-214 and provides a VOR approach to runway 15.
Airport officials were aware of the limited visibility by pilots on the two runways. All four runway ends had signs stating that traffic on the other runway cannot be seen and that pilots should monitor 122.7.
Please see the second of two parts of the Investigation and Conclusion in tomorrow's BCA Digest.
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Roger Cox
A former military, corporate and airline pilot, Roger Cox was also a senior investigator at the NTSB. He writes about aviation safety issues.
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Pacific Operations Drive Military Seaplane Revival
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 19, 2022
Air Rescue Sqdn. 71 of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force at MCAS Iwakuni received a special visitor on Nov. 6: U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Eric Hill, deputy commander of Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC).
Hill had traveled more than 7,300 mi. to Iwakuni from Hurlburt Field, Florida, to get a firsthand look at a niche Japanese aircraft that has become the perhaps unlikely poster child of AFSOC’s new identity in a post-counterterrorism world: the ShinMaywa US-2 seaplane.
U.S. Air Force plans floatplane demo
China rolls out a third AG600 seaplane
Over the next few years, AFSOC plans to demonstrate and possibly field large cargo and patrol aircraft that can land on and take off from water—a job already performed by the Japanese pilots of Sqdn. 71.
“Flying an airplane that can land on water isn’t a new concept, but few aviators have the experience of amphibious aviation,” Hill said. “Gaining lessons from our partners will help us learn what to anticipate as we begin to build our own tactics and techniques moving forward.”
In 1973, the U.S. Air Force retired the last Grumman HU-16 Albatross seaplane as the ubiquity of ground-based runways seemingly rendered the age of flying boats redundant. Sixteen years before that milestone, the Naval Reserve retired the last of the once-numerous PBY-5 Catalina seaplanes that had proved so useful in the Pacific Theater of World War II.
Fifty years later, however, military forces are reassessing the value of aircraft types that do not require runways to take off and land. On Dec. 26, China Aviation Industry General Aircraft rolled out the third prototype of the AG600, a future member of China’s coast guard fleet that could play a key military role by resupplying bases in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, DARPA has revived interest in the Soviet Union’s famous ekranoplan designs, initiating a market survey last summer to gauge support for a possible effort to demonstrate an advanced “wing-in-ground-effect” vehicle.
AFSOC, a command known mostly for operating a fleet of land-based Lockheed Martin AC-130 gunships, has embraced similar ideas over the past 12 months. The command boasts a newly acquired fleet of C-130J transports designed for a counterterrorism mission but seeks to pivot to capabilities necessary for a conflict against a “great power.” Given that a new influx of procurement funding is unlikely, AFSOC’s leaders are focusing on adapting its fleet for new roles in a war against a peer military.
One such capability was demonstrated in December under the Rapid Dragon program. AFSOC paid Lockheed to develop a special pallet to carry several AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, which can be dropped from the MC-130J’s cargo ramp and fired at a target from farther than 500 nm. The conversion essentially transforms the MC-130J into a long-range missile launcher. Such a capability may not matter, however, if the MC-130J still needs to operate in the Pacific from vulnerable, land-based runways.
Last May, AFSOC moved to solve that problem, revealing a proposal for an “MC-130J Amphibious Concept (MAC).” The idea is to modify the 164,000-lb. MC-130J with removable floats, so the aircraft could operate from land runways or water, depending on the mission. Four months later, AFSOC approved the proposal and announced plans to develop and demonstrate the MAC by the end of 2022.
“This capability allows the Air Force to increase placement and access for infiltration, exfiltration and personnel recovery, as well as providing enhanced logistical capabilities for future competition and conflict,” said Lt. Col. Josh Trantham, the deputy division chief for AFSOC’s Science, Systems, Technology and Innovation Office.
The American military version of the amphibious-aircraft revival appears to have been kick-started in 2018. The U.S. Marine Corps’ Tentative Manual for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations cites Japan’s US-2 seaplane fleet as providing a possible solution for maintaining air support in the Pacific if land-based runways are destroyed or other-wise rendered inaccessible.
But the MAC demonstration later this year is still necessary. Aircraft such as the HU-16 and PBY-5 proved useful in search-and-rescue and maritime-patrol operations, but they still are limited by sea-state conditions and the corrosive effects of salt water on metallic airframe structures. Those problems could pose even more limitations on pontoon floats attached to the wings of an MC-130J, which lacks the keel of a standard seaplane.
“Being able to experiment with existing technology to evaluate design trade-offs and test a new system before ever bending metal is a game changer,” says Maj. Kristen Cepak, AFSOC’s Technology Transition Branch chief.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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Russia Flies First New-Build Tu-160M2 Bomber
Aviation Week - Steve Trimble January 13, 2022
United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) on Jan. 12 flew the first newly assembled Tu-160M2 bomber from the Kazan Aviation Plant in Russia.
The first flight lasted about 30 min. and reached an altitude of 600 m, UAC says in an announcement.
The flight of the first newly built version of the modernized, supersonic bomber follows by more than two years the debut of the first Tu-160M that was retrofitted to the more advanced standard.
The Tu-160M2 adds more efficient Kuznetsov NK32 Series 2 turbofan engines to extend the bomber’s range.
“The fundamental importance of today’s event is that the new machine is completely rebuilt, from scratch,” said Yury Slyusar, general director of UAC.
The revival of new production allowed the Kazan Aviation Plant to “restore key competencies,” Tupolev Managing Director Vadim Korolev says. The Kazan factory now houses the “world’s largest installation for electron beam welding and vacuum annealing of titanium, according to UAC.
UAC expects that further development of the Tu-160 will include the addition of new, advanced missiles.
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Steve Trimble
Steve covers military aviation, missiles and space for the Aviation Week Network, based in Washington DC.
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USAF Delays Closing KC-46 Remote Vision System PDR
Aviation Week - Brian Everstine January 10, 2022
The plan to fix the KC-46’s troubled Remote Vision System (RVS) is delayed as the U.S. Air Force and Boeing try to work through a longstanding issue with the aircraft’s panoramic visual system—how it meshes together a system of cameras to detect incoming receiver aircraft—as well as the quality of the cameras themselves.
View the KC-46 Program Profile
The Preliminary Design Review (PDR) of the “RVS 2.0” system began in May 2021 and, after initial positive reactions, Air Mobility Command expected it to close in the fall of last year. Now, the Air Force has recommended the PDR stay open until a fix is reached to address deficiencies with the panoramic visual system, which detects, recognizes and identifies receiver aircraft during refueling.
“Despite the delay with PDR closure, we remain confident in the ongoing efforts of the joint Air Force-Boeing technical team to identify and address deficiencies so as to ensure the KC-46 can safely perform its primary aerial refueling mission,” AMC spokesman Col. Damien Pickart said in a statement.
The issue focuses on three cameras on the belly of the aircraft and how the system integrates their feeds. The Air Force requires the system to be able to detect an incoming receiver aircraft at a sufficient distance to allow the boom operator to prepare the refueling operation. As it stands now, the system is not able to automatically detect the receiver to the extent the Air Force wants, and the operator in certain conditions cannot see the receiver from the required distance either.
During a refueling mission, the KC-46 flies with the panoramic system cameras on, giving the boom operators a 185-deg. view of the area behind the aircraft to detect incoming receivers. When aircraft approach the tanker for refueling, the operator activates the boom system and the main display in the operating station shows the 3D boom camera system with the panoramic display above on three screens.
The Air Force wants the panoramic camera system to be able to identify incoming receiving aircraft so the RVS can adjust its settings for the individual receiver—an F-16, for example, has different load parameters than a heavier aircraft like a C-17. In addition to situational awareness, the panoramic display helps with drogue refueling from the KC-46’s wing pods.
Despite the ongoing issue, the Air Force said overall RVS 2.0 development is still on schedule. Boeing declined to provide comment.
“The [Department of the Air Force] has not yet accepted the completed design or closed the PDR,” the service said. “The RVS 2.0 design will be incorporated into the contract and become a government-furnished design specification at PDR closure.”
The Air Force and Boeing in April 2020 announced they had reached an agreement on the plan to replace the RVS, which is an overhaul of the technological backbone of the system connecting the boom operator inside the front of the tanker to the boom at the rear. This includes new high-resolution color boom cameras, large color displays, major changes to the whole operator stations, improved aircraft distance measurement and augmented reality. Air Force and Boeing announced they had finalized the design in November 2020. While the boom cameras are being replaced as part of RVS 2.0, there is not yet an agreement on the panoramic cameras.
The quality of the camera system and this automatic detection capability is expected to be part of the groundwork for a fully automated refueling system. The then Air Force acquisition head Will Roper, in announcing the RVS 2.0 plan, said the updated KC-46 would be the basis for the capability in future tankers. This includes the upcoming KC-Y—or “bridge tanker”—program, which saw the Air Force ask companies about their plans for autonomous refueling in a request for information issued last July. The Airbus A330 MRTT is expected to certify automated refueling in daylight this year and at night in 2023.
The issue of the panoramic canted cameras has been a longstanding disagreement between the Air Force and Boeing.
“Because of this design [the RVS display] does this stretching and contracting of what the operator sees that varies across the field of view,” Roper said in 2019. “This thing is like a rubber sheet. It’s stretched in some places, it’s contracted in some places. And so their design proposal is to take out that rubber sheeting effect.”
An Air Force analysis suggested this canted camera setup would not create a clear enough display, and Roper suggested a redesign so the cameras are all facing forward, such as how the Tanker Remote Vision System installed in KDC-10s is designed. Possible changes to the outer moldline of the aircraft would require the FAA to recertify the aircraft, however, and the Air Force and Boeing are hesitant to require such a move.
The Air Force expects installation of the new RVS system to begin in 2023, with Boeing covering the additional costs. RVS problems have been the biggest issue keeping the KC-46 from becoming fully operational, with Air Force officials saying they would not deploy a Pegasus to combatant commanders with limitations. It is not the only issue being addressed, however.
KC-46s cannot refuel slow-moving aircraft like the A-10 attack jet due to a lingering “stiff boom” problem. The Air Force is working with Boeing to replace a telescoping actuator in the refueling boom, this time with the government covering the cost. This design is scheduled to complete in fiscal 2024.
“The Air Force is working with Boeing to ensure retrofit kits for the stiff boom are available as quickly as possible once the redesign effort is complete,” the service said in a statement.
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Brian Everstine
Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.
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USAF Chief Scientist Urges Focus On Autonomy Deployment
Aviation Week - Guy Norris January 07, 2022
SAN DIEGO—Following the revelation in December that the U.S. Air Force plans to launch two new unmanned combat air vehicle programs, the service’s chief scientist says tactical autonomy and the use of manned-unmanned teaming “will become the next step in the evolution of the Department of the Air Force.”
Speaking at the AIAA SciTech Forum here, Victoria Coleman says, “We really need to move away from thinking of operating platforms, which is what we do today, and think about operating a system of systems.”
Coleman’s comments come as the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) continues tests on a new class of low-cost unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) with autonomous control system technology under the Skyborg Vanguard program.
Targeting the integration of full-mission autonomy with attritable UAS to enable manned-unmanned teaming, the Air Force says Skyborg will provide the foundation upon which it will “build an airborne, autonomous ‘best of breed’ system of systems that adapts, orients and decides at machine speed for a wide variety of increasingly complex mission sets.”
The two new unmanned combat air vehicle programs—both flagged in the fiscal 2023 budget request—are expected to take tactical autonomy technology to the next level by operating as unmanned partners to piloted fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-35, F-22, and future Next Generation Air Dominance system.
But Coleman cautions that “tons of work” remains for the Air Force and the supporting science and technology community to bring this capability to fruition. The challenge applies not only to using artificial intelligence and other means to develop viable autonomous systems, but “also ways of validating, certifying and deploying these technologies in the field,” she says.
“It’s not going to be the first time we’ve developed something exquisite in the lab, but we’re not able to deploy it in practice,” she says. “So as well as developing these incredible new technologies, I think we always need to be on the lookout for creating the synergies and paths for the technology to be deployed. This nation of ours is exquisitely good when it comes to innovation. We don’t have an innovation problem. What we have is a technology transition problem. That’s what we need to solve.”
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Guy Norris
Guy is a Senior Editor for Aviation Week, covering technology and propulsion. He is based in Colorado Springs.
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